-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180712
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
312 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WK SFC LO PRES INVOF LWR OH VLY ATTM...W/ CDFNT ALIGNED FM THE SRN
LAKES ENE INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE FNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE TO THE S
TDA...WHILE LO PRES TRACKS EWD AND ENTERS THE MDATLC THIS AFTN.
MDL TSECTIONS SHOWING DECENT AREA OF UVM ENTERING THE RGN AFT
18Z/18. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS W OF THE MTNS THE PAST
24 HRS...AND XPCG DVLPMNT HERE BY THIS AFTN/EVE. PWTR AVGG 2" OVR
THE RGN. WILL MENTION LCLLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN. STARTING OUT
W/ VRB CLDNS/PCLDY CONDS...THEN QUICKLY BECOMING MCLDY. THE CLDNS
AND DVLPG PCPN HOLD TEMPS DOWN TDA. HI TEMPS MNLY FM 80 TO 85F.
MOST AREAS HAVE HAD A DECENT BREAK FM SGFNT RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLDG FM ANY HVY RAINFALL LTR TDA. NO WATCH
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LO PRES TRACKS OFF THE CST TNGT W/ CDFNT SETTLING S INTO THE
CAROLINAS. CHCS FOR HEAVY RAIN DCRS AFT MDNGT...THOUGH KEEPING
POPS MNLY BTWN 30-50%. WNDS BECOME N OVRNGT...THOUGH DRYING WILL
BE LMTD. SFC HI PRES FM THE N WILL BE SLO TO BUILD INTO THE RGN ON
WED. TSECTIONS SHOWING CONTD MOISTURE IN LO LVLS AND W/ NNE
FLO...CLRG LIKELY TO BE SLO/GRADUAL. POPS MNLY 20% N TO 30% ACRS
THE SRN VA/NE NC.

SFC HI PRES AND DRY AIR EXPAND TO THE SSE WED NGT THROUGH THU
RESULTING IN CLRG AND COOLER CONDS. MDLS (ESP THE GFS) DO SUGGEST
PTNTL FOR DIURNAL CNVTN THU OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MNLY W OF THE
FA.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M70S AT
THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U50S TO M60S.
HI TEMPS THU FM ARND 80F AT THE CST TO THE M80S INLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS MORNG...DUE TO SSW
FLO CAUSING SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS. THAT LO PRES AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE
REGION...ESPLY FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY WED MORNG. A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS
OR STRONGER STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER
WED THRU THU...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA THEN OFF THE NRN MID
ATLC CST.

&&

.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ