Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221659 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1159 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WILL ALLOW REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON...SOME PATCHY AREAS OF 32 F STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR WRN PORTIONS OF LOUISA/FLUVANNA (IN LOW LYING AREAS). EVEN KCHO IS 33 F NOW SO SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WILL JUST MENTION IN HWO. CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION. MEANWHILE...A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA NOW SHIFTING TO THE NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA AFTER 18-19Z (ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN 20-50% POPS). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NW TO AROUND 50 F COASTAL NE NC. QPF TOTALS AVG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20" NW TO 0.50" TO 0.75" NE NC.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC. TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC. TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. && .MARINE... SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU. WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.