Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 071314 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 814 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH ~1024 MB SLOWLY LIFTING NE OFF THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS NNE FROM DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST. LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND FAR SRN VA REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING...BUT AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING LIGHT PRECIP ADVANCE INTO INTERIOR NE NC FIRST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE SE INTO FAR E VA/NE NC LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR- MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO 21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z. MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER 21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX- RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S. SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD. && .MARINE... THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.