Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 111155 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through tonight, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation. A more prominent low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night, pushing a strong cold front through the local area. Expect markedly colder temperatures across the region for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest surface analysis reveals a broad area of high pressure (~1030 mb) centered from the western Gulf coast across the deep south. To the north, Low pressure continues to slide across the Adirondack Mtns, with the associated surface front extending back into the Ohio Valley. To the northwest, a shortwave diving south from southern Saskatchewan across the Dakotas, dragging a strong cold south across the upper midwest/Western Great Lakes today and through the Ohio Valley tonight. Ahead of the front, lingering mid to high clouds, associated with another vort lobe pivoting across the Delmarva at sunrise, exiting with the departing upper trough. Sky again turns mainly sunny behind this feature today. Temperatures do moderate slightly, with milder highs today into the mid-upper 40s most areas to lower 50s SE coast. After a clear start, sky will become partly to mostly cloudy late tonight ahead of the approaching front to the west. Veering low-level flow to the S-SW should bring a slightly milder night with early morning lows in the low to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Day begins with potent upper shortwave pinwheeling across the interior northeast, with the strong cold front pushing across the area from late morning through early evening Tuesday. Should be enough pre-frontal SW flow Tue to bring one last relatively mild day Tuesday, with highs into the mid- upper 50s SE to the upper 40s NW. Turning blustery and dry late in the day from NW to SE. Wind gusts to 20 to 30 mph Tuesday afternoon...gusting to 30 to 40 mph Tuesday night. Temperatures quickly tumble into the 20s/30s early Tuesday night, with early morning lows in the teens NW to 20s elsewhere Wednesday morning under a clearing sky. Brisk NW winds will quickly knock wind chills down into the 10-20 F range Wed morning. Even with mainly sunny skies Wed, highs will struggle to get above the lower 30s N and mid 30s S...with wind chills remaining in the 20s or colder. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A progressive WNW flow pattern is expected for the latter half of this week through next weekend, featuring a series of nrn stream (moisture-starved) clipper systems. The first wave pushes through during the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. The 10/12z ECMWF is about 12hrs quicker than the GFS, but regardless PoPs are less than 15% with limited moisture and downslope flow. Another wave quickly follows Friday. The GFS is more nrn stream dominated while the ECMWF pushes a srn stream wave off the Southeast coast. Again, there is little support for pcpn locally, so forecast PoPs are less than 15%. Shortwave ridging prevails Saturday with another quick moving trough pushing through the region Sunday. High temperatures Thursday- Saturday will generally be in the 40s to around 50F SE, then low/mid 50s by Sunday as the aforementioned trough will provide mixing with limited CAA. Low temperatures will primarily be in the 20s for much of the area to low 30s SE later this week, and then rise to the upper 20s/mid 30s (upper 30s/around 40F far SE) by the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the 12z TAF period and beyond. SCT/BKN mid to high level clouds will clear out over the next few hours, with little more than some sct aftn high clouds. Winds will be 10 kt or less from the SW-W through tonight. Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the week ahead, though winds are expected to become strong and gusty later Tue/Tue night into Wed with the passage of a strong cold front. Gusts of 20-30kt through this period.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will slide over the area and to the coast during today. Sub-SCA conditions expected everywhere fm this morning into Tue morning, as high pressure slides acrs the area and to the coast while a cold front starts to approach fm the west. That cold front will push thru the waters Tue aftn into early Tue evening, with strong CAA expected behind the front on NW or W winds thru Wed aftn or Wed evening. SCA conditions expected over much of the marine area fm Tue thru Wed aftn/evening. Low- end gales will be possible Tue night and Wed, esply over the coastal wtrs. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAM MARINE...TMG

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