Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272001 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over New England will slowly build south into the Mid Atlantic region through Sunday. Meanwhile, low pressure will linger off the southeast coast Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Latest analysis indicating a weak surface front/boundary now into NC, with a broad area of high pressure centered over upstate NY. Still a very warm afternoon across the local area (temperatures avg 90-95 F inland), but dew points have dropped off into the 60s except over the far south and southeast where they remain in the lower 70s. Thus, heat indices are generally at or below 100 F (which is about 5 degrees lower than yesterday at this time). For tonight, scattered clouds currently over the SW zones should dissipate and result in mainly clear conditions this evening. However, light onshore flow coming off the ocean looks to gradually bring low clouds into the area after midnight. NAM tends to be too moist in the low levels with this scenario, but the GFS bukit data also shows ample moisture from about 950-850 mb. Have therefore bumped up sky cover to partly cloudy W of I-95 and to mostly cloudy from roughly 08Z through 13Z Sunday morning farther south and east. Some areas of fog will also be possible (mainly farther inland where skies stay mostly clear for most of the overnight). Lows tonight will range from 65-70 F over most areas (locally 70-75 F in the SE near the coast). On Sunday, as low pressure well off the SE coast is progged to slowly push a little closer to the coast, models to a varying degree show the potential for at least isolated to widely scattered showers during the late morning and aftn hrs for far SE VA and ne NC zones (will keep the forecast dry elsewhere). Airmass is progged to cool slightly from today, with highs around 90 F over interior VA, to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Skies avg partly to mostly sunny N and partly to mostly cloudy S/SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Not much change to the pattern Mon-Tue, another weak front pushes through the NE CONUS as a sfc trough lingers off the coastal Carolinas. Highs continue to avg in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s along with 20-30% chances for mainly aftn/evening showers and tstms over Se zones.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Going with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Will have a mainly dry fcst thru the period, except for slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Tue thru Thu fm tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area late Wed into early Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into the region for late Thu thru Fri, as high pressure blds in fm the N. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tue and Wed, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Mon ngt, Tue ngt, and Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to near 70 Thu ngt. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak cold front now situated in NC, with all showers/tstms SW of our TAF sites. NE winds average 5-10 KT (a little higher for KORF/KECG) and VFR conditions prevail. Some potential for low clouds overnight/early Sun morning and have included BKN IFR/MVFR cigs at most TAF sites from 08-13Z/Sun. The front will dissipate by Sunday/Monday with high pressure building over the area through midweek. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wednesday. There will be a chance for Isolated shwrs/tstms Sunday/Monday afternoon and evening southeast portions (ORF/ECG) and isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE... Sub-sca conditions will continue across the waters through at least the next few days. A weak cold front drops into the area this morning, with light/variable winds becoming NE by this aftn. Expect 1-2 waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Onshore flow below 15 kt will then continue into Sun, as high pressure slides by to the NNE of the region. Winds average 10-15 kt for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens and slides out to sea. Weak low pressure areas or possible tropical lows will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc during this period, and will cause long period swells to propagate toward the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-4 ft. && .CLIMATE...
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Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record).
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MAS/TMG CLIMATE...AKQ

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