Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 291022 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 622 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will weaken over the local area today. A weak frontal boundary will settle into the region from the north by tonight...then dissipate Tuesday. Meanwhile, a weak tropical depression will linger off the Carolina coast through Tuesday, before pushing farther out to sea on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Not nearly as much fog as Sun morning...thus have adjusted forecast. Also...added isolated shras this morning for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Previous discussion: Conditions similar to 24 hours ago...w/ vrb clouds (and cigs) mainly found across srn/SE VA and NE NC. As temps continue to fall to around the dewpt...patchy/areas of fog likely to develop once again inland and last until about 13-14Z/29. After that...expecting vrb clouds-mostly cloudy conditions over far srn/SE VA and NE NC...mostly sunny elsewhere today. A very weak frontal boundary approaching the PA-MD line early this morning...drifts S and closer to the northern portion of the FA this afternoon. Would not rule out an isolated shra/tstm w/ that boundary. Otherwise...TD #8 progged to drift W but still remain too far off the NC/SC coast to have any significant impacts on the sensible wx. High res models suggest once again a chance for isolated/widely scattered showers in SE VA and NE NC (POPS 15-30%). Highs will avg 85 to 90F inland (and across interior portions of the Lower MD Eastern Shore) to the l-m80s near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Very little change to conditions expected tonight/Tue...as a weak front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA). Meanwhile...TD #8 lingers off the coastal Carolinas before slowly curving NE and farther out to sea late Tue through Wed. Highs will average in the u80s-l90s (l-m80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s-l70s (another round of patchy/areas of fog possible late tonight). Have maintained PoPs 15-30% for mainly aftn/eve shras/tstms over far SE VA-NE NC zones. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At this time, going closer to the 12z ECMWF for the extended period. The combination of some tropical moisture along the mid atlc and se cst, and the approach and passage of a cold front, will produce slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Thu. Dry wx and a more comfortable airmass will filter into the region for Thu ngt into Sun, as high pressure blds in fm the N and slides offshore on Sun. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and mainly in the lower to mid 80s Fri, Sat, and Sun. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri ngt, and in the 60s Sat ngt. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure remains over the region attm resulting in mainly VFR conditions...though periods of MVFR cigs found...in far SE VA- coastal NE NC. Locally dense fog and low clouds (LIFR/IFR) once again likely...mainly inland through 12-13Z/29. Conditions improve after 13Z Monday with mainly VFR conditions and NE winds averaging aob 10 kt. Mainly dry weather is expected to continue through Wed other than isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG). TD #8 is progged to develop into a Tropical Storm and lift off the NC Outer Banks Wed...posing little threat to the local area. && .MARINE... A sca has been issued for southern coastal waters with seas near 5 ft this morng and likely to continue through at least Tue with a prolonged easterly fetch/swell. Winds are expected to stay sub-sca through the period over all waters. Tropical depression eight is expected to become a tropical storm but pass off the NC Outer Banks late Tue. Seas approaching 5 ft out 20 nm are possible over northern coastal waters Tue, but with this being 3rd period and still some uncertainty will limit the sca to just the southern coastal waters attm. Onshore flow on avg continues thereafter through mid week. && .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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