Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 131439 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1039 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA OF SCTD SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO WRN/CNTRL CNTIES LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL SPREAD ACRS THE REGION FM W TO E THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...AS A TROF OF LO PRES PUSHING ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE CST. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS (60-70%) EVERYWHERE THRU THIS AFTN...EVEN THO RAINFALL AMTS WILL GENERALLY BE .25 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST OF THE RGION. HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE OVR NE NC LATER TODAY INTO TNGT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL IN THE SE...SO HAVE JUST SLGT CHC OF TSTM. HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 70S EXTRM NW TO THE LWR 80S EXTRM SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THE FAR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 70S SUNDAY. DUE TO AN INCREASE OF SUNSHINE FROM EARLIER FORECASTS...HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLN DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS RUN A BIT FASTER WITH FROPA (TUES MORNING) THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME INSTAB NOTED AHEAD OF BNDRY SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD WITH THUNDER CHCS OVR SRN SCTNS. MILD AHEAD OF THE BNDRY WITH LOWS MON NITE IN THE 60S. HIGHS TUE 75-80. FRONTAL BNDRY STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PRD. MOST OF THE SGNFCNT MSTR GETS PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...SO WILL INDCT A DRY PRD WED AND WED NIGHT. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60S BEACH AREAS. HIGHS WED 70-75. GIVEN HIGHS PRS TO THE NORTH AND STALLED FRNTL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH... XPCT THE PERSISTENT & INCREASINGLY MOIST NE FLOW TO KEEP CSTL AREAS RTHR CLDY WITH PERIODIC SHWR CHCS ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. OTW...HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH DOMINATES. HIGHS L-M70S. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT 60S CSTL AREAS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEST IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN TO E/SE BUT CIGS SHOULD DROP ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHEN WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHERLY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER DURING PCPN MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER. PCPN AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SFC HI PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE OF THE WTRS THROUGH TDA. ONSHORE WNDS (LIGHTER THAN PAST 24 HRS) THROUGH THE MRNG...BECOME BRIEFLY SSW AHD OF APPROACHING LO PRES AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS XPCD THROUGH THIS EVE. THAT CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS MID EVE...A BIT OF A LULL IN SPEEDS AS WNDS BECOME NLY POST FROPA. AS SFC HI PRES FM THE OH VLY BUILDS E TNGT...SPEEDS TO INCRS TO 15-20 KT OVR MOST OF THE WTRS AFT MDNGT...AND RESULT IN INCRS IN WAVES (BAY)/SEAS (OCN) THROUGH SUN MRNG. WNDS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN SUN AND WAVES/SEAS WILL BE SLO TO LWR AS WELL (LASTLY INVOF FAR SRN OCN WTRS). RAISING SCAS FOR BAY/OCN/SND...MNLY FM AFT MDNGT TNGT THROUGH MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN. ANOTHOR LO PRES SYS AND ASSOCIATED CD CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA MON NGT AND TUE. EXPECT W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYS SHIFTING BACK TO THE N AFT FROPA WITH YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE LIKELY. DATA INDICATES THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS APPEAR LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ652- 654-656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LSA NEAR TERM...TMG/LSA SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB

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