Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011955 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 355 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US RIDGING SOUTH. THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ FORECAST AREA. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN. OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH END OF THE WK. && .MARINE... NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP. FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI. SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...ALB/MPR MARINE...MPR

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