Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260148 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 948 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains offshore the southeast coast through Monday. A weak frontal boundary drops south to the Delmarva Sunday morning before lifting back to the north Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The current surface analysis shows 1036mb high pressure centered over QB and ridging swd through the Hudson Valley across NJ into the nrn Delmarva, with another high centered well off the Southeast Coast. A backdoor cold front is located between these high pressure systems near the MD/DE border. High clouds continue to stream overhead with mostly cloudy conditions across the region. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the 60s, with low 50s in the wake of the front. 4mb/3hr pressure rises from the srn New England coast into NJ are nudging the backdoor front to the S, which should push through the Lower MD Ern Shore late this evening, and then settle over the Nrn Neck overnight. Remaining dry overnight ahead of low pres lifting ENE from the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Onshore flow in the wake of the backdoor front could result in increasing low clouds across the Ern Shore. Elsewhere, a S wind will prevail under mainly BKN-OVC cirrus farther S. Lows m-u40s on the ern shore to the l-m50s elsewhere. Will have mention of patchy fog late (after 5 am) though not anticipating dense fog. Weakening low pres (sfc-aloft) will continue to track NE the Great Lakes Sun-Sun night...pushing a weak low level boundary into/across the FA. Only SLGT forcing aloft w/ this system...which will likely limit pcpn coverage. Did raise sky cover to mostly cloudy/cloudy ern shore and partly-mostly cloudy elsewhere. Upper level shortwave brushes NW zones late and will have a 20-30% PoPs mainly confined to the NW after 21Z. Highs Sun to show a strong gradient with temperatures likely stuck in the 50s in low clouds over the MD eastern shore, with l-m70s inland (in VA/NE NC).
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lows Sun night in the u40s- around 50F on the ern shore to the l-m50s elsewhere, with mainly dry conds and partly cloudy skies. Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains invof SE CONUS coast. VRB clouds Mon w/ PoPs mainly aob 20%, though will have a small area of 30% PoPs across the far N through midday. Highs should warm a few degrees compared to Sunday, into the mid-upper 70s over much of VA and interior northeast NC to the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast and over the eastern shore. Upper level ridging to keep it mainly dry and continued warm Mon night with lows in the 50s. Upper level trough pushes into the area on tue as a sfc cold front passes by late. continued warm with highs well into the 70s to near 80 F if rain holds off. There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs for now given some continued timing differences between the GFS/GEFS and slightly slower ECMWF. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure and assoc cold front will be pushing acrs the region and off the coast Tue night into early Wed morning, maintaining slgt chc or chc of showers. Dry wx expected for Wed thru most of Thu, as high pressure builds in fm the N. Chance for more showers and possible tstms then Thu night into at least the first part of Sat, as low pressure and another assoc cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Wed, in the mid 50s to mid 60s Thu and Fri, and in the 60s to lower 70s Sat. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tue night, in the lower to mid 40s Wed night and Thu night, and in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions over the entire area early this evening. A stationary front over southern Md this evening will move farther south later tonight. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to develop as the front moves into central Va by Sun morning. Winds will shift to N-NE behind the front and allow for lower ceilings over eastern portions of the area. MVFR and potentially IFR conditions will be possible early Sunday morning, mainly after 10Z, at RIC/SBY due to patchy fog/low ceilings. Conditions should improve by late Sunday morning besides SBY where low ceilings may linger into Sunday afternoon. A few showers will be possible by the end of the forecast period. Outlook: Unsettled weather conditions will persist across the region through mid-week. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible late overnight and into the early morning hours primarily due to low ceilings. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible late Sunday night into Monday and once again late Tuesday into Wednesday. Periods of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of precipitation. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon. Late this aftn, high pressure was cntrd well off the Mid Atlc coast. While low pressure was over Missouri, with a frontal boundary extending ewrd acrs the OH valley and PA, then off the NJ coast. The frontal boundary will drop down thru the Lower MD ern shore for late tonight thru Sun, before lifting back north of that area Sun night into early Mon morning, as the low lifts NE into the Great Lakes. Another low pressure area and assoc cold front will then track fm the srn Plains ENE and acrs the region Mon into early Wed morning. Other than winds turning to the E or SE for late tonight thru Sun, expect SW or S winds 15 kt or less this evening thru Tue. As low pressure moves out to sea late Tue night thru Wed morning, winds will turn to the NW then N arnd 10 kt or less. High pressure will build in fm the N for Wed night and Thu, with NE winds 15 kt or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...AJB/JEF MARINE...TMG

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