Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010831 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 331 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will make its way off the coast this morning. High pressure slowly builds into the area through Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sfc cold front will exit the coast this morning taking with it the last of the remaining shower activity. Winds along the east of the front will continue from the S at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Behind the front, winds will lessen while veering to the WNW this morning. Clouds will also be on the decrease from west to east behind the front this morning. Expect a mostly sunny sky all areas by 10 am or so. Only modest CAA behind the front will result in lower max temps today but still running 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs from near 50 NW to the mid/upr 60s SE. Mainly clear and seasonably cool tonight. Lows in the 30s to around 40 coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry weather expected Fri thru Sat...as WNW flow dominates the area as CAA improves. Sfc high pressure will gradually build toward the region fm the WNW. Mainly clear thru the period. Near normal/below normal highs expected for Fri and Sat. Highs on Fri in the lower to mid 50s, and highs on Sat in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri ngt mainly in the 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cool high pressure is expected to be centered over the Mid- Atlantic region Saturday night, before gradually sliding offshore later Sunday. A split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn stream wave diving into the Great Lakes. This will result in dry conditions Saturday night, with a mostly clear sky Saturday evening, followed by increasing clouds later Saturday night, and then mostly cloudy by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s to around 50. The Great Lakes system passes to the north Sunday night as the Gulf system passes to the south. 30/12z GFS/CMC each split the moisture north and south of the region, with the 30/12z ECMWF and GEFS mean depicting some light rain passing through the region. A 20-30% PoP is forecast for this time period, followed by drier conditions Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s, after morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure slides offshore Monday night as low pressure approaches from the west. This system crosses the area Tuesday, with high pressure returning Wednesday, ahead of yet another low pressure system approaching from the west. Highs Tuesday should again be in the low/mid 50s, and moderating to the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. Morning lows should be in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected thru 06z TAF period despite widely sct -SHRA exiting the coast thru 11Z. A cold front moves offshore this morning followed by the return of high pressure today/tonight. Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west through Friday and settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry conditions can be expected. There will be a chance for rain Sunday night and Monday as a weak low pressure moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast States.
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&& .MARINE...
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Latest obs reflect S-SW flow across the waters early this morning, with wind speeds averaging 15-20kt with gusts to 25-30 kt in the lower Bay and Lower James. Surface Low pressure is analyzed over Western Quebec, with associated sfc cold front now extends from the interior northeast to just east of the central/southern Appalachians. Expect the front will cross the waters through sunrise this morning, with sfc winds gradually becoming W-NW and diminishing below SCA. Seas build to 4-6ft s to 5-7ft n, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay. SCA flags will come down as expected over northern waters, but will be extended to around sunrise for Lower Bay and Lower James. W-NW winds at 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean continues behind the front Thursday into Friday. A modest CAA surge arrives Friday night into Saturday and this could produce low-end SCA conditions for the nrn portion of the marine area late Friday night. Winds diminish over the weekend, as Canadian sfc high pressure builds into the area from the west through the period. Potential for winds to increase once again on Monday, as low pressure develops along the se coast as high pressure rebuilds to the north.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ630>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MAM

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