Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 291022
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
622 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
High pressure will weaken over the local area today. A weak
frontal boundary will settle into the region from the north by
tonight...then dissipate Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak tropical
depression will linger off the Carolina coast through Tuesday,
before pushing farther out to sea on Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Not nearly as much fog as Sun morning...thus have adjusted
forecast. Also...added isolated shras this morning for coastal SE
Conditions similar to 24 hours ago...w/ vrb clouds (and cigs)
mainly found across srn/SE VA and NE NC. As temps continue to fall
to around the dewpt...patchy/areas of fog likely to develop once
again inland and last until about 13-14Z/29. After
that...expecting vrb clouds-mostly cloudy conditions over far
srn/SE VA and NE NC...mostly sunny elsewhere today. A very weak
frontal boundary approaching the PA-MD line early this
morning...drifts S and closer to the northern portion of the FA
this afternoon. Would not rule out an isolated shra/tstm w/ that
boundary. Otherwise...TD #8 progged to drift W but still remain
too far off the NC/SC coast to have any significant impacts on the
sensible wx. High res models suggest once again a chance for
isolated/widely scattered showers in SE VA and NE NC (POPS
15-30%). Highs will avg 85 to 90F inland (and across interior
portions of the Lower MD Eastern Shore) to the l-m80s near the
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Very little change to conditions expected tonight/Tue...as a weak
front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA). Meanwhile...TD
#8 lingers off the coastal Carolinas before slowly curving NE and
farther out to sea late Tue through Wed. Highs will average in
the u80s-l90s (l-m80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the
u60s-l70s (another round of patchy/areas of fog possible late
tonight). Have maintained PoPs 15-30% for mainly aftn/eve
shras/tstms over far SE VA-NE NC zones.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At this time, going closer to the 12z ECMWF for the extended
period. The combination of some tropical moisture along the mid
atlc and se cst, and the approach and passage of a cold front,
will produce slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Thu. Dry wx and a
more comfortable airmass will filter into the region for Thu ngt
into Sun, as high pressure blds in fm the N and slides offshore on
Sun. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and mainly in the lower to
mid 80s Fri, Sat, and Sun. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wed
ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, in the upper 50s to mid 60s
Fri ngt, and in the 60s Sat ngt.
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region attm resulting in mainly VFR
conditions...though periods of MVFR cigs found...in far SE VA-
coastal NE NC. Locally dense fog and low clouds (LIFR/IFR) once
again likely...mainly inland through 12-13Z/29. Conditions
improve after 13Z Monday with mainly VFR conditions and NE winds
averaging aob 10 kt.
Mainly dry weather is expected to continue through Wed other than
isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each
afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF
and KECG). TD #8 is progged to develop into a Tropical Storm and
lift off the NC Outer Banks Wed...posing little threat to the
A sca has been issued for southern coastal waters with seas near 5
ft this morng and likely to continue through at least Tue with a
prolonged easterly fetch/swell. Winds are expected to stay sub-sca
through the period over all waters. Tropical depression eight is
expected to become a tropical storm but pass off the NC Outer Banks
late Tue. Seas approaching 5 ft out 20 nm are possible over northern
coastal waters Tue, but with this being 3rd period and still some
uncertainty will limit the sca to just the southern coastal waters
attm. Onshore flow on avg continues thereafter through mid week.
Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the
area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on
forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and
Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good
chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only
received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it
would rank as the 3rd driest on record).
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.