Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201818 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 218 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST. EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND). FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE... THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-20KT ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-10KT INLAND. CONDS ARE GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE CWA BUT TAF SITES ALONG THE COAST...ORF/ECG/PHF...HAVE SHOWN SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES IN OFF THE WATER. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TREND THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES UP THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...AJZ/JEF MARINE...AJZ/JEF

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