Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 210052 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 852 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTH ALONG...THEN OFF...THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SWWD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY NICE EARLY FALL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG AS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. TEMPS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT JUST OFF THE SE COAST IS GENERATING CONSIDERABLE CLDS ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN DELMARVA...SE VA AND NE NC. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED NWWD FROM THE ALBEMARLE SOUND INTO OUR NE NC COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR INLAND. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BE EAST OF DELMARVA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIDED CLOSED TO THE 12Z GFS WITH REGARD TO WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...AS NAM APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIP NWWD. POP/WEATHER FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH CHC POPS PUSHED SOMEWHAT WWD INTO DELMARVA/SE VA AND A GOOD PART OF NE NC. LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MET GUIDANCE SEEM TOO HIGH...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW...MAV GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60. CLOSER TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING. MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED THAT TO 1 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES. HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND 15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/WRS NEAR TERM...WRS SHORT TERM...WRS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS/LSA

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