Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230743 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 343 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1022MB SFC BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST, WITH ONLY A WEAK, WAVY INVERTED TROUGH LINGERING ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING NE ALONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NC, WITH KAKQ RADAR SHOWING SOME LGT-MOD SHRAS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. HV RETAINED A LIGHT CHC POP EARLY THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE, WITH THE TROUGH WASHING OUT TODAY, BERMUDA HIGH WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE TODAY...WITH DEEP LAYERED RETURN FLOW ADVECTING VERY WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE RGN. PW VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.75-2" RANGE (HIGHEST SE) TODAY, WHICH IN TANDEM WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S/LOW 90S SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST (10-15 KT) AND POOR FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, DISORGANIZED PULSE CONVECTION IS THE FAVORED STORM MODE FOR THE DAY, WITH A DEVELOPING (PRE-FRONTAL) LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES SE SERVING AS SUBTLE FOCI FOR ISO TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. OTHERWISE, A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED W/ HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND, 85-90 ALONG THE COAST. STRONG LOW LVL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW DEWPTS TO FALL OFF A FEW DEGS THIS AFTN, SO WHILE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F ARE EXPECTED, DROP IN TD`S SHOULD KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. WEAK SHEAR/FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LULL IN POPS AFTER SUNSET THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST (THIS MORNING) TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, BECOMING OVERCAST LATE ACROSS THE N/NW (PARTLY CLOUDY SE). AS FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THEA AREA LATE TONIGHT, WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHRAS/ISO T DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST...POTENTIALLY REACHING NORTHERN CWA BY DAY BREAK. THEREFORE WENT WITH A 30-40% POP ACROSS THE NORTH...20% FARTHER SOUTH. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST AC RS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTN. UNFORTUNATELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA (NAMELY CENTRAL VA/RICHMOND METRO) WHERE PCPN DEFICITS PAST MONTH OR SO AVG A COUPLE/FEW INCHES, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT BEST FORCING COINCIDENT WITH 60-70KT RRQ OF UPPER JET ARRIVING BY THU AFTN FROM CENTRAL NC TOWARDS THE TIDEWATER AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BEST POP/HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE SE CWA THU AFTN/EVENING, GRADUALLY SPREADING SE AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NE NC THU NGT/EARLY FRI. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS FAR SE CWA LT THU AND MUCH OF FRI. OTHERWISE, FOR BULK OF FA...GRADUAL DRYING FM THE NW TO SE IS INDICATED AS SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. DROP POPS OFF FOR MOST AREAS THU NGT, BUT DID MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACRS COASTAL NE NC THROUGH FRI AFTN. OTHERWISE CLEARING AND BECOMING A BIT DRIER LATE THU THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE M/U80S N...U80S TO L90S S THU. HIGHS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...L/M80S AT THE CST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT NEAR THE COASTAL VA/NC BORDER WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST 23/0800Z. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WARM FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VARIABLE VISIBILITIES OF 1-5SM AND CIGS FLUCTUATING BTWN 100-1000 FT AGL. AT THIS TIME...KECG AND KSBY SHOULD BE MOST ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM POSSIBLE AND CIGS BELOW 500 FT AGL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 23/1400Z. OTHERWISE...EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTN TODAY AND ALL TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IMPACTED. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS EVENING...BRINGING A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SHUNT PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE. CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MARINE... A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE NC COAST WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND LASTS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS AOB 10 KT CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT....THEN REMAIN SW 10 TO 15 KT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N-NE AOB 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AGAIN AOB 15 KT BY THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND PROBABLY NOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND EITHER. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS DEPICTION FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-3 FT BUILDING TO ~4 FT WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS WINDS BECOME N-NE FRIDAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...JDM

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