Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250612 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 212 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off the Carolina coast tonight...will slowly track across the North Carolina coastal plain Tuesday...then continue northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Double barrel sfc lo pres (one invof interior ern SC...the other a few hundreds to the E (offshore)) are tied to slow moving upper level low slowly circulating near AGS this eve. Differing solutions on how the two sfc lo pres areas interact...while the upper low continues ENE overnight. Large ribbon of significant RA associated w/ those features will be spreading slowly N into at least NE NC/srn-SE VA. An overall lull in pcpn across the FA attm...expecting PoPs to increase by late tonight from S-N. Continuing w/ tstm mention...though main concern will be psbl MDT/HVY RA. ENE winds will also be increasing and will maintain current wind advisory (into early Tue) for psbl 45 mph gusts along coastal VA/NE NC. Lows from the l50s NW to the l-m60s in NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models differ on exact track / intensity of the tropical moisture progged to get absorbed then rotate around the low Tues. NAM / ARW`s track seems a bit out of place (to far north) given the synoptic setup, thus leaned toward a GFS / SREF blend of taking the moistures center inland over the NC coastal Plain (merging both systems into one) by 18Z with the entire system then slowly lifting ne to a position near VA Beach Wed eve, then tracking ne from the Delmarva coast to just east of OXB by 12Z Wed. Cat pops all areas Tuesday with periods of mdt to lclly hvy rainfall shifting ne towards the ern shore by 21Z. Low thunder chcs ern half of fa with even some brightening or partial sun across the se as a dry slot may tend to cut off the deep moisture feed. Highs lwr 60s NW to low-mid 70s SE. Likey to cat pops cont Tue evening as the system slowly moves up the eastern shore. Pops taper off west to east after 06Z as the best moisture gets shunted towards the coast. Lows 55-60. Low pressure progged to move slowly away from the Delmarva coast Wed morning then gets pushed farther offshore after 18Z as high pressure builds into the area from the west. Kept low chc pops along coastal areas during the morning (wrap around moisture), otw decreasing cloudiness west to east. Milder with highs in the 70s, except mid- upr 60s along the eastern shore. Mainly clr and mild Wed nite. Lows upr 50s-mid 60s. Upr level ridge builds across the area in the wake of the departing low Thurs. Dry with summer-like temps expected. Highs in the mid-upr 80s west of the Bay, upr70s-lwr 80s along the coast. Headline wise, decided to not issue any flood headlines attm. QPF as of this writing has been around 2 inches on a line from AVC-RZZ, less than one inch elsewhere. Seems models have overdone QPF up to this point and have now shifted the heaviest QPF a bit farther to the west. Quick check with the countys reveal no water issues. Although another 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible there, 3-6 HR FFG levels are not expected to be reached. Could have some minor issues given lclly hvy rates Tues morning, best handled with short fused statements. Some 2+ inch amounts are also possible along the nrn Outer Banks in convection closer to the front. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term period will feature above normal temps with mainly dry wx. For Thu night/Fri, deep SWly flow continues across the eastern seaboard as an upper-level ridge then builds in through the weekend allowing for warm temps and dry wx as most of the energy aloft will stay N and W of the local area. At most a 20% chance of a late day shra/tstm Fri and Sat. High temps Fri through Sun in the 80s, pushing near 90 Sat and Sun. Low temps in the mid/upr 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ceilings have improved across southeast Virginia early this morning, but widespread IFR conditions still observed across much of the region. Low pressure has centered over eastern North Carolina early this morning, with a frontal boundary extending northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Brunt of the shower activity remains south of the local area, but light rain/drizzle continues inland reducing visibilities to IFR at times. VFR conditions across southeast Virginia are expected to be short lived as the surface low slowly builds northward. Expect widespread showers (locally heavy at times) to develop and lift northward across the region through the morning hours. IFR conditions prevail, except KECG. Initial band of showers lifts north of the region by late morning/early afternoon as the upper level low lifts along the Southeast coast. Areal coverage of the precipitation decreases across the region mid to late morning, but still expect light rain/drizzle and IFR conditions to persist. Additional scattered to numerous showers expected across the region this afternoon as the upper low lifts over the region. Easterly winds ramp up 06-09Z this morning with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. Winds diminish at or below 10-15 knots this afternoon as the surface low lifts over the region. Outlook: Precipitation lifts northeast of the region overnight, but IFR conditions expected to persist through late tonight. Conditions begin to slowly improve late tonight into Wednesday as the system moves farther north. Dry weather is in store for Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the southeast states. && .MARINE... Deteriorating marine conditions for tonight as E/NE flow strengthens in response to sfc low pres developing near the SE coast in association with a mid-level cutoff low. Mainly 15-25 kt winds this eveng...increasing to 20-30 kt over the Bay and coastal wtrs after midnight. Seas build to 5-8 ft tonight. The sfc low slides up the NC coast through Tue, with gale warnings in effect for 35-40 kt gusts for the entire marine area except the Upr James/York/Rappahannock Rivers where gusts up to 30 kt are expected. Think much of the wind may stay aloft due to strong WAA, but with decent pres falls over the area, upgraded the northern Bay and Sound to gale warnings also. Seas up to 8-11 ft, with a high surf advisory remaining in effect for 8-9 ft waves in the surf zone. Marine conditions then steadily improve Wed into Thu as the sfc low pulls off to the NE, and a weak pres gradient is expected on the back side of the low. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Current tidal departures are averaging around 1 to 1.5 feet in the lower Bay and southern coastal waters due to ongoing onshore flow. Have issued another round of coastal flood statements for the high tide cycle tonight. Levels are expected to stay below minor flooding thresholds. Increasing easterly flow ahead of low pressure lifting over the Carolinas tonight will push tidal departures toward 2 feet Tuesday morning. Depending on the exact track of the low, high end minor to low end moderate coastal flooding is possible Tuesday night. Departures subside Wednesday as low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast and flow becomes offshore. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ017-102. High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634- 654-656-658. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB/SAM/JEF MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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