Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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560 FXUS61 KAKQ 241750 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1250 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will slowly lift north through the local area this morning as another front slowly drops into northern portions of the area late in the day. High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast tonight and Sunday. A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic Sunday night and settles across North Carolina Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak boundary remains over the area this morning. Fog has gradually lifted to stratus and has largely eroded from the Piedmont to SE VA/NE NC, but has been most persistent over the Ern Shore where areas of fog still continue as of 10 am. Temperatures range from the 50s N to the low/mid 60s S and SE. An area of showers over the central Appalachians associated with an upper wave are progged to clip the nrn tier of the area this aftn/evening per latest RAP/HRRR trends. PoPs range from near 30% from RIC-WAL and 60% across the far nrn tier of the area. The high temperature forecast will again be tricky today due to the widespread low cigs expected early in the day and uncertainty over how far north the clearing makes it. For now will forecast highs near 60 over the Lwr MD Eastern Shore to the mid/upr 70s southern half of the fa. Remaining mild with lows in the 50s to around 60. Best chances for light rain again over northern areas. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage. Very warm Sunday with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, with low/mid 70s over the Ern Shore, and locally mid/upper 60s for the MD Beaches. See the climate section for record highs. The best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so PoPs at this time are only 30-50% ahead of and along the front. The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles over NC Monday. A secondary low pressure tracks along the front along with some mid-level energy and this could bring a period of light rain, mainly across the srn VA and NE NC. Cooler behind the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday night in the 50s and highs Monday in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but these values could fall during the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front pushes offshore with some lingering shwrs along the se coast Mon eve. Pt cldy/cooler. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. High pressure over the area Tue shifts offshore Tue nite and Wed. Dry thru 18Z Wed with isltd shwrs psbl across the Piedmont Wed aftrn as moisture returns from the SW. Highs Tue mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows Tue nite 40-45. Highs Wed upr 50s-mid 60s. Low pressure moves NE into the Gt Lakes region mid week with the advancing warm front lifting north across the region Wed nite and trailing cold front Thurs. Models show a decent moisture feed into the systm from the sw so will carry likely pops (shwrs) for both periods. Kept thunder out of forecast as that will depend on the actual timing of the cold frontal passage. Lows Wed nite mid 40s-lwr 50s. Highs Thu upr 50s- upr60s. Chc pops Thu nite as upr level systm is slow to track across the nrn Mid Atlantic region. Lows in the 40s. Cyclonic flow Fri will usher in a drier/cooler airmass but shwrs linger across the ern shore as the upr level systm slowly pulls offshore. Highs in the 50s to near 60 se. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread LIFR to start off the 12Z TAF period with a warm front still situated over the fa. Have seen some improvement in vsbys, but cigs are expected to stay LIFR/IFR through mid/late morning, and even into the aftn near SBY. Generally light SW winds become southwest 10-15 kt later this morning. Best chance for sub-VFR aviation conditions tonight will be at SBY. Outlook: A cold front crosses the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing the potential for ceiling and visibility restrictions along with periods of light rain. High pressure settles over the area Tuesday and slides offshore Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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As of early afternoon, will be maintaining marine fog advisory north of Parramore Island on the Atlantic side and north of Windmill Pt on the Ches Bay thru 7 pm. Latest obs show fog/low stratus remaining stubborn in these locations with light S/SE winds. Elsewhere, fog has lifted. Otherwise, offshore high and SSW winds dominate today into tonight, though with another backdoor cold front sagging south into the northern waters this aftn into tonight (winds will shift to the E in these areas). Front lifts back N overnight/Sun morning with a breezy SW flow on Sunday. Expect the warm airmass over cold water inversion to keep mixing limited, but still may see some gusts to around 20 kt during the day over much of the area. Marginal SCA headlines may be issued as needed. The next cold front crosses the waters Sun night with a wind shift back to the N-NE for Mon. No real CAA surges noted behind the front, so kept winds/seas below SCA levels, but will probably have a few hrs worth of elevated winds early Monday behind the front, and again Mon night/early Tue as sfc high pressure builds into the area from the WNW.
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&& .CLIMATE... Very warm temperatures will return today and especially Sunday, Record highs are listed for today/Sat 2/24. For Sun 2/25, both record highs and record high mins are listed: * Record Highs........Record Highs/Rec High Mins * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985).....83 (1930)...54 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012).....81 (2017)...59 (1930) * SBY: 77 (2012).....80 (1930)...52 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985).....78 (2017)...54 (1985) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...AJB/MPR AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...JDM/LKB CLIMATE...AKQ

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