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998
FXUS61 KAKQ 111523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1123 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A chance for showers continues across mainly northern areas
this evening and late tonight. Dry and warmer weather to start
next week before another round of showers and storms return
to the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler today, despite some more sunshine this afternoon.

- Clouds increase this evening, with a weak cold front crossing
  the region. Some scattered showers can be expected tonight,
  mainly along and north of US-460.

Latest analysis shows weak 1015+mb sfc high pressure over the
mid south. To the northwest, ~1003mb surface low pressure over
eastern Michigan, with a trailing cold front extending SSW
across eastern OH/W PA into W KY/TN. Scattered to numerous
showers are along and just ahead of this boundary, and will
continue to push toward the central Appalachians through early
afternoon. Aloft, brief window of shortwave ridging has pushed
over the Atlantic coastal plain. Meanwhile, broad upper
shortwave noted on late morning WV/IR sat imagery diving across
the eastern Great Lakes will dive across the interior northeast
through this evening, becoming hung up to our north late tonight
into Sunday.

Main focus for this update was to decrease cloud cover ahead of
the approaching system. Expect decreasing clouds late this
morning into the afternoon across the north, though thicker
clouds will linger from southside Hampton Roads into NE NC.
Partly sunny conditions are expected for most of the afternoon
but clouds increase across the west late today and this evening
ahead of the OH/PA shortwave and its weak surface reflection
approaching from the NW. Still appears as if most of the area
remains dry until after sunset.

The weak cold front crosses the region tonight with scattered to
numerous showers expected. Forecast soundings show limited
moisture in the post- frontal airmass but lift will be maximized
across the northern third of the area and QPF ranging from
0.1-0.25" is forecast for these areas. Little, if any,
instability is available tonight but could see a rumble of
thunder across the Northern Neck into the MD Eastern Shore this
evening where ascent is maximized. Low temps tonight fall into
the upper 40s to low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Showers linger across the northeast third of the area into Sunday as
the upper trough axis moves through the region. Cooler temps aloft
will allow for a bit deeper convection and have maintained a chance
for thunder for the northern Ches Bay into the Eastern Shore Sunday
afternoon. The remainder of the area will be dry with high temps
ranging from the mid 70s SW and S to the mid/upper 60s NE. Drying
out Sunday night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Warm and dry on Monday with temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Moisture increases from the SW Monday night with slight chance to
chance PoPs spreading eastward after midnight. Overnight lows will
be warmer with increasing clouds, generally a few degrees either
side of 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday ahead of a deep southern stream
trough. The local area will be solidly in the warm sector of this
system with the potential for showers and storms across the western
half of the area initially, spreading eastward in the afternoon.
Highs will be warmest across the eastern half of the area where
precip will hold off longest. Highs around 70 degrees in the
Piedmont with mid to upper 70s for areas east of I-95. Potential for
continued showers and storms overnight with lows in the low to mid
60s.

The upper low and surface reflection will be slow to cross the area
Wednesday with continued chances for showers and storms.
Temperatures will be warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s with
overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. High pressure builds in
briefly on Thursday but another system approaches late in the week
with another chance for scattered showers and storms. High temps
remain in the 70s to low 80s with lows around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Improving flying weather this morning with VFR and MVFR CIGs at
the TAF sites. Expect improvement to VFR at all terminals this
morning but bay effect showers and marginal MVFR CIGs may linger
at ORF and ECG through mid morning. N winds 5-10 kt this morning
become NE-E-SE with time. Another system approaches from the NW
later today with renewed chances for showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder tonight. Precip will be focused across the
north with impacts primarily at RIC and SBY. Diminishing showers
may make it to PHF and ORF late in the period.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible
Sun across NE portions of the FA (including SBY). Dry conditions
return Monday. Unsettled weather returns Tue-Wed as another low
pressure system approaches the FA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Lower Bay, Lower
 James River, and Atlantic Ocean through the morning/afternoon.

-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions return by this evening, and
 are expected to persist through at least Monday.

Low pressure is now well offshore of the NC coast this morning,
with a weak ridge of high pressure to the NW of the waters.
Winds are NE at 10-20kt with gusts to 25kt (highest south), and
seas are 5-7ft. Winds quickly diminish later this morning
through early aftn (to 5-10kt) as the weak ridge of high
pressure briefly settles over the waters. Seas should quickly
fall below 5ft by late aftn (perhaps early evening across the
srn coastal waters). SCAs run through 10 AM this morning for the
Lower Bay, Lower James, and Currituck Sound, and through 1-4 PM
this aftn for the coastal waters (due to lingering 5ft seas).

A secondary front tracks across the coast this evening-early
tonight. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and then
shifts to NW late tonight/early Sunday (with speeds remaining in
that 10-15kt range). Local wind probabilities show a ~20% chc of
sustained 18kt winds on the bay tonight-Sun, so will continue to
monitor trends (but no additional SCAs will be issued attm). Winds
veer back to the south and diminish to 5-10kt Sunday night into
Monday as high pressure builds over the coast. Another low pressure
system and weak cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, with low-end SCAs possible with S winds
Tuesday evening-Tuesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

-Key Messages:

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended through tonight/early
Sunday AM for all areas adjacent to the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay.

-Minor to locally moderate tidal flooding (inundation of 1 to
locally 2 feet above ground level in vulnerable areas) is expected
during high tide tonight into early Sunday.

The elevated N-NE wind (along with a decent flood tide at the mouth
of the bay) has allowed tidal anomalies to rise to ~1.5ft above
normal. Combined with the high astronomical tides, this has resulted
in widespread minor tidal flooding with a few sites briefly
exceeding moderate flood thresholds. With winds becoming SE then S
later today and tonight, tidal anomalies will fall in the lower Ches
Bay and along the Atlantic coast, while rising a bit in the
mid/upper bay. With today`s high tide being the lower of the two
astronomical tides, no worse than nuisance to locally minor tidal
flooding is expected. However, widespread minor to locally moderate
tidal flooding is expected tonight/early Sunday AM in the mid/upper
bay, with nuisance flooding farther south. Have extended all Coastal
Flood Advisories until Sunday AM from Mathews County north to
Lewisetta in addition to the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. At
this time, it looks like Lewisetta, Crisfield, and Bishop`s Head
stand the best chance of seeing (low-end) moderate flooding tonight.
Will monitor trends, but confidence is not high enough (and the
event does not look to be widespread enough) to issue warnings attm.
May need a round of statements with perhaps a few advisories tonight-
early Sun for areas near the lower bay/adjacent tidal rivers, but
will allow the next shift to issue those.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ075>078-
     085-086-521-522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...