Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290528 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 128 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast through the weekend. A backdoor cold front will drop south across the northern Delmarva peninsula tonight then lift back north as a warm front Sunday. The next cold front pushes across the region Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Adjusted grids overnight based on the IFR stratus moving north along the outer banks and the pesky stratus and fog at OXB. Otw, high clouds will overspread the area from the north associated with the convection along the frontal boundary ivof Mason Dixon line. Lows in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Bermuda sfc high retrogrades towards the Southeast Coast over the weekend, with stacked mid-high level high pressure amplifying over the Mid-Atlantic region through Saturday. Factoring in increasing dewpoints and decent south to southwest winds during this time, warm temperatures can be expected. Highs Saturday in the lower 90s inland (85-90F beaches). Local climate sites may tie or break records tomorrow. See climate section below for more detailed information. With the stacked high overhead, precipitation will be very limited due to downslope drying from south-southwest winds and strong subsidence aloft, which will limit lift/instability potential for convection or anything other than few-sct fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. The warm front, which is associated with the southern Plains low, is expected to stall invof nrn VA/Mason-Dixon Line Saturday night into Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible along/north of a line from Caroline County to Wallops Island Saturday evening. Any threat for rain ends thereafter due to the boundary shifting northeast and lack of daytime heating to support lift/convection. Meanwhile, mid-upper level high pressure shifts eastward and away from the Southeast Coast late Saturday night into Sunday, and temperatures will continue to be very warm. Expect lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 60s beaches), and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland (low- mid 80s beaches due to a slightly more onshore wind direction). Temps still in ballpark to tie or break records for maximum low temperatures and could fall a few degrees short for high temp records on Sunday. Again, see climate section below for more detailed information. The srn Plains low tracks NNE into IA/MN/WI Sunday night into Monday, and the strong cold front associated with it is expected to track across the Ohio Valley on Monday...approaching the Mid Atlantic Region. Slightly cooler Sunday night as high cirrus streams into the area from the SW-W in southwest flow aloft. Expect lows generally in the upper 60s (low-mid 60s beaches). Winds ramp up by mid-late morning on Monday ahead of the approaching front. South to southwest winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph should be anticipated. Models have precipitation progged to arrive in far wrn portions of the CWA in the afternoon. In reality, the orientation of the front and subsequent upper level jet are oriented north to south, which will likely result in a slower arrival time sometime Monday evening. Can shore up better timing potential over the next few model runs. Overall, the front is not expected to cross the region until Monday night with more widespread showers/storms anticipated. Pwats approach 1.50 inches by the time rain begins and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall should occur. Wind profiles are fairly unidirectional from southwest with low-level veering with height. This would suggest that strong to locally severe wind gusts will also be possible. Again, can shore up details as Monday nears. Temperatures could prove to be tricky as mid- high clouds increase from the SW-W as Monday progresses, however ample mixing could negate any cooling effects from the expected cloud cover. Kept temperatures warmer than model guidance with highs in the mid-upper 80s (low-mid 80s beaches). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front will move across the region then off the coast Mon night into Tue morning, with at least sctd showers and tstms in advance of the front. Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for later Tue morning thru Wed, as it slides fm the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Lows Mon night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Tue in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Tue night ranging thru the 50s into the lower 60s. Highs on Wed ranging thru the 70s to near 80. Low pressure will approach fm the WSW late Wed night thru Thu, then lifts just WNW of the area during Fri while pushing a cold front into the region. Pops will increase to high chc on Thu, then high chc to likely Pops for Thu night and Fri. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Thu night will range fm the lower 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Watching MVFR-IFR ST move north along the NC/VA coast early this morning. Thus, will have BKN-OVC CIGS at ECG/ORF/PHF through 12Z or so. Otw, extensive CI shield spreading south across the fa from convection to the north. South winds avgg arnd 10 KTS will likely prevent much fog development but guid does show some MVFR VSBYS at RIC/SBY towards daybreak. VFR conditions expected after 12Z as the ST burns off with only SCT-BKN CI and SCT CU throughout the day. SSW winds gusts btwn 15-20 KTS. Outlook...Mainly dry weather expected through the remainder of the weekend, although some convection is possible across Delaware tonight along a backdoor cold front. Next frontal boundary late Monday into Tuesday with possibility of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Sun. High pressure will set up off the SE coast for tonight into Mon, providing SSW winds 15 kt or less thru Sun. A cold front will then approach fm the west during Mon, then moves acrs the area and off the coast Mon night into Tue morning. Stronger SSW winds expected late Sun night into Mon night, resulting in SCA`s over the waters. SW or W winds and below SCA conditions expected behind the front for Tue and Wed. && .HYDROLOGY... Cashie River at Windsor dropped below flood stage early this evening...and flood warning has been dropped. Have continued flood advisory in Mecklenburg county through tomorrow, with VDOT continuing to report numerous roads closed in the Kerr Dam area, creating ongoing navigation concerns. && .CLIMATE... It still appears likely that Richmond and Norfolk will each end the month with the warmest April on record. Very warm temperatures expected through Sunday and an unseasonably warm April to date should combine to push the April 2017 average temperature above that which occurred in 1994. As noted below, both of the previous records on the books were established in 1994. This month`s temperatures look to end up around one degree above those values. Average temperatures / Record Average Temperature Through Today 4/28/17: APR 2017 Avg temp Record Location to date Avg temp Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 63.1 63.2 1994 Norfolk 65.3 64.7 1994 ********************************************* Record Lows/Highs for Saturday 4/29: Forecast Record Location Low Low Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 72 67 1956 Norfolk 70 66 1981 Salisbury 69 65 1974 Forecast Record Location High High Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 93 93 1974 Norfolk 91 92 1974 Salisbury 90 89 1974 ********************************************* Record Lows/Highs for April 30: Forecast Record Location Low Low Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 72 63 2014 Norfolk 70 67 1994 Salisbury 68 63 1983 Forecast Record Location High High Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 91 94 1942 Norfolk 88 93 1888 Salisbury 86 86 1974 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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