Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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479 FXUS61 KAKQ 291727 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 127 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure prevails off the Southeast Coast through the weekend. A backdoor cold front will drop south across the northern Delmarva peninsula tonight then lift back north as a warm front Sunday. The next cold front pushes across the region Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong mid/upper level "Bermuda" ridge is located off the Southeast coast, with an active stream of convection on the nrn periphery of the ridge from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure is co-located with the ridge aloft offshore, with a stationary front from the Midwest to the Northeast. Morning stratus has been stubborn to erode this morning, with temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80F. The morning stratus should erode by midday, with sct cu and ci aloft by aftn resulting in partly sunny conditions. Today should be the hottest day with 850mb temperatures around 17-18C, which will support summer like highs in the low 90s W of the Bay, 85-90F for the Ern Shore, and low 80s at the beaches. A SW wind of 10-15mph will gust to around 20 mph. Record highs will be approached, see the climate section below for more details. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Bermuda high remains in control. However, a s/w low will track along the frontal boundary to the north. Once this low moves east, the boundary is progged to sag south. However, the models differ in position of the boundary which poses a challenge for pops tonight. NAM farther north and keeps the fa dry while the GFS has the boundary as far south as AKQ northern zones. Given the differences, elected to keep the current grids which shows a 30 pop across the lwr Md eastern shore through 06Z with a buffer area of slght chc pops. Warm and humid with lows from the mid 60s to lwr 70s. The front then lifts back north a bit keeping the fa in the summer like airmass Sunday. H85 temps somewhat cooler than Saturday (14- 16C). Mstly sunny with highs in the mid-upr 80s west of the bay, low- mid 80s easterrn shore except 70 at the beaches. Dry Sunday night as the models keep pcpn west of the fa thru 12Z Mon. Pt to mstly cldy and warm. Lows in the 60s. Moisture progged a bit slower east ahead of the apprchg cold front Mon. Backed off on pops thru abt noon Monday. Pops quickly ramp up Monday afternoon as a decent feed of moisture in noted, especially west of I95 (chc to likely pops after 18Z). Ridge holds tight along the coast so think most areas stay dry thru 21Z. PW`s arnd 1.5 inches so kept mdt rainfall rates in the grids. Highs in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 along the coast. Cold front crosses the fa Monday night and offshore by 12Z Tue. A decent slug of moisture progged ahead of it. Adjusted the grids for better timing of the pcpn with likely pops across the west during the evening then chc pops after midnite. Chc pops during the evening along the se coast with likely pops after midnight. Turning cooler with lows from the upr 50s NW to mid 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak high pressure will provide dry wx for Tue morning thru Wed, as it slides fm the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Lows Mon night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Tue in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Tue night ranging thru the 50s into the lower 60s. Highs on Wed ranging thru the 70s to near 80. Low pressure will approach fm the WSW late Wed night thru Thu, then lifts just WNW of the area during Fri while pushing a cold front into the region. Pops will increase to high chc on Thu, then high chc to likely Pops for Thu night and Fri. Highs on Thu will range fm the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Thu night will range fm the lower 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Fri will range fm the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A stationary front will stay north of the area through the forecast period. This should allow for VFR conditions through tonight. One exception to this may be at SBY this evening as a weak disturbance moves along the front which may help bring scattered showers and storms to the eastern shore, allowing conditions to breiefly drop to sub VFR conditions. In addition, the guidance suggests some marine air will move into the eastern shore overnight into Sunday morning as the front briefly moves south of SBY, potentially allowing for MVFR conditions. Outlook...Mainly dry weather expected through the remainder of the weekend, although some convection is possible across Delaware tonight along a backdoor cold front. Next frontal boundary late Monday into Tuesday with possibility of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... No headlines necessary with this forecast package. Broad Bermuda high pres allows for 10-15 kt S/SW flow today, with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-4 ft seas over coastal wtrs. A backdoor front may drop into northern areas tonight, before pushing back north as a warm front Sun. S/SW winds again 10-15 kt Sun with the high offshore. Next cold front approaches the area Mon, and with a tight pres gradient ahead of the front, SCA conditions of 15-25 kt sustained winds gusting to 30 kt are likely starting around midday Mon, lasting into Mon night until the cold front crosses the wtrs. Winds decrease into Tue as CAA is weak behind the frnt. && .HYDROLOGY... Keeping flood advisory in Mecklenburg county going today, with VDOT continuing to report numerous roads closed in the Kerr Dam area, creating ongoing navigation concerns. && .CLIMATE... It still appears likely that Richmond and Norfolk will each end the month with the warmest April on record. Very warm temperatures expected today and an unseasonably warm April to date should combine to push the April 2017 average temperature above that which occurred in 1994. As noted below, both of the previous records on the books were established in 1994. This month`s temperatures look to end up around one degree above those values. Average temperatures / Record Average Temperature Through 4/28/17: APR 2017 Avg temp Record Location to date Avg temp Year -------- -------- ------ ---- Richmond 63.1 63.2 1994 Norfolk 65.3 64.7 1994 ********************************************* Record high temps for today 4/29: RIC...93 in 1974 ORF...92 IN 1974 SBY...89 IN 1974 ECG...90 IN 1974 Record high min temps for today 4/29: RIC...67 in 1956 ORF...66 in 1981 SBY...65 in 1974 ECG...67 in 1981 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR/TMG AVIATION...MPR/MRD MARINE...MAS HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...

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