Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282045 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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1045MB SFC HI PRES RMNS SITUATED OVR THE FA THIS AFTN PROVIDING VERY DRY/COLD AIR THIS AFTN. VRB MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING W-E ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...WILL CONT THROUGH THE EVE HRS. THE SFC HI PRES WILL HANG ON NR THE CST THROUGH THE NGT AS ZONAL FLO ALOFT QUICKLY RESULTS IN MOISTURE INCRSG FM THE OH/TN VLY. ALSO...THERE IS AN AREA OF RA ASSOCIATED W/ WEAK TROUGH NR THE NRN FL/GA/SC CST RIGHT NOW...AND SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NNW THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LT TNGT. TEMPS TO DROP OFF THIS EVE...THEN LEVEL OFF ARND MDNGT (LOWS FM THE UPR TEENS/LWR 20S N...TO THE L/M20S S). READINGS XPCD TO RISE A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F LT AS CLDNS INCREASES/CIGS GRADUALLY LWR. SOME LGT PCPN WILL TRY TO SPREAD INTO FAR W AND SW PORTIONS OF FA (PIEDMONT W OF I 95) AFT 08-10Z/01. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PTNTL MIXED P-TYPE (SN-IP TO START...THEN IP-FZRA)...W/ TEMPS IN THE M/U20S. HAVE RAISED A WINTER WX ADVSRY FOR FAR WRN PORTIONS OF FA...BEGINNING AT 09Z/01.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SFC LO PRES EJECTS NE FROM OH VLY TO WRN NEW ENG SUN W/ ASSCTD WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA. SFC HI PRES AND LO LVL COLD AIR WILL BE SLO TO RETREAT DURING THE DAY...SETTING UP PTNTL WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LINGERING INTO THE AFTN (ESP AWAY FM THE CST). MDL THERMAL PROFILES AND CLIMO SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST PROB FOR ICE ACCUMS WILL BE W AND NW OF RIC...THOUGH WILL COVER FOR PSBL LGT MIXED P-TYPE BEFORE ANY RA TO ABT SBY-AKQ-EMV LINE. HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE I 95 CORRIDOR TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE DUE TO LO CONFIDENCE. E OF THAT LINE...XPCG MNLY RA AS TEMPS RISE SUFFICIENTLY ABV FREEZING...REACHING THE L/M40S RIGHT AT THE CST...UPR 30S NOT THAT FAR INLAND. TO THE W...WILL HANG ONTO TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY UNTIL 21Z/01-00Z/02 FOR MNLY ICE ACCUMS UP TO TENTH OF AN INCH. HI TEMPS FAR WNW STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE L30S IN THE AFTN...L/M30S XPCD ACRS CNTRL TIER FM AVC/EMV TO INTERIOR LWR MD ERN SHORE. PCPN TAPERING OFF WELL INLAND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE SUN NGT...WHILE WILL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS CNTRL AND E. TEMPS HOLD NRLY STEADY FM THE 30S TO L40S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA MON MRNG...TO BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND DRYING WNW WNDS. HAVE HUNG ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS NR THE CST MON MRNG HWVR. HI TEMPS FM THE M40S ON THE ERN SHORE AREAS ...U40S-M50S ELSW. SFC HI PRES SETTLES OVR THE FA MON NGT...THOUGH CLDNS WILL BE QUICKLY RETURNING AS FLO ALOFT BECOMES WSW. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN (PRIMARILY RA...THOUGH BRIEF MIX PSBL ACRS FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA TUE MRNG) XPCD ON TUE. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE L20S N TO U20S S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M40S N AND W TO THE U40S/ARND 50F SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ZONAL...SO ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S N...TO LOW 30S S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST FORCING FOR PCPN WILL TRACK N OF THE REGION...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS...WITH A LESSER CHC TO THE S. TUESDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A RESIDUAL CAD-WEDGE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW...TO NEAR 50 SE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOULD LOWS ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. 27/00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HENCE HAS MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR -RA. THE 27/12Z CMC IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COASTS...WHICH REFLECTS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH ANAFRONTAL PCPN IN ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN ARCTIC IN ORIGIN. THE QUESTION IN WHETHER OR NOT THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN QUICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CHANGEOVER TO -SN (PRIMARILY N/NW PORTIONS). THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION OF -SN WILL BE INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN THRU THE EVENING. COLD HIGH PRES CENTERED NORTH OF THE CWA WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SE STATES WILL MOVE NORTH AND BRING PRECIP WITH IT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF -FZRAPL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING PERIOD ESPECIALLY W OF I95. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX MAY ALSO AFFECT PHF AND SBY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO MOSTLY ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPS WARM. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDS BY MID MORNING FOR RIC...THEN MOVE EAST AS THE PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DRY WX RETURNS BY MONDAY. && .MARINE... HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO EXPIRE AS OF 6 AM...WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FT. MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND ATTM WITH N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT. WILL KEEP SCA GOING SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT AND THE SOUND THRU 10 AM. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THUS WILL KEEP SCA GOING TIL 4 PM SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO BECOME SSW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.3 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.6 F (-9.9 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD TIE THE 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 27TH: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SUNDAY MORNING): 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ __________________________________________ RIC11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (TODAY): 2/28 _______ RIC 28/1934 ORF 30/1934 SBY 29/1934 ECG 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-049-060>064-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ065>068. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...JEF MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...

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