Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281542 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1142 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a tropical depression will linger off the southeast coast Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Current analysis indicating ~1028 mb surface high pressure centered off the New England coast, with what is now a Tropical Depression located well off the Se US coast (405 miles SE of Cape Hatteras). Please see latest forecast from TPC/NHC for details, though no significant impacts are expected for the local area at through the next 36 hrs. Earlier fog and low cloud cover has dissipated, but ample low level moisture with flow off the ocean continues to generate mostly cloudy/ BKN conditions over southeast VA and northeast NC. For the rest of the CWA, skies avg partly to mostly sunny. Dew pts will again lower into the 60s this aftn except near the immediate coast and over all of far southeast VA and northeast NC. Will maintain 20-30% POPS over the far S/SE, ridging/warm temperatures aloft should keep it too stable elsewhere for any rain chances despite the periodic SCT/BKN cloudiness. Sfc winds will average 10-15 mph at the coast...5-10 mph inland. Highs in the lower-mid 80s at the immediate coast...upper 80s to around 90 F farther inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Not much change to the pattern tonight-Mon/Tue. Another weak front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA) as the tropical depression (or possibly gaining strength to a named tropical storm) lingers off the coastal Carolinas. Highs will average in the u80s- l90s (low-mid 80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s-l70s along w/ 15-30% chances for mainly aftn/eve shras/tstms over SE VA- NE NC zones.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will continue to go with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Will have a slgt to small chc (15-30%) for pcpn Tue ngt into Thu evening fm the combination of possible tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area late Wed thru Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into the region for Thu ngt thru Sat, as high pressure blds in fm the N and slides to just offshore by late Sat. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue ngt and Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri ngt. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Locally dense fog and low clouds (LIFR/IFR) at RIC through 13Z, otherwise low level ENE flow bringing in SCT-BKN clouds (cigs roughly 1000-1500ft) - most concentrated invof SE VA-NE NC...difficult attm to determine exact coverage though. Will not rule out isolated pcpn...mainly near ORF/ECG through today...otherwise generally high end MVFR to VFR in SCT- BKN CU. Reinforcing frontal boundary settle S across the FA late Mon-Mon ngt. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wed. For Sunday through Wednesday...isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG). && .MARINE... Sub-sca conditions will continue across the waters through at least the next few days. Sfc hi pressure over New England this morng will slide offshore tda with onshore flow continuing over the local area. Expect 1-3 ft waves over the bay and 3-4 ft seas over the coastal waters. Winds average 10-15 kt for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens and weak low pressure areas or possible tropical lows will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc. && .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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