Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240805 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 405 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will prevail across the Mid Atlantic today through Monday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria will gradually track north over the Atlantic between the Southeast coast and Bermuda. Maria is forecast to approach the Outer Banks Tuesday into Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current wv imagery shows a broad mid/upper high extending from the Mid-Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Conus, with surface high pressure co-located with the upper anticyclone. Hurricane Maria is gradually pushing nwd N of the Bahamas and well E of the FL coast. Additionally, an upper low is near the Nrn Gulf coast. Locally, the sky is mostly clear early this morning under the influence of high pressure. There is some patchy shallow ground fog. Temperatures generally range through the 60s, with some upper 50s over the NW Piedmont. The high will remain nearly stationary today and tonight as Maria slowly moves nwd. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm (+1-1.5 st dev) this afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 80s inland, with low/mid 80s at the coast. The srn fringe of the high will begin to break down late tonight as Maria continues to move nwd resulting in some increasing clouds across SE VA/NE NC. Elsewhere, patchy fog is possible where the sky remains mostly clear. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Maria continues to trundle nwd Monday with the deep layer high remaining anchored N of the region. Some outer bands of the tropical cyclone will result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions along the coast, with partly to mostly sunny conditions farther inland. Deep layer moisture remains limited with only a slight chc PoP for coastal NE NC. A modest tightening of the pressure gradient will result in a ~15 mph NE wind across coastal SE VA/NE NC with gusts to ~20 mph. High temperatures will remain above normal ranging from the upper 70s to around 80F at the coast to the mid/upper 80s farther inland. There is decent model agreement showing Maria reaching about 200mi SE of Cape Hatteras by 12z Tuesday. Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of due N as the upper low drops sewd across FL. Increasing moisture and some outer banded features will result in 20-40% PoPs along and E of I-95 Tuesday, with 40-50% for coastal SE VA/NE NC. QPF will be minimal for most areas, but there could be some localized 0.25-0.5" amounts for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Lows will generally be in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday night, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky. Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to 15-20 mph along the coast Tuesday, with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... First part of the extended, Tuesday night through Thursday, will be predicated on future track of Hurricane Maria. Latest NHC track is a bit further west than 24 hours ago, which increases the potential for some rainfall near the Bay/Ocean, somewhat stronger winds, higher seas, and some coastal flooding. Have utilized Superblend for tangible weather during this period, given potential uncertainty in the track. Models quite consistent after the daytime hours Thursday in taking Maria fairly quickly northeastward away from the area. in advance of upper trof dropping southeastward from Canada. This trof and associated cold front move into the region next Saturday /Day 7/. Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, with highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s Friday/Saturday in the wake of Hurricane Maria. Lows Tuesday night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around 70F, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the 50s Friday night. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains situated over the Ern Great Lakes early this morning, with Hurricane Maria tracking nwd N of the Bahamas. Mostly clear early this morning with some bands of thin cirrus. Shallow ground fog is possible through 12z (primarily SBY/PHF) with weak flow and decent radiational cooling. Any fog will dissipate quickly after 12z with sunny conditions expected today with a NE wind of 5-10kt. High pressure remains anchored N of the region tonight as Maria continues to track nwd. Mostly clear this evening, with increasing clouds later tonight across SE VA/NE NC with some MVFR cigs possible. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible where the sky remains mostly clear overnight. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy Monday with a 10-15kt NE wind. Increasing moisture and some distant banding from Maria will result in a 40-50% chc of showers for ORF/ECG and 20-40% for RIC/SBY/PHF. Conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday/Wednesday night will largely be dictated by how close Maria gets to the Outer Banks. A closer approach will result in breezy to windy conditions, especially at ORF/ECG along with an increased chc of rain and degraded flight conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and pushes Maria farther offshore. && .MARINE... Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas generally 4-6 ft and the current Small Craft for Hazardous Seas will continue in effect through Mon night (after that winds will increase and the headlines will likely be converted to the more usual Small Craft Advsy). Overall, expect seas of 4-6 ft to persist today/tonight, then build more significantly Mon-Wed, as ESE swell and increasing NE winds arrive from slow moving Maria. The bulk of the forecast guidance (as well as the official NHC forecast) still keeps Maria offshore of the Carolinas Tue into Thu, before it gets kicked quickly ENE out to sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance, have maintained increased winds and seas fcst for Tue-Thu, with at least SCA conditions expected all areas and the potential for Gales over the lower Bay/coastal waters (or tropical headlines). Either way, seas over the coastal waters should easily reach 10 ft or greater from Tue-Thu. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track of Maria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures this aftn avg 1.0 to 1.5 ft across the entire area. Minor flooding continues mainly across the upper Bay from Lewisetta to Bishops Head through this evening. The following high tide overnight/early Sunday will tend to be slightly lower than the one this evening but will be close enough to just extend the coastal flood advisory through Sun morning. Elsewhere over the mid/lower Bay, the water levels peaked a few tenths below minor flood thresholds earlier today, with the overnight tide expected to be slightly lower so did not issue any headlines for these areas. Water levels will tend to remain elevated Sun-Mon, but overall most places should remain below any minor flood thresholds. Will need to watch for additional flooding next week, especially by Later Tue and Wed (and perhaps Thu). This will depend on the exact track of Maria, but the potential for significant tidal flooding exists (especially over locations adjacent to the lower Bay and southern VA/NE NC waters. High Surf advisories likely will be needed by late Mon or Tue as well. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters continues through today, as 3-5 ft nearshore waves and 13-15 second swell persists. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075- 077. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD LONG TERM...AJZ/ALB/WRS AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...LKB/TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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