-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210653
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will track east northeast off the southeast coast
and out to sea today into Monday morning. High pressure will
build over the area for later Monday through Tuesday morning,
then slides off the coast by Tuesday evening. A cold front will
swing across the region on Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 900 PM EDT Saturday...

Evening wx analysis shows a cold front lying across NW portions
of the CWA. Dew points have fallen into the upper 20s-low 30s
behind the front. Expect a continued drop in dew points (and
temps to some degree) as the front continues through the area
tonight. It`ll remain mostly clear to partly cloudy through the
night before an increase in clouds across the SE as srn stream
low pressure gets closer to the area (but remains offshore of
the Carolina coast). Low temps will drop into the upper
30s/lower 40s N to the upper 40s/around 50F S. Otherwise, little
changes to the rainfall forecast heading into tomorrow and the
forthcoming discussion remains unchanged from earlier.

Sun into early Mon morning, a southern stream low pressure
system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states then
off the SE coast, and out to sea. Rain chances begin by mid
morning over far southern VA/NE NC, and spread NE through the
aftn. With dew pts quite low as the rain initiates (in the 30s N
to lower 40s S), this will make for a very chilly day where the
rain becomes widespread as a result of column cooling
processes. PoPs during the aftn range from 60-80% over the S/SE,
to less than 20% across the northern tier of the CWA. QPF
amounts are expected to range from 0.25"+ in NE NC to only a few
hundredths or less from metro RIC and pts north. As noted
above, temperatures will be quite cool, especially if the rain
were to begin early in the morning. For now, the forecast will
show high temperatures from south central/SE VA and NE NC to avg
in the mid 50s, with upper 50s to around 60F to the N (but some
areas may barely get out of the lower 50s in the far S and if
the rain stays far enough S throughout the day, northern zones
could reach into the lower 60s by late aftn).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

That system moves out to sea Sunday night, with mainly just chc
PoPs lingering over far SE VA and NE NC Sunday evening,
followed by clearing overnight. With dry air in the low levels
overnight (dew pts falling into the lower 30s NW), expect lows
to reach down into the mid 30s over the piedmont, potentially
close to freezing in the far NW in the coldest spots. Did not
add patchy frost wording to the grids, but this may need to be
addressed by the next shift. The models depict ~1025mb sfc high
pressure centered from east Texas to the mid MS/lower OH Valley
on Monday, ridging E into the local area. Aloft, a weak trough
will be in place, but the sky should be sunny or mostly sunny
across the local area (with a bit more cloud cover across the
far SE). Highs on Monday will be warmer than Sunday, but still
5-10F below avg for late April, ranging from the lower- mid 60s
near the coast to the upper 60s well inland. With low dew pts
continuing and sfc high pressure becoming centered over the
local area Mon night, expect a clear sky, light winds, and good
radiational cooling conditions farther E than Sun night.
Forecast lows are in the mid/upper 30s over much of the CWA,
with lower 40s near the coast. At least patchy frost will be
possible over much of the CWA. Turning warmer on the backside of
the sfc high for Tuesday, with a light southerly flow by aftn
inland. Mainly sunny with highs lower 70s inland, and mid to
upper 60s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 405 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure slides offshore by Tue evening, before another
cold front brings a slight or small chance of showers Wed. Not
as cool Tue night with a southerly flow and increasing clouds
(lows in the mid 40s to around 50F). The system on Wed will be
northern stream, with low level flow turning westerly rather
quickly. As such, moisture will be limited, and PoPs will only
be 20-25% N and 15% or less over the S. Highs will be in the
low-mid 70s. Another fairly strong high pressure system is
progged to build in from the Great Lakes Thu-Fri. The 12Z/20 GFS
is the strongest and therefore the coldest with low
temperatures both Wed night/thu AM and again thu night/Fri AM.
For now have split the difference going slightly cooler than the
NBM for lows, with the potential for some additional frost,
especially across the piedmont and over the northern 1/2 of the
CWA. The high will slide off to the NE or E during Fri. Highs
will be in low-mid 60s NE to near 70F SW Thu, and in the upper
60s to lower 70s Fri. There will be at least a low chc for rain
by Sat as the next system lifts ENE through the Great
Lakes/upper midwest (with quite a bit of model spread at this
time). PoPs are only 20-30% for now w/ highs Sat mainly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR CIGs (isolated MVFR CIGs) will prevail at the TAF
sites through at least 12-13z this morning, with winds becoming
N or NE and increasing at bit. Rain chances increase quickly
between 12z-15z this morning across southern VA and NE NC,
becoming widespread by late this morning through this aftn
at ECG/ORF, and likely PHF as well. There is a chance (30-50%)
for rain at RIC, and a slightly lower chance (20-30%) for rain
at SBY. Expect flight restrictions to MVFR initially with a
period of IFR CIGs likely at ECG/ORF/PHF from late this morning
into this evening. RIC/SBY will mostly be VFR (maybe briefly
MVFR) even if there is some light rain. Conditions will improve
to VFR from NW to SE this evening into late tonight, as the rain
and low pressure area push well ESE of the region.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail Mon-Tue, and probably for
most of Wed as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

The surface cold front has cleared the local waters and will likely
stall off the NC coast later this evening. Aloft, flow is largely
zonal with a trough over eastern Canada and a weak ridge over the
Gulf Coast. Winds locally are variable at 5-10 kt. Waves are
1-2 ft with seas 3-4 ft offshore.

A secondary  front is forecast to drop southward across the
waters tonight with decent cold advection and N winds increasing
to 15-20 kt with gusts 25 kt. Opted to include the Currituck
Sound in the inherited SCA headlines for the Ches Bay and lower
James River with a period of 15-20 kt NNE winds late tonight
into Sunday. Winds become NNE or NE for the southern waters
prior to sunrise tomorrow which will likely allow seas to build
to 4-5 ft near and south of the VA/NC border. Accordingly, have
hoisted SCA headlines for this zone from 4am into the early
evening. Headlines may need to be extended for the Currituck
Sound if winds stay as strong as some of the hi-res guidance
suggests. An area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late
Sunday and into early next week supporting a persistent NE flow
and building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually need
another SCA over southern coastal waters south of the VA/NC
border by the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep
seas aob 4 ft with this forecast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ632>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR