Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240819 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lifts northeast just off the northern Mid Atlantic coast tonight and southern New England coasts through Tuesday. The low then moves away from the New England coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, as high pressure builds into the area. A cold front crosses the region Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Update...Sfc low picked up a decent amount of forward speed this evening as it moved off the Cape Hatteras coast and over the ocean. Its central pressure is located about 120 miles east of Ocean City, MD as of 915 PM this evening, and it will continue to track nnewd overnight. Have seen a short-lived surge in winds (primarily along the ocean side of the MD/VA Eastern Shore) this evening with winds occasionally gusting to 35-40 mph. This is due to a pseudo-dry slot rotating over these areas with a 90-100kt jet aiding in the ability to mix stronger winds down over the waters...especially as the mid/upper level low and shortwave energy enhances instability aloft. The combination of the elevated instability with low stratus ceilings in place will continue rain shower/drizzle chances areawide this evening, which will then become focused more newd after midnight as the upper low moves offshore and a deformation zone sets up across the Nrn Neck/Peninsula and MD/VA Eastern Shore. Only minor tweaks needed to ongoing forecast. Previous discussion... Latest GOES water vapor imagery centers anomalous upper level low pressure over central North Carolina. Plume of moisture visible just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast, spreading northward into the Northeast. At the surface, ~990mb low pressure has organized over eastern North Carolina, with the triple point offshore. Earlier clearing across the southeast forecast area has filled back in as low clouds have pivoted back over the area. Brunt of the precipitation has pushed north of the local area, with another area of convection observed across southeast North Carolina. For the local area, light precipitation persists from the Piedmont into central Virginia. Light precipitation will continue to pivot across central Virginia as the anomalous upper low lifts into the region and the surface low deepens just offshore. Convection to the south progged to push toward the North Carolina coast as the local area remains stable. Have removed any mention of thunder this evening, but due to the strength of the cold pool, cannot rule out a few rumbles across northeast North Carolina late afternoon into the evening. The surface low progged to locate just offshore of the Delmarva through late tonight as moisture pivots around the backside of the stacked low. Have retained likely POPs across the northeast half of the local area through late tonight. Additional rainfall amounts through tonight will generally be less than one quarter of an inch. Lows forecast in the upper 30`s to low 40`s inland to mid 40`s near the coast under a cloudy sky. Northwest wind generally 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level low pressure lifts northeastward away from the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. At the surface, low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, ridging northward into the Ohio Valley. Expect some lingering light precipitation Tuesday morning across the Eastern Shore due to energy in the northwest flow aloft and lingering moisture. Dry elsewhere, with clearing skies through the day. Breezy, with highs in the upper 40`s northeast to mid 50`s inland. Upper/surface ridge axis locates over the region Tuesday night, resulting in a clear sky and lows in the mid to upper 30`s to low 40`s. Ridge axis slides offshore Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches from the west. An associated cold front progged to reach the central Appalachians late Wednesday. Return flow will push highs into the low to mid 60`s (approaching upper 60`s inland). Clouds increase late Wednesday and Wednesday evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Spatial and timing differences exist, but general model consensus pushes the front through the region early Thursday morning. A potent shortwave accompanies the front along with a narrow band of high precipitable waters. However, the NAM and SREF are holding out on the moisture return so have kept POPS in the chance range (30-40%). Front quickly pushes offshore Thursday afternoon, with dry conditions expected area wide during the afternoon. Mild Thursday morning with lows in the upper 40`s to low 50`s.. Highs Thursday generally in the mid to upper 50`s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A broad trough of low pressure is expected to enter the region Wednesday night and into Thursday as a surface cold front slides into the area. Moisture still appears somewhat limited as the front crosses the region Thursday morning. Continuing to lean closer to a drier solution with the highest precipitation chances confined to far southeast portions of the area Thursday morning. Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning, an upper level trough builds into the eastern half of the US allowing for northwest flow to dominate the forecast period. Temperatures will return to more seasonable values by Friday and continue through Monday. Highs will generally be in the low/mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s through this period. The positive tilt configuration of the upper level trough will allow for high pressure to build in from the south and suppress precipitation chances through Sunday. Models are hinting at a reinforcing cold front passing through the region on Monday, but it appears as though moisture will be limited with this system. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong low pressure just off the srn NJ coast will lift northeast just off the New England coast today into Wed morning. Expect IFR/MVFR cigs at the TAF sites thru at least this morning, as the low will be slow to move away to the northeast. Cigs will lift to VFR by noon today at RIC and ECG, and gradually improve to VFR cigs at ORF/PHF this aftn or by late this aftn at SBY. Sctd showers will gradually end fm WSW to ENE this morning thru this aftn, ending last at SBY. A ridge of high pressure builds in fm the west this evening/tngt with VFR conditions taking over. OUTLOOK...The ridge of high pressure slides acrs the area and off the coast during Wed. Then, there will be a chance for showers late Wed night thru Thu morning associated with a cold front moving acrs the region. Dry conditions expected for Thu aftn thru Sat. && .MARINE...
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Low pres moves slowly NE along the NJ coast to just SW of Cape Cod by late today. Meanwhile, hi pres begins to build into the mid-Atlantic region from the NW. The NNW will average 15-25kt (gusts to 25-30kt) into this afternoon. All headlines (SCAs) remaining in place. Seas will be slow to subside into tonight and may not drop below 5 ft until early Wed. Hi pres gradually builds into the region tonight and slides offshore Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front crosses the coast later Wed night into early Thu. Hi pres builds in from the W Thu night into Fri.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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High surf advisories remain up until 18Z/24 as nearshore waves will be slow to fall below 8 ft along the Atlantic Beaches. Minor tidal flooding is expected invof Ocean City early this morning. Have added areas for minor tidal flooding (and raised a coastal flooding advisory) near the lower Ches Bay and adjacent York/James Rivers through early/mid morning hours. Minor coastal flooding also expected invof eastern shore along the Ches Bay.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MDZ024- 025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ089- 090-093-099-100-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ084- 086-095>098-523-525. High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ098>100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG NEAR TERM...BMD/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB/JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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