Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300744 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 344 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 1KFT ATTM AS LO LVL FLO RMNS FM THE ENE. FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED A BIT FARTHER S SO FAR OVRNGT ACRS NC. WEDGE RMNS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE FA. MDL LI FCSTS SUGGEST WEDGE HANGS ON THROUGHOUT TDA ACRS ALL OF THE FA W/ LITTLE CHC FOR ANY CLEARING/SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. WILL HAVE AREAS OF DZ/PATCHY FG UNTIL ABT MID MRNG...THEN CHCS FOR RA SLOLY INCRS FM W-E THROUGH LT AFTN. HI TEMPS FM THE M-U50S AT THE BEACHES TO MNLY 60-65F ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... POPS BECOMING LIKELY OR HIGHER OVR MUCH OF THE FA TNGT...LASTING INTO SUN MRNG AS MID LVL WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LO LVL WEDGE RMNS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MRNG PER LI FCST. GRADUAL EROSION OF THE WEDGE XPCD ON SUNDAY...W/ MARGINAL INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT TSTMS...MNLY IN SRN/SE VA-NE NC. XPCG CONTD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS ON SUN...THOUGH BECOMING WARMER AS LO LVL FLO TURNS MORE SSWLY. VRB CLDS/PARTLY CLOUDY SUN EVE...THEN STRATUS LIKELY TO REFORM SUN NGT AND CONT EARLY MON MRNG. SOME DRYING XPCD ON MON AS DEEP LYRD WSW FLO PREVAILS. A TROUGH OF LO PRES CROSSING THE AREA MAY COMBINE W/ HEATING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSTMS MON AFTN/EVE (ESP SE VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE L-M50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M-U60S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M-U70S INLAND. LO TEMPS SUN NGT MNLY IN THE L-M60S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE M-U70S N AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L80S ACRS SRN VA-NE NC (U60S-L70S AT THE BEACHES). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR MON NGT/TUE...A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS JUST S OF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING THRU THE OH VALLEY. POPS ARE IN THE CHC RANGE (30-50%). LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGE THRU THE 50S WITH HI TEMPS TUE IN THE MID/UPR 60S. SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED (CHC POPS) AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRNT. RETAINED SOME POPS INTO THU AS WELL WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB A BIT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 70S BY THU. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING IN LIGHT NE FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO LIFR BY 08-10Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/VFR CIGS BY LATE AFTN. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR RA AND TSTMS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS SUNDAY AFTN. && .MARINE... NE FLOW 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-6 FT)...AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO BUILD FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST WNAWAVE/NWPS GUIDANCE SHOW SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINING ELEVATED MUCH OF TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED SCA (MAINLY FOR SEAS) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU 5 PM. SUB-SCA NE FLOW BECOMES E-SE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH ON SUN AS SFC LOW PRES MOVES THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA MON MORNING...WHICH DROPS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY. OVERALL...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON MORN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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