Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010809 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 409 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADILY VEERS TO THE SW ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2: RIC: 100/1980 ORF: 97/1993 SBY: 97/1980 ECG: 96/1943 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM CLIMATE...AKQ

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