Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242220 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 620 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure is expected to dominate the overall weather pattern through the upcoming weekend into early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return Thursday into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc high pressure axis is currently draped across the region from the Delmarva into Upstate SC. Mainly clear conditions exist areawide, except for a little more dense cirrus across southern VA and interior NE NC. Clouds will continue to dissipate through the evening hours with clear/mainly conditions overnight. Lows temps generally in the low-mid 60s (upper 60s immediate coast).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure axis shifts east of the Mid Atlantic coast by Thu aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a weak cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. Highs 86-91F inland and in the mid-upper 80s immediate coast as onshore winds become more southerly. Dewpoints creep up into the mid-upper 60s, which will make the ambient air feel more muggy. The weak cold front is anticipated to move through the area Fri aftn/evening. Temps warm into the low-mid 90s with dewpoints around 70F. As a result, heat index values will creep into the low 100s, however heat advisory criteria (104-109F) is not anticipated at this time. Expect isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to develop along the frontal boundary axis Fri aftn/evening... especially given the amount of cumulus development/coverage over the past few days (i.e. more than model solutions) and the anticipated influx of moisture/humidity during this timeframe. Although pwats are anticipated to reach 2.00 inches, deep moisture and lift will be fairly limited. Therefore, isolated strong wind gusts are the main impacts expected with storms attm. Any showers/storms that develop should gradually dissipate Fri evening as the front nears the coast due to loss of daytime heating/instability. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended still looks generally dry through next Wednesday as the upper ridging persists across the eastern half of the U.S. This will keep the upper jet displaced well north and west of the area allowing for dry and hot conditions to persist across SE VA and NE NC. A stray shower or storm moving off the mountains and into the piedmont, or developing off the sea breeze near the coast, can not be ruled out over the weekend given the hot/humid conditions. However, given the lack of any upper support and the very dry anticendent airmass will opt for a dry forecast at this time. Will maintain the slight chance pops for Tuesday into Wed as the GFS and the ECMWF suggest that the upper ridge will displace to the south allowing stronger W-NW flow aloft to move into the middle Atlantic. This may open the door for a few storms during the afternoons/evenings as a weakening front approaches from the north. However, again at this time the chances look pretty low. Back to true summer time conditions at least temperature wise as readings during the day will be right back into the low-mid 90s with lows only in the 70s. It will be much more humid as well as compared to the early part of this week. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc high pressure axis is draped across the region from the Delmarva into wrn SC. Sct-bkn afternoon cumulus has developed... primarily west of Ches Bay and also along a convergence zone slowly moving into coastal NE NC as anticipated. Showers are struggling to develop north of Albemarle Sound but still cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm late this aftn in far SE VA and coastal NE NC (east of the Chowan River). Cloud bases are around 2500-3000ft AGL where showers are possible...with bases around 4-6kft AGL elsewhere. Farther west, cirrus is coming off the srn Appalachian mountains and across sw/scntrl VA. All clouds are expected to dissipate around sunset with skies clearing once again overnight. High pressure axis shifts east of the Mid Atlantic coast by Thu aftn...allowing temps and dewpoints to increase ahead of a weak cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. This front is anticipated to move through the area Fri aftn/evening. Given the amount of cumulus development/coverage over the past few days (i.e. more than model solutions) and the anticipated influx of moisture/humidity, expect isolated to widely scattered showers/storms to develop along the boundary axis Fri aftn/evening... which should gradually dissipate as the front nears the coast due to loss of daytime heating. For the upcoming weekend into early next week, high pressure and dry/VFR conditions will continue to predominate the weather pattern. && .MARINE... Generally quiet conditions continue. As the high shifts to the northeast of the area tonight, southerly flow will develop and increase ahead of a weakening cold front/trough. May see southerly winds increase to 15 kt on Thu across the waters with waves building to up to 4 feet across the northern coastal waters. The front stalls out and dissipates over the waters for the weekend allowing winds to diminish to less than 15 kt for the weekend. Generally weak winds through early next week, although swell will be building by mid week as any swell trains from the tropical systems over the Atlantic moves westward. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MRD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.