Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162057 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 357 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure remains over the local area through tonight. A warm front lifts north through the area Tuesday morning. Low pressure tracks east from the Great Lakes to New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. Its associated cold front pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon, with high pressure building over the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest analysis indicating sfc high pressure (~1030 mb) remaining centered over the Delmarva with sfc low pressure centered over Missouri. Aloft, a strong upper low is cutoff across the central Plains, with a weak ridge axis in place from along the southeast US coast to the OH Valley. Still mainly cloudy/cool across the local area with temperatures in the 40s. Mainly cloudy, though Cigs have lifted a bit over the past few hrs with primarily dry conditions (will keep mention of drizzle over the northern Piedmont where Cigs are lower and temp/dew pt spreads are less. For tonight, the upper Low over Missouri begins to weaken to an open wave/trough and will track northeast to near Lake Michigan by Tue morning. This will help lift a warm front N closer to the CWA overnight (from SC this evening to central and western NC by daybreak Tue). Not much forcing exists for measurable precipitation over the AKQ CWA, but as the front gets closer to the area, expect Cigs to lower overnight and have added drizzle to much of the forecast area after 06-09Z. Temperatures will fall only slightly from values this aftn, lows will avg in the lower 40s S and upper 30s/around 40 F N. May also see some fog/reduced VSBYS develop later tonight, but not sure as to the extent of actual fog given there will be stratus so decided against "fog" wording in the grids for now.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Strong sfc low pressure over the western Great Lakes will continue to track ENE on Tue...lifting a warm front N through the local area by aftn. Winds becoming S scour out the CAD during the morning or early aftn, but will have a period of likely POPS over the N and chc POPS farther S. Temps moderate but with all the clouds...highs likely do not get out of the 50s over the N, with some lower 60s possible over the S. Expect somewhat of a lull in precip by later aftn and early evening, then POPS ramp back up as a cold front approaches the region from the W Tue night. Strong shortwave passes by from 09-15Z/Wed. Best lift and moisture convergence looks to reside over the eastern shore Tue evening, then with a line of showers pushing S overnight into wed morning. Will carry 30-50% POPS well inland, with likely POPS/60% closer to the coast. Cold Front passes through Wed...and with deeper mixing and WNW flow in low levels...should see skies turn partly to mostly sunny along with a warm day with highs at least in the mid-upper 60s. Showers will be most likely across the E and SE where drier air is slower to arrive. Dry/mostly clear Wed night and Thu as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Lows Wed night in the mid 30s well inland to the lower 40s far SE. Highs in the 50s Thu.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A series of low pressure systems will lift northeast from the Southern Plains during the long term period. This pattern will keep temperatures above normal for the long term along with a few rounds of precipitation. The timing of the precipitation has been moved a little earlier than the previous forecast. The first system will move through in the form of an upper level short wave Friday with likely POPs except 50 percent POPs for the northeast North Carolina counties. The precipitation ends from southwest to northeast late Friday and Friday evening. The next system will be stronger with a cutoff upper over the Mississippi Valley and associated deep surface low and frontal boundaries extending across the Mid Atlantic States. There is a good chance for showers in the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday afternoon which continue into Monday. Kept POPs no higher than 40 to 50 percent due to a lack of confidence on days 6 and 7. Max temperatures in the 50s Friday through Sunday warm to the lower 60s west of the Bay Monday. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Friday morning warm into the 40s Saturday through Monday mornings. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 17z...High pressure near the Mid Atlantic Coast will slip off to the east. As low pressure moves northeast from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes...a warm front will approach from the southwest. Low level moisture will keep ceilings generally MVFR and lower to IFR mainly at RIC early Tuesday morning. Periods of light drizzle over southeast Virginia will diminish this afternoon. Showers develop mainly northern portions during the day Tuesday. Winds will be light through the 18Z TAF period. OUTLOOK...The warm front moves north of the region Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation moves out of the area and conditions improve. a cold front moves through Wednesday morning and may be associated with a few showers. The weather improves once again Thu. An upper level system may bring showers to the area Friday. Dry weather returns for Saturday. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary remains south of the area today as sfc high pres centers over the Mid Atlantic...eventually sliding offshore this aftn. Sub-sca conditions for today with winds below 10 kt, 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. A warm front lifts north through the area Tue, with winds becoming southerly Tue ahead of the next cold front which crosses the waters early Wed. Hi pres returns Thu. Sub-sca conditions expected through this period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS/TMG

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