Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190520
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will cross the region this evening,
bringing a period of gusty winds and a chance for showers across
southeast portions of the forecast area. High pressure becomes
centered along the Gulf coast Tuesday through Wednesday, with
dry and breezy conditions prevailing locally. A cold front
pushes through the mid Atlantic Wednesday night, with high
pressure building north of the region Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Monday...
The latest WX analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure near the
coast in SE VA/NE NC, with a trough aloft off to the NW of the
FA. Radar continues to show some scattered showers from NE of
Richmond through east central and SE VA, though with very dry
low levels (T/Td depression greater than 30F), most of this will
not reach the ground. For far SE VA and NE NC, dew pts are
significantly higher with T/Td depressions 10-15F (temps upper
40s with dew pts in the mid 30s), and there have been a few obs
reporting light rain. Will have PoPs of 30-50% over the SE zones
through ~06Z/2am, with dry conditions elsewhere. It will also
be breezy gusty N/NW winds as colder air aloft mixes down with
gusts to 20-30mph inland and 30-40mph at the coast. Otherwise,
look for a clearing sky overnight with lows ranging from the
upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s coastal SE VA/NE NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Expecting wind
gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given
these winds and expected low RH tomorrow afternoon, wildfire
danger will be elevated. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue
night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with
lows mainly in the mi/upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the
warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front
which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Wed will also
be breezy to windy with continued low RH. Wildfire danger will
again be elevated. Highs will range through the 60s on Wednesday.
Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the
30s into the lower 40s.
One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and
wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire
weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see
the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50
on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south-central VA. Winds will
be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern
Shore, under a mostly sunny sky.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
The next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to
the area on Friday and possibly lingering into Saturday. The
ECMWF lingers rain, at least along the coast all day Saturday,
while the GFS/CMC solution is more progressive. At this time,
fcst will show a compromise of these solutions, with the best
chances for rain from later Fri aftn through early Sat. Will
have lingering chance PoPs Sat aftn through Sat eve. Highs will
range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower
60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low
60s next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...
A cold front has dropped across the region to begin the 06z TAF
period, with winds now NNW across the region. High confidence
that VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through
the period. Winds will remain ~8-10 knots early this morning,
before increasing to 12-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt this
afternoon.
Outlook...VFR conditions will prevail tonight through Thu
night, but remaining breezy. Winds out of W-SW Wed late morning
and afternoon, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday
behind another dry cold frontal passage. An area of developing
low pressure to the south late this week will bring increasing
rain chances late Friday into Saturday, with (at least) periodic
sub- VFR CIGs/VSBY also looking increasingly likely during this
period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
Winds this afternoon are generally from the N/NW at 10-15 kt. Winds
have actually turned onshore across the srn waters, mainly S of Cape
Charles Light and in the srn Chesapeake Bay. Seas are 2-4 ft
(highest S) and waves 1-2 ft. Into this evening, the pressure
gradient quickly tightens as a strong upper disturbance approaches
from the W. This will allow for a strong surge of CAA this evening
into tonight over all of the waters, with the potential for a period
of gale-force gusts in the lower bay and offshore of VA Beach,
especially between 4-9z. Gale warnings were raised for these areas,
including at the mouth of the bay, from 2-11z Tue for NW winds 25-30
kt with gusts to ~35 kt. Small craft advisories have been issued for
all other area waters through 17z Tue where winds quickly increase
to 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. The gale warning will also need to
be replaced w/ a SCA after it expires. Seas increase to 3-6 ft
during this period, with waves in the bay also increasing to 3-5 ft
given the favorable N/NW fetch.
Winds diminish some for Tue aftn and then shift to the W/SW, though
they may remain gusty to ~20 kt. Another period of elevated SW winds
are then expected Tue evening/overnight as another upper disturbance
slides through. SCAs look likely for most of the waters for this
event. And then for Wed aftn, deep mixing and higher 925 mb winds
could lead to continuing SCAs in the bay and especially the rivers
and Currituck Sound. A dry cold front passes S through the region
Wed night, with a surge of NNW winds likely with SCAs again
possible.
It looks more benign to end the week with high pressure
ridging down from the N. Complex fcst remains for the weekend with
cyclogenesis to our S over the Gulf Stream. The GFS and ECMWF show
significant discrepancies though have leaned toward a ECMWF/CMC
solution which delays the strongest winds until Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. The combination
of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility
of any fires burning out of control. The next chance for
widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After
coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding
NWS neighbors, we`ll hoist an Increased Fire Danger Statement
for all our counties for Tuesday, save the MD Beaches and OBX
Currituck. With winds expected to be stronger on Wednesday, we
will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of
our VA counties. For that reason, will hoist a Fire Wx Watch for
all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. Elsewhere,
expecting another IFD Statement on Wednesday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092-
093-096-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630-
631-633-635>638-650-652-654-658.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-656.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...SW
FIRE WEATHER...