Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271059 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 659 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary over the area lifts back to the north this morning. A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Weak sfc boundary remains over the FA...roughly from about FVX- MFV. N of the boundary...FG remains w/ VSBYs mainly 1-3SM...though VSBYs 1/4-1/2SM found over much of the lower MD ern shore (and the adjacent waters). Will re-issue SPS for locally dense FG early this morning on the lower MD ern shore. The boundary will be lifting N through the morning hours...therefore expect slow/gradual improvement in the FG/VSBYs (from S-N). Initial area of low pres lifts into/through New England today...leaving FA w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains invof SE CONUS coast. Mainly mostly cloudy this morning...w/ ISOLD SHRAs...mainly confined to NW of a AVC- RIC-SBY line...becoming partly sunny by aftn. All zones will be back in the warm sector...even eventually on the eastern shore. Aside from locally cooler readings at the immediate coast... most areas will rise into the m-u70s. Not much forcing for widespread precip (after early-mid morning), but will carry 20% PoPs for aftn showers (tstms well inland). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging begins to break down tonight...as the front approaches from the W and will carry chc PoPs west of I-95 after midnight/20% or less E. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front passes arrives late in the day. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to near 80F. There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs most areas. There will be some potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional increases and sfc dew pts approach 60F...but overall not looking like widespread severe wx. Drying late Tue night with lows mainly 50-55 F...w/ partly/mostly sunny conditions Wed. Somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65F near the coast and in the u60s-l70s well inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat night. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Conditions have become VFR invof SBY past couple of hours. Narrow area of -SHRAS moving E...approaching I 95 (and RIC) attm...and have added TEMPO -SHRA to RIC until about 14Z/27. Expecting mainly VFR conditions for midday/afternoon hours w/ low prob for SHRAS. Unsettled wx conditions will persist across the region into Tue night. SHRAS becoming increasingly likely during Tue...into Tue night. Periods of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of precipitation. Dry/VFR Wed as winds shift to the N.
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&& .MARINE... Low visibility in fog (<1 NM) continues to plague the northern coastal waters and the upper Bay early this morning. Based on trends in the latest obs will continue the Dense Fog Advisory north of Windmill Pt thru 7 am and also for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island. A frontal boundary remains draped across the Delmarva early this morning with reduced visibility in light onshore E/NE flow. South of the boundary winds are S at 10 kt or less. The frontal boundary will eventually get pulled back north of the Delmarva later this morning with improving visibility across the northern waters...and winds becoming S 5 to 15 kt all areas for the rest of today as sfc high pressure lingers off the SE coast. Winds S to SW 10 to 15 kt continues tonight and Tue morning. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft. Low pressure and its associated cold front will across the local area late Tue into early Wed morning. Winds S/SW 10-15 kt Tue aftn will become W/NW 10-15 kt Tue night then N-NE 10-15 kt on Wed. Do not expect SCA conditions to be met thru Wed. High pressure will build in from the N for Wed night and Thu with NE winds 15 kt or less, becoming E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-3 ft thru the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM

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