Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 301525 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1025 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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INITIAL CDFNT OFFSHORE...W/ RA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING SO FAR THIS MRNG NR THE CST SHIFTING E AS WELL. VRB CLDS/MCLDY ACRS THE FA ATTM AS NW WNDS BECOMING GUSTY (W/ AND BEHIND SECOND CDFNT). HAVE ADDED SCT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO AREAS NNE OF RIC NEXT FEW HRS...OTRW DRY THE REST OF TDA W/ CLDNS RMNG SCT-BKN. NW WNDS TO GUST TO 30-40 MPH THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ERN SHORE STARTING AT 21Z/30. TEMPERATURES MNLY IN THE L/M40S INTO ERY/MID AFTN...WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN THE L/M30S THROUGH ABT 20-21Z/30.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION SAT. NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. WIND CHILLS SAT MORNING START OUT FROM 0-15 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO AND WARM THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE FRI NIGHT/SAT. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGHS SAT IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST FROM THE NRN NECK TO VIRGINIA BEACH...AND IN THE LOW-MID 30S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS A CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THEREFORE EXPECT WARMER LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE 20S. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING INTO MONDAY. WHILE ISENTROPIC SFCS SHOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING...TIME HEIGHTS/CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL DRY LOW LEVELS AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE MOISTURE PRESENT IS FROM INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUN MORNING. THE BEST LIFT/OMEGA MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST CENTERED AROUND 21Z...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING IN NW AREAS OF THE FA (FROM ROUGHLY SOUTH HILL TO RICHMOND TO SALISBURY). THE INCOMING LOW CROSSES THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WHICH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER DURING SUN NIGHT. THEREFORE...BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IS ACROSS FAR NWRN COUNTIES FROM LOUISA TO SALISBURY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE (2 INCHES OR LESS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE). A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY FARMVILLE TO THE RICHMOND METRO AREA TO THE VA EASTERN SHORE...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES SUN NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TRICKY SUN AS WARMING IS EXPECTED UNDER DRIER CONDITIONS SUN MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 50 SOUTH TO UPPER 50S CNTRL VA TO LOWER 40S NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES SUN NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT (WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS OF A DEGREE OR TWO) DUE TO THE STEADY PRECIPITATION PRESENT. LOW SUN NIGHT LOW-MID 30S NW TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PCPN THEN ENDS FM W TO E ON MON WITH HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE LO 30S N TO LO 40S S UNDER STRONG CAA. THE GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS STORM IS THAT THE CURRENT TRACK FAVORS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FA WITH SOME WINTRY PCPN MIXED IN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER N AND W AREAS. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE OVER WHERE THE RA/SN LINE DEVELOPS. ANY PCPN ASSCTD WITH MON STORM IS OFFSHORE BY 00Z TUE. CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030 MB HIGH APPRCHS FA. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S SRN MOST CNTYS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS L-M30S. CLDS INCRS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF NXT SYSTM. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW AS ANY PCPN SHUD STAY S&W OF FA THRU 12Z WED. LOWS MAY OCCUR IN THE EVE THEN STDY OR RISE AFTR MIDNIGHT AS A S WIND DVLPS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S SERN AREAS. MODELS SOLNS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTM. GFS TAKES SFC LOW NE INTO THE GT LAKES RGN WITH THE TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE FA WED NITE. IT ALSO DVLPS A LOW ON SRN END OF BNDRY. THIS ALLOWS SAID BNDRY TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK NE ALONG THE SERN US COAST BUT STAY JUST SOUTH OF AKQ FA. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS MILDER AIR IN AHEAD OF THE BNDRY FOR MAINLY RAIN...BUT A MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED NITE AS CAA DVLPS BEHIND IT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING INTO THE GT LAKES BUT SHOWS A STRNGR AND WETTER SRN STREAM LOW MOVG NE ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE AWAY FROM RGN THURS. WENT WITH CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED. MAY START OFF AS A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS PIEDMONT ERLY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PCPN MOVES IN. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR A RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO WED NIGHT FOR NOW. THIS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE CALL AND WILL LIKELY ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WHEN THE COLD AIR OVRSPRDS THE RGN. LOWS M20S-L30S. COLD WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST THU MORN. OTW...CLRD AND COLD AS STRNG HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS M30S-L40S. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS NOW SHIFTING TO THE WNW AND WILL THEN TURN TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY KORF/KECG THROUGH 13-14Z...OTHERWISE CONDS TURN DRY. STILL DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MORE THAN ABOUT 4000 FT AND VSBYS WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SO RETAINED P6SM WORDING. GUSTY NW WIND WILL DEVELOP AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT FROM 18Z-23Z. AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN KSBY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTING TO 20-25 KT (30-35KT AT KSBY). DRY/LESS WINDY SAT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT KRIC/KSBY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS ON MON. && .MARINE...
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DECIDED TO CANCEL ALL RAMP-UP SCA HEADLINES NOW THAT GALES ARE WITHIN 12 HRS OF OCCURRING...OTHERWISE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO OVERALL THINKING WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATER THIS MORNING AND INCREASE...BUT WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTN AS COLD AIR SURGE WILL LAG BY SEVERAL HRS. THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS...35-40 KT IN THE BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS...AND ~35 KT IN MOST OF THE RIVERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST AND WHEN MUCH COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -12C) REALLY SURGE OVER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE WATERS (+5 TO +8 C). SEAS & WAVES RESPOND TO THESE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG 7-11 FT WITH WAVES IN CHES BAY 4-6 FT. GIVEN THE TEMPS/WIND GUSTS AND CURRENT WATER TEMPS...HAVE A FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY FOR THE CSTL WTRS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HOWEVER...HAVE DELAYED THE HEADLINE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC TEMPS OVER THE WATERS WILL GENLY BE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS IS WHERE SOME MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY. KEPT LIGHT ICING MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH & IN THE CHES BAY ATTM. WINDS DIMINISH ON SAT...THOUGH GALES WILL PERSIST IN THE MORNING OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA`S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BLO SCA LVLS BY SAT EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT. NEXT LOW CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GENLY HAVE WINDS IN SCA RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH AS MORE DETAILS IN TIMING AND LOCATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ARISE WILL FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AND COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GALES.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ635-636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-637. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656- 658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ652-654. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LKB MARINE...LKB

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