Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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027 FXUS61 KAKQ 231457 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 957 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening frontal boundary will slowly lift north through the area as a warm front today. The next cold front crosses the area late Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The current surface analysis places a warm front over NC with strong high pressure centered over New England. Widespread stratus covers the region this morning with temperatures ranging through the 40s to around 50F over coastal NE NC. The front will slowly try to slide north through the area today, with patchy -DZ north of the front. Also included a low-end chance of -RA over northern areas though pcpn should mainly be in the form of -DZ. Partial clearing expected over far srn areas later this aftn as the front slides north, also allowing temps to rebound a bit into the low 60s there late in the day. Elsewhere, temps expected to max out in the 50s (only low 50s far N).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... All of the FA enters the warm sector tonight. Not much support for pcpn but fog will be a good bet, especially after midnight. Lows near 50 north, in the mid/upr 50s south. Offshore ridge builds back into the area Sat. Moisture slowly incrs with the best support for pcpn across the nw Sat aftn and eve. Otw, pt sunny to mstly cldy and warmer. Highs in the mid 60s ern shore with the 70s west of the bay. Lows Sat night in the mid 50s-lwr 60s. The next cold front approaches from the west Sun morning with the fropa in the aftn/eve. Models depict a decent feed of moisture across the mts but it weakens as it moves east into the Piedmont. Daytime PoPs range from near 30% SE to 50-60% NW. Highs in the 70s most areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... No major changes expected the the day 4-7 forecast. Still expecting a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. The front will be slowing down as it approaches the area as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. As such, will need to maintain chance pops Sun night into Monday for all locations. Am expecting everyone to see some light rain at some point, and guidance pointed to likely pops both Sun Night into Monday. However, given that the rain will be light and not continuous, we opted to just include chance of rain showers for that period. Once the front moves south of the area, dry Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic by Tuesday, then offshore Wed. The next chance for showers will be Thursday as the guidance suggests strong warm advection ahead of a deepening Mississippi Valley low pressure system. Despite the cool down from this week, temperatures will still be above normal with temperatures in the upper 50-mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s/mid 40s. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread IFR/LIFR to start off the 12Z TAF period as a backdoor cold front is now south of the area. Low cigs/vsbys will continue this morning, before some improvement from south to north later today (to at least MVFR) as the front retreats back N as warm front this afternoon/eve. Aviation conditions expected to once again deteriorate tonight. Region back into the warm sector tonight- Sun (though there may be SCT SHRAs). The next front will cross the area late Sun...w/ another period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during that period. && .MARINE...
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Back door cold front has settled south of the region early this morning, with NNE winds prevailing in its wake. SCA headlines remain in effect for the entire Ocean through 18-21Z where seas avg 6-8 ft north and 4-6 ft south. SCA for the mouth of the Bay for waves to 3-4 ft, elsewhere for the Bay/Rivers/Sound, NNE winds avg 10-15 kt with waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and genly 1-2 ft for the Rivers and Sound and these winds will slowly diminish through the late morning. SCA headlines in effect through 21Z/4pm for far northern coastal waters where NE winds remain elevated through midday and seas will be slow to subside to below 5 ft, tapered to 18Z farther south. Otherwise, the front begins to lift back N as a warm front later today through tonight. Rather weak pressure gradient as this occurs so winds will be on the light side (mainly 5-10 kt) later today and tonight as they shift from the NE to the SE and eventually to the SSW. SW flow increases on Sat but should stay below SCA criteria. By Saturday night into Sunday, SSW winds may increase enough for marginal small craft conditions with gusts to ~20 kt over much of the marine area. This cold front will pass through the waters on Monday with N to NE winds then shifting to the N/NW by Tue as Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions. At this time, not much cold air associated with this frontal passage so winds/seas look to genly stay below SCA thresholds.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record highs were set Thu 2/22 at Richmond, Norfolk, and Elizabeth City. Record high mins were not set as temperatures plummeted behind the passage of the cold front, falling into the 40s. * Date: Thu 2/22 * Site: Actual High...Previous Record High * RIC: 75 F......... 73 (1985) * ORF: 79 F..........77 (1937) * ECG: 79 F..........77 (2003) Very warm temperatures will return over the weekend, record highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25. * Record Highs * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985) 83 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012) 81 (2017) * SBY: 77 (2012) 80 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985) 78 (2017) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...AJB/MRD AVIATION...ALB/MAS MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...AKQ

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