Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 052329 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 729 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... UPDATE... RAINFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHICH SUPPORTED ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA (SCNTRL VA AND NE NC) AND THEN CONTINUED THIS TREND AS MAIN SWATH OF PRECIP PIVOTS N-NE WITH ROTATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. ADJUSTED 6HR QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL TO REFLECT THE POP CHANGES...WITH TOTALS AVERAGING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES IN AREAS OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING DUE TO A FULLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT PRESENT WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ANTICIPATED. VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-5 MILES IN AREAS OF FOG...HOWEVER WENT WITH THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 2 MILES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO 4 MILES DURING FRI MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMP/DEWPOINT/RH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATE THIS AFTN...UPR AIR LO PRES WAS DROPPING INTO WRN NC...WITH SFC LO PRES JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. LATEST RADAR SHOWED AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF SCNTRL AND INTERIOR SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. HEAVIER SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA HAVE PRODUCED .50 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR. THE UPR LO WILL MOVE ACROSS NC THRU EARLY TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NE TO THE SE VA CST BY 12Z FRI. WHILE...THE SFC LO WILL LIFT NNE OFF THE NC AND VA CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS MOVNG ENE AND OVR THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/ERN VA...NE NC AND THE LWR MD ERN SHORE LATE THIS EVENG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG. SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC INTO FRI MORNG. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING WITH SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS OR FLOOD ADVISORIES THIS EVENG INTO FRI MORNG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE UPR LO WILL MOVE NWD ALONG THE DELMARVA CST AND INTO SRN NEW JERSEY DURING FRI...BEFORE LIFTING NNW INTO ERN PA BY 12Z SAT. CLOUDY INTO EARLY FRI NGT WITH 60-80% POPS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES THRU EARLY FRI AFTN ALNG AND E OF INTERSTATE 95. POPS AND RAIN AMTS/INTENSITY WILL THEN DECREASE/DIMINISH LATE FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT FM S TO N...AS THE LO LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND INTO ESE PA. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS FRI NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S. THE LO AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPR TROF WILL MOVE NE AND E AND OFF THE CST SAT AFTN. MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS WILL LINGER OVR THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY OR PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE NW SAT NGT...AND DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE DEEP LO LVL MOISTURE WITH IT...SO JUST HAVE SMALL CHC (30%) OR SLGT CHC (20%) POPS FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS SAT NGT IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S MOST AREAS MON AS STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS OFF THE ERN SEABOARD ALLOWING SLY FLOW T0 DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLC. DRY WX EXPECTED WITH LO PRES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE FOR SOME OVERRUNNING PCPN MON NGT/TUE WELL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LO PRES SYSTM...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE COMING WED (30-40% POPS) AS THE LO APPROACHES FM THE W. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S UNDER CONTINUED SLY FLOW...WITH MORNG LOWS IN THE 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THU (30% POPS) WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE/WED. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS REDUCING VSBYS TO BTWN 3-5 SM AT TIMES. SBY MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST NEXT 4-8 HOURS AS WELL DUE TO UPR LVL LOW MOVG ACROSS THE AREA. ISLTD TSTMS PSBL WITH THE UPR LVL LOW BUT CHC TO LOW ATTM TO TIME INTO ANY ONE TAF SITE. OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SCT SHRAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT COMES ON SATURDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH HEADLINES GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI. CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD 15-25 KT OVER THE BAY AND OCEAN. CONDS ARE MORE MARGINAL IN THE RIVERS BUT HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEARSHORE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FRI FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VA/NC COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND BECOME CENTERED ALONG/JUST OFF THE DELMARVA. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRI MORNING WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH WILL DROP OFF TO 10 KT OR LESS. BY AFTN...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OVER THE BAY AND WESTERLY OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS...AND THEY WILL DIMINISH OVER NRN COASTAL AREAS CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW. SEAS WILL BE SLOWEST TO SUBSIDE ACROSS NRN AREAS AND THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRI EVENING THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB- SCA CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND...LIGHT WINDS SAT...THOUGH SEAS LIKELY STAY ELEVATED AROUND 4 FT. WINDS TURN SSW AND AVG 15 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE NW ON SUNDAY. STILL NOT MUCH COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SO GENLY DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS TO DEVELOP OR IF THEY DO WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED ACROSS THE BAY W/ GUSTS TO 20 KT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... STRONG NE FLOW TODAY...AND HIGHER SEAS THAN ANTICIPATED HAS LED TO TIDAL DEPARTURES THAT NOW AVG 1.5 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN LOCATIONS FROM WACHAPREAGUE ON SOUTH (DEPARTURES AVG 1.0 TO 1.5 FT ELSEWHERE). RAISED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MODERATE FLOODING FROM NORTHAMPTON CO VA TO VA BEACH AND NC OUTER BANKS FOR THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY/RIVERS AND OCEAN. THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING/THROUGH FRI MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING LIKELY AGAIN FRI EVENING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ024- 025. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023. NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ084>086- 089-090-093-095>097-522>525. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ098- 100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ099. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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