Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140258 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 958 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROUGH OVER THE NE STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. COLD NIGHT UNDERWAY ACRS THE REGION WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACRS NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA (THOUGH WINDS ARE DIMINISHING TO SOME EXTENT). CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE WHERE SCT/BKN CU PERSIST DUE TO COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE BAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS RAGING FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...SOME LINGERING CLDS ACRS THE ERN SHORE THROUGH 06Z...OTRW SKC OVERNIGHT. SFC HI PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. WINDS QUICKER TO DIMINISH INLAND THAN AT THE CST. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID/UPR TEENS. WIND CHILL ADSY RMNG IN PLACE FOR NRN NECK VA TO THE ERN SHORE FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING TO ZERO TO ARND 5 BLO ZERO. LOWEST WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE TO FALL TO 0 TO 5 ABOVE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... NR 1035MB ARCTIC HI PRES TO BE OVR THE RGN SUN. WNDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TDA. STARTING OUT VERY COLD. NEXT LO PRES SYS WILL BE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUN...SPREADING AT LEAST HI LVL MOISTURE TO THE MTNS (AND PTNTLLY THIS FAR E) DURING THE AFTN/EVE. DESPITE MNLY SUNNY CONDS...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV THE L-M20S NR THE CST AND M-U20S INLAND. SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST AND TWD NEW ENG SUN NGT. NEXT SYS FM THE WNW PUSHES MOISTURE OVR THE MTNS...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AFT MDNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR PTYPE AS SN MOST PLACES IN FA THROUGH EARLY-MID MRNG MON. MDLS (GFS LESS AGRESSIVE/SLOWER THAN THE NAM) SHOWING WARM AIR PUSH NWD ABV THE SFC LYR BEGINNING FM 12-18Z/15...INITIALLY ACRS NE NC-FAR SRN VA...THEN POINTS N BY LT MON AFTN/MON EVE. GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR IS INITIALLY...AND SN RATIOS UPWARDS OF 15:1...XPCG A GENERAL 1-4" SN ACCUM ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA...A TRACE-1" PSBL ALL THE WAY TO THE CST...W/ PSBL EXCEPTION ACRS CSTL NE NC. TRANSITION OF SN TO (A SHORT PD OF?) IP...THEN ZR/RA IS DIFFICULT TO TIME (FOR ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION) ATTM...ESP ALG-W OF I 95 WHERE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL RMN STUBBORN AND TOUGH TO DISLODGE QUICKLY. KEEPING TEMPS AOB 32F FOR MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN CNTRL VA THROUGH 00-03Z/16. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A TENTH OR TWO PSBL W OF I 95...GREATEST ALG-W OF A FVX-LKU LINE. RA...PSBLY MDT-HVY...XPCD TO EVENTUALLY WIN OUT OVR MOST OF THE AREA MON AFTN THROUGH MON EVE...THEN CONT INTO TUE MRNG. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF ZR ACRS PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES INTO THE OVRNGT HRS MON NGT. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE MID- UPR TEENS TO L20S...THOUGH TENDING TO SLOLY RISE LATE. HI TEMPS XPCD LT IN THE DAY MON...RANGING FM THE L30S NW OF RIC TO ARND 50F IN SE VA/NE NC. TEMPS MON NGT STEADY OR RISING. WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA DUE TO COMBO OF SN/ICE ACCUMS RESULTING IN A PSBL HIGH IMPACT EVENT. THE MRNG COMMUTE ACRS MANY AREAS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED DUE TO SN...THOUGH ATTM APRS HIGHEST PROB FOR THAT WOULD BE ACRS CNTRL/INTERIOR SRN VA-FAR INTERIOR NE NC. BY TUE AFTN...PCPN XPCD TO QUICKLY EXIT AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG FCST TO OCCUR. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE ARND 50F WELL INLAND TO ARND 60S IN SE VA/NE NC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITHIN -1 ST DEV. A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID WEEK. GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT ORF AND SBY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY TURNS TO A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FROM SE TO NW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE PSBL AT RIC MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. PCPN DIMINISHES FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... 7 PM UPDATE...LOWERED GALE WARNING IN THE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. GALE WARNING CONTINUES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SCA REMAINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN IN A GENERAL DECLINE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SOUTH OF SMITH POINT AND SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP GALE WARNING BY MIDNIGHT. IF SIMILAR TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE GALE WARMING EARLY...HOWEVER OPTED TO LEAVE IT IN PLACE THRU SUN MORNING FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS EVENING. ONCE GALES COME DOWN...WILL NEED TO REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SUN AFTN. CURRENT SCA`S FOR THE LOWER BAY/RIVERS/SOUND GO THRU SUN MORN. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON FROM THE E- SE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SLIDES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODESTLY STRONG SSE WINDS OF 20-25KT TO DEVELOP WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 5-9FT AND WAVES TO 3-4FT (UP TO 5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY). SCA WINDS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WED DUE TO A LESS POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NRN VA WED MORNING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW...BUT NO LOW WATER ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR AKQ WATERS WITH MIN LEVELS GENLY TO AROUND -0.5 FT MLLW AT LOW TIDE.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511-513-515. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-085- 099-521-522. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634-650-652-654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD/DAP/LSA MARINE...JDM/LSA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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