Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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154 FXUS61 KAKQ 262006 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 406 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered well off the North Carolina coast through tonight, then pushes north to a position off the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday. Low pressure will strengthen near the Bahamas Friday night, and slowly move towards the South Carolina coast Saturday night through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Latest analysis indicating high pressure at the surface and aloft centered off well off the Carolina coast, with sfc low pressure near the Bahamas. Over the local area, very warm aftn underway with mainly S to SW winds and temperatures primarily ranging from the mid 80s to around 90 F (locally in the 70s coastal eastern shore). Norfolk has reached 90 F for the 1st time this year and RIC/SBY are close (see climate section for details). Seeing scattered showers/tstms acrs the Mtns drifting east into the Piedmont, though coverage continues to diminish as these storms push east/closer to the AKQ cwa where CAPES diminish to less than 500 J/Kg. Will continue with 20% POPS acrs much of the VA and MD zones through the evening hrs for isolated activity. Any sfc- based convection should wane rather late this evening, but a weak upper level shortwave could bring some isolated showers and tstms through midnight and perhaps an isolated shower after midnight acrs the ern shore. Very warm and somewhat humid with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s. Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains. So, will generally maintain ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid to upr 80s/around 90 F well inland, an increase in sse flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s to lwr-mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst to our south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence so have lowered POPS to only 20% confined to ne NC in the aftn/mostly sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper moisture finally pushes NNW into the cwa later Sat night into Sun morning, with PWATS rising to 1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast will determine sensible wx on Sunday, but overall looks like a very warm and humid airmass will be in place and should be conducive to at least scattered showers and tstms, so have raised POPS to 40-50% most areas. When track become more certain will potentially need to raise POPS more although the setup does not look like the complete washout, rather expecting periods of potentially moderate to heavy rain alternating with variably cloudy skies and rain- free conds. Highs genly in the upper 70s to low 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model guidance continues to support the development of this low by this weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic this afternoon, resulting in VFR conditions and southwest winds at or below 10 knots. Latest visible satellite imagery depicts cumulus popping across the region with ceilings around 5k feet AGL. Expect few to scattered clouds around 5k ft AGL to linger through the overnight. Fog is possible again over the Piedmont, but sufficient dewpoint depressions (warm temps) will prevent fog at the TAF sites. South to southwest winds remain at or below 10 knots. High pressure pushes farther offshore Friday with afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low pressure lifts toward the southeast coast into Saturday, lingering along the Carolina coast through early next week. Clouds increase and lower Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms possible into early next week. && .MARINE...
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S-SW winds 5-15 kt will continue through midday Sat before winds become more ESE at similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3 ft thru Sat. Watching for possible low pressure development off the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) * Prior to today, 1st 90 deg day had not yet occurred this year at climate sites, Norfolk (ORF) has hit 90 F today, with RIC and SBY possibly doing so over the next 2 hrs. (Avg Date / Last Yr): * RIC: May 13 / May 12 * ORF: May 17 / May 12 * SBY: May 27 / Jun 1
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday. New parts are on order. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...SAM MARINE...JDM CLIMATE...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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