Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011420 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1020 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A complex area of low pressure will track north across the Mid Atlantic region today with its trailing cold front moving offshore late tonight. High pressure builds across the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Current radar data depicts an area of showers with a few embedded tstms tracking nwd across the VA Ern Shore. This activity is associated with a moist plume ahead of a stubborn upper low to the west and shortwave energy rotating around the upper low. Rainfall rates have diminished over the past hour, but this will need to be monitored closely as 1hr FFG is only 0.5-1.0" across the Lower MD Ern Shore. Likely PoPs (60-70%) will continue through early aftn for the Ern Shore, with 30-40% from coastal se VA/ne NC and along the wrn shore of the Bay. Overcast this morning across the area, with partial clearing by aftn from s-central VA into interior ne NC. High temperatures range from the low 70s nw where an in situ wedge airmass persists, to the low 80s se.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... More of the same tonite as the low continues to slowly drift north with the trailing cold front gradually moving offshore after midnight. Chc pops will be maintained along the coast under mstly cldy skies as another piece of energy works its way north ahead of the frontal boundary. Mstly clr to pt cldy across the piedmont. Patchy fog possible in areas that do sct out across the west. Lows range from the upr 50s nwrn most zones where some lwr dew point temps will occur to the upr 60s along coastal sections. Yet another piece of energy rides north along the boundary just offshore on Sun. Enough lagging energy to keep chc pops going along coastal sections into Sun evening before the boundary moves further away from the coast. Dry across the piedmont. Highs Sun in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Lows Sun nite in the upr 50s to mid 60s. Finally a dry day Mon under pt to mstly sunny skies as high prs builds into the area. Highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period will see a return of an onshore flow that prevailed during much of the past week. a stationary front will be situated well off the Mid Atlantic Coast with a strong surface high over southeast Canada rebuilding over the Eastern Seaboard. Upper level ridging will slowly breakdown during the week as a strong upper level trough moves across the Northern Great Plains. There will be 20 to 40 percent chances for showers especially over eastern portions of the area with highest chances Wednesday through Thursday night. Hurricane Matthew may influence portions of the area late in the week. Although the track is uncertain...it is expected that its greatest impact will be in the marine area. Check with the National Hurricane Center for updates and details. High temperatures are forecast to range through the 70s with Tuesday likely being the warmest day. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Based on latest radar trends of more showers developing ahead of the front, went ahead with a prevailing VCSH with a TEMPO group for lower CIGS/VSBYS in showers. TSRA was added to ORF per latest LTG strikes. Expect IFR/MVFR CIGS this morning with fog/stratus slowly burning off. Improving CIGS excepted all areas by 18Z as the lower levels dry a bit. Showers are likely ivof ORF thru about18Z and SBY about 21Z. Areas of fog will likely develop toward the end of the fcst period with local IFR possible where skies clr. OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected into early next week except for lower VSBYS in early morning fog given the wet ground and longer nights. && .MARINE... Update...SCA flags still needed for srn coastal waters where seas are averaging 4-5ft. Will carry through 100 PM this aftn until southerly winds become more prominent. It is also likely that the coastal waters from Parramore Island to Cape Charles Light will end later this aftn/early evening. Previous discussion...Latest sfc analysis shows a complex area of weak low pressure over the Carolinas/srn VA with strong high pressure centered over SE Canada/nrn New England. Associated onshore flow continues this morning, and with prolonged easterly fetch over the ocean, seas are continuing around 5-6 ft out to 20 NM. It will likely take until late this evening for seas to drop below 5 ft over nrn coastal waters. Winds aob 15kt today, shifting to a more southerly component later today as another area of low pressure slides ne through the OH Valley. Sfc high pressure then builds in from the north early next week, with sca conditions likely to return by mid week as the high strengthens and Hurricane Matthew slides north off the SE coast. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding Matthew`s storm track at this time, but the general trend will be for increasing onshore winds and continually building seas for the second half of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... River flooding continues across the primary rivers of the Lower MD Eastern Shore due to recent heavy rainfall, mainly the Pocomoke and Nanticoke. This flooding will likely continue through today based on latest levels and EM reports. See the latest flood statements (FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ) for more details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flood advisories are in effect for all coastal areas except VA Beach/Outer Banks Currituck through the next high tide cycle (late this morning through the afternoon). Strong/anomalous sfc high pressure remains over sern Canada before weakening this aftn as stacked low pressure over the Midwest drifts north and slightly east during this same timeframe. This will translate into onshore/se winds transitioning to more southerly (and decreasing) later today. As the winds shift and decrease, tidal anomalies will decrease incrementally by a few tenths of a foot with each passing high tide cycle. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024-025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ084>086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD/MAS HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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