Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161136 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 636 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. Low pressure tracking east from the Great Lakes to New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. Its associated cold front pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc hi pres (~1030mb) remains invof FA attm...will be sitting over the region through today. Area of SCT -RA moving through the FA now...and models trend toward a gradual dissipating of that -RA through the morning hours. CAD will remain set up over the FA today...and w/ considerable cloudiness...result in a chilly day. Highs only in the l-m40s in VA/MD...u40s in NE NC. Additional QPF through the morning hours averaging aob 0.10". && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak CAD lingers tonight...keeping mainly cloudy conditions. Little/no forcing for pcpn. Lows in the u30s to around 40F. Strong sfc low pressure moves NE to the SRN Great Lakes on Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area. Winds becoming S scour out the CAD during the morning. Models continue to trend toward another wet/dreary day though...w/ hi chance-likely PoPS over the northern 1/2 of the FA...less rain and lower PoPS but still mainly cloudy across the S. Temps moderate but with all the clouds...highs likely do not get out of the 50s (will maintain l60s far S for now). Cold Front passes through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see some breaks in the clouds and a warm day with highs at least in the 60s. Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air is slower to arrive. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period begins Wednesday night with the expectation of above normal temperatures. There is some uncertainty with the details of PCPN. Plenty of Pacific moisture will swish across the CONUS and an upper level ridge will briefly build over the eastern part of the nation around Friday and Saturday. A cold front and associated short wave move off to the southeast Wednesday night with any showers ending that evening. Dry weather is expected Thursday into early Friday. A short wave may bring a few showers Friday and Friday night especially southern portions with POPS set no higher than 30 percent. During the weekend...a complex low pressure system and cutoff upper level low develop in the Plains States. PCPN associated with this system should stay to the west through Sunday. Fairly consistent day to day temperatures are expected Thursday through Sunday with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Area of -RA exiting SE VA/coastal NE NC in the next couple of hrs. Otrw...BKN-OVC CIGS (roughly 3-6kft) to continue into tonight...except at SBY where CIGS will average 8-15kft. Winds will generally remain light/VRB through the forecast period. Low (mainly high end MVFR) CIGS will prevail into early Tue as a warm front approaches and moves through the area Tue. Some IFR will be possible Mon night and early Tue. Conditions improve late Tue through Wed but there will be a chance for showers Wed as a cold front moves through. The weather improves once again Thu and Fri as the cold front moves south of the area and high pressure takes over from the north. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high pres centers over the Mid Atlantic...eventually sliding offshore this aftn. Sub-sca conditions for today with winds below 10 kt, 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. A warm front lifts north through the area Tue, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the waters early Wed. Hi pres returns Thu. Sub-sca conditions expected through this period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...AJB/ALB/LSA MARINE...MAS

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