Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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730 FXUS61 KAKQ 262034 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure axis moves offshore tonight as a weak cold front slowly drops into the region on Saturday. The front may stall near the Virginia-North Carolina border Sunday into Monday, as high pressure re-establishes itself north of this boundary. Warm and humid conditions will persist this weekend into most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered cumulus is prominent across the bulk of the region this aftn. The cumulus clouds are anticipated to lift to 12kft or above during the evening and overnight hours...with the exception of far SE VA and NE NC where scattered cumulus should linger through most of the night into Saturday. Warm and muggy tonight with lows in the 70s and dewpoints only a few degrees lower than temps. A weak cold front to the northwest (extending through cntrl PA to the Ohio Valley as of 25/1900Z) is now expected to slowly slide south into the region during Saturday and possibly stall along/south of the VA/NC border. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure reinforces itself over the area as a mid-level ridge anchors itself over the cntrl Appalachians. Expect dry weather with warm and muggy conditions persisting through the day. Highs in the lower 90s inland/mid- upper 80s beaches. Heat indices will struggle to reach 100 degrees as dewpoints range from the upper 60s nw to lower 70s se. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The boundary remains stalled near the VA/NC border on Sunday and is then expected to wash out on Monday. Mid-upper level high pressure maintains itself over the cntrl Appalachians as the sfc high to the north slides off the New England coast. Thunderstorms are possible each aftn across NE NC and possibly far SE VA as shortwaves ejecting from Tropical Storm Gaston move onshore. Exact placement of these waves is still uncertain, thus only carrying a 20-30% POP on these days. Little airmass change anticipated, therefore expect a continuation of dewpoints in the upper 60s nw to lower 70s se and high temps in the upper 80s to around 90F. Although it will still feel muggy outside, heat indices will stay close to ambient air temps in the lower 90s. Lows Sat/Sun nights around 70F inland/low-mid 70s beaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Going with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Will have a mainly dry fcst thru the period, except for slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Tue thru Thu fm tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area late Wed into early Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into the region for late Thu thru Fri, as high pressure blds in fm the N. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tue and Wed, in the mid to upr 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri. Lows in the upr 60s to mid 70s Mon ngt, Tue ngt, and Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to near 70 Thu ngt. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sct cumulus prominent across the bulk of the region this aftn. The cumulus clouds are anticipated to lift to 12kft AGL or above during the evening and overnight hours...with the exception of KECG where sct cumulus should linger through most of the night into Saturday. A weak cold front to the northwest (extending through cntrl PA to the Ohio Valley as of 25/1900Z) is now expected to slide south into the region during Saturday and possibly stall along/south of the VA/NC border. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure reinforces itself over the area as a mid-level ridge anchors itself over the cntrl Appalachians. Conditions will generally be VFR through the weekend with aftn storms possible Sun/Mon across NE NC and possibly far SE VA as shortwaves ejecting from Tropical Storm Gaston move onshore. Exact placement of these waves is still uncertain, thus only carrying a 20-30% chance for storms on these days. && .MARINE... Sub-sca conditions will continue acrs the waters thru the fcst period (tngt thru Wed). S/SW flow 5 to 15 kt continues into early tngt, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The front drops thru the area late tngt into Sat morning, with winds shifting to the N/NE behind the front. Expect 1-2 waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Onshore flow below 15 kt will then continue for the duration of the weekend, as high pressure slides by to the NNE of the region. Expect winds arnd 10 kt or less for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens or slides out to sea. Weak lo pres areas or possible tropical lows will spin near or off the SE or Mid Atlc during this period, and will cause long period swells to propagate toward the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-4 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD MARINE...TMG

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