Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060948 AAA AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 448 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A STEADY MODERATING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS OVER WRN/NRN PORTIONS...WITH LOW/MID 20S FOR CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH SUNRISE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A 10-15MPH NORTHERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. THERE IS STILL SOME SC LINGERING OVER SE VA/NE NC AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES...BUT THIS PUSH OFFSHORE BY 7 AM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE PRESENCE OF AN ARCTIC INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35F (ABOUT -2 ST DEV) DESPITE EARLY MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN. INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE N. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THESE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR. MORE OF A SPLIT/ZONAL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL/ERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD RESULTING IN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS THE FCST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG POSSIBLY TRIGGERING ISLTD RAIN SHOWERS. MON NGT INTO TUE NGT...SFC HI PRES WILL BE SLIDING ACRS EXTRM NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHILE WEAK LO PRES WILL BE MOVING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENE AND OFF THE SE CST. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 00Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF EACH TRENDED NWD WITH THIS SYSTM...SO POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD TO 30-40% N TO 40-50% S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WX...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SLGT CHC OVR NE NC COUNTIES...FOR WED AFTN THRU THU AS HI PRES BLDS FARTHER S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO UPR 50S MON AND TUE...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...PCPN IS ENDING OVER SE AREAS WITH SCT FLURRIES STILL PSBL NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW HRS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THIS AFTN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. && .MARINE... A COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED LO PRES PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. N WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG THIS MORNG...WITH GALE CONDS CONTINUING THRU 7 AM FOR SRN CSTL WTRS AND THE SOUND...AND SCA ELSEWHERE. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 6-10 FT. A HI SURF ADVSRY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK DUE TO NEARSHORE WAVES AOA 8 FT. ALL MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY TDA AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE AS THE HI BLDS IN. SEAS OVER SRN CSTL WTRS MAY REMAIN AOA 5 FT THRU THIS EVENG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... PRECIPITATION AND MELTING SNOW WILL CAUSE MANY AREA RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME REACHING THREE QUARTERS BANKFULL OR HIGHER. THE JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND WESTHAM IS FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD ON SATURDAY MORNING. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING 3/6: RIC...15 IN 1960 ORF...20 IN 1901 SBY...13 IN 1968 ECG...20 IN 1960 RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR 3/6: RIC...28 IN 1901 ORF...28 IN 1901 SBY...31 IN 1960 ECG...37 IN 1960 RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7: RIC...12 IN 1960 ORF...17 IN 1899 SBY...11 IN 1960 ECG...17 IN 1960 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632- 634. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630- 631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...TMG/AJZ AVIATION...MAS/LSA MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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