Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271535 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF 7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S- L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW. OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7 FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND... RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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