Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190321 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1121 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will arrive late tonight or early Saturday morning and exit the region by Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in for Saturday night through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Convection continues to shift off the coast...at least the nrn portion. The srn portion lags behind...and will be tracking through mainly SE VA well into the overnight hours. Drying/lowering of dew points will be very slow as main cold front is sluggish to push across the area from the WNW. Keeping highest PoPs across the ern parts of the FA oavernight. Lows from the l70s NW to m-u70s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The models are still struggling on how much push is there to get the front through the region on Saturday. With a strong shortwave trough digging through the Ohio Valley, it makes sense that the front will temporarily stall waiting for the shortwave trough to move past. This should allow the front to finally get south of the area and off the coast by Saturday evening. So have kept a low chance for showers and afternoon storms over NE Nc and the Tidewater area on Saturday. High pressure builds into the area on Saturday night into Sunday and lingers through Monday. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler, but the humidity will be much less making for more comfortable conditions. For temperatures, highs on Saturday will still be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s and that will continue on Sunday and Monday. But overnight lows Saturday night and Sunday night will be cooler with readings in the upper 60s nw to low to mid 70s se. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sfc high pressure builds north of the area with stacked high pressure residing off the Southeast Coast through Mon night. A thermal trough develops in the lee of the Appalachians for Tue/Tue night, and then a cold front is expected to track through the area on Wed...exiting the coast Thu morning. Conditions will become increasingly more humid ahead of the front. Thunderstorm activity expected to become widely scattered Tue as convection develops invof lee trough. The frontal passage Wed/Wed night will provide a better focus for more organized thunderstorms to occur. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE VA/NE NC on Thu. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds across the Midwest with dry conditions anticipated for the Mid Atlantic Region Thu night-Fri night. Highs Tue-Wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s beaches. Highs Thu/Fri low-mid 80s; mid-upper 70s beaches. Lows Mon-Tue nights generally 70-75F. Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to 70-75F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Nearly solid line of tstms now moving through central VA-SE MD and will continue E through 02-04Z/19 w/ possible gusty winds and lower/VRB CIGs-VSBYs (mainly at RIC/SBY). Did hold onto VCSH/VCTS invof the rest of the sites through about 04-06Z/19 as convection is slow to wane overnight. Mainly VFR conditions Sat though possible ISOLD tstms in the afternoon SE VA-NE NC invof lingering weakening frontal boundary. VFR Sat night-Mon as high pressure builds back into the region. Some early morning fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings. && .MARINE... A cold front approaches the region through this evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a weak boundary along the Mid Atlantic Coast. Winds generally south 10-15kt the rest of today with locally higher gusts of 20-30kt possible in thunderstorms. The front crosses the waters late tonight with more widespread and organized thunderstorms anticipated. Strong wind gusts above 30kt, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will be the primary impacts. Seas 2-3ft build to 3-4ft this evening and during the frontal passage later tonight...subsiding closer to daybreak Sat morning. Waves will average 1-3ft through tonight. Synoptic SCA conditions still not anticipated tonight except with the thunderstorms associated with the front. If any headlines are necessary, they can be handled with short- fused MWS or SMW products. Winds light and variable aob 10kt by mid-morning Sat through Sun as the front stalls near the Mid Atlantic Coast. Winds become more onshore Sun night into Mon as the front sags well south of the area. Seas subsiding from 2-3ft Sat aftn to 2ft by late Sat night through most of Tuesday. South winds Tue/Tue night as a thermal trough develops inland with seas building to 2-3ft Tue/3-4ft Tue night. Winds SW around 15kt Bay/ocean Tue night/Wed as the next cold front is expected to cross the region. Seas/waves average 2-3ft. Winds N-NE aob 15kt behind front Thu/Fri. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding is expected for areas adjacent to Ches Bay invof Bishops Head late this evening. Water levels should reach 3.5ft around high tide, which occurs at 1136 PM this evening. Cambridge is expected to reach 3.1ft, thus remaining below minor flooding thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...BMD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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