Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 161148 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push across the region this morning, followed by high pressure returning tonight into Friday. A strong cold front will approach the area on Saturday...before pushing across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest weather analysis reveals ~998mb surface low pressure over Lake Huron/SE Ontario. The associated surface cold front extends SSW, and is pushing east of the Appalachians at sunrise. The front will cross the local area over the next few hours, with quick clearing from west to east through mid-morning. Ahead of the front, ~1026mb surface high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada, and extends to the SW offshore of the New England coast. Radar estimates indicate scattered rainfall amounts on the order of a few hundredths or less across the piedmont and north of RIC metro over to the MD eastern shore. Plenty of sunshine today with subsidence behind the shortwave and surface front on downslope W-NW flow. Post-frontal cold advection is initially on the weak side and as local thickness tools suggest, expect temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 60s, upper 50s to near 60 along the immediate coast. However, winds do increase with best h925-85 winds arriving late, with conditions to remain breezy for the late morning and afternoon. Have accounted for gusts to 15-20 mph inland...20 to 30 mph over the MD eastern shore. Secondary cold front crosses late this afternoon into this evening, with temperatures dropping off quickly this evening into the overnight, as sfc high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. Early morning lows from 30-35 inland and the lower MD eastern shore...to the low/mid 40s in SE VA-NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Mostly sunny Friday as dry and cool surface high pressure builds overhead, sliding offshore Friday night and Saturday. Not quite as mild Friday, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows Friday night/early Sat morning in the mid 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Milder in stronger return flow on Saturday. Compressional warming out ahead of next (stronger) cool front will drive maxima well into the 60s to around 70 across south central VA into SE VA, with low to mid 60s across northern zones. Brief window for pops coincident with frontal passage Sat evening (west) into late Saturday night (east of I-95). Clouds will gradually increase through the day, remaining partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Strong cold front pushes offshore on Sunday. After some lingering clouds (morning shower possible over coastal areas), subsidence behind the front likely at least resulting in partial clearing. Cooler with highs in the 50s to near 60 SE coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Maintained a dry forecast for the extended period with high pressure building over the eastern CONUS early next week. Highs temps in the 40s Mon increase to the 50s Tue and Wed. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Front crossing through the local area through mid-morning. Ceilings have improved to VFR range out west, MVFR to low-end VFR range along the coast. Front is expected to cross the area this morning, with ceilings to quickly recover to primarily VFR conditions all terminalsby mid-morning, as high pressure builds into the area. W-NW flow will be gusty at times from late morning into the afternoon with a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Tonight through Saturday, before the next cold front approaches the region Saturday night. Sub-VFR ceilings and rain showers will be possible with the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday allowing for a return to VFR. Gusty winds will be possible behind the front on Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... Pre-frontal trough crossing the waters early this morning as weak low pressure develops along this boundary. Overall, light rain showers will impact the waters through roughly sunrise. The low will remain southeast of the area and get pushed out to sea later this morning by a more well-defined cold front, which extends from a parent low located in srn Ontario. Pressure gradient gradually tightens throughout the day...then more quickly this evening and overnight as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and a decent cold air surge occurs. Seas are averaging 5-6ft all coastal waters early this morning and may subside briefly to 4-5ft today as winds diminish in wake of pre-frontal trough and ahead of more organized cold front approaching today. Winds generally W 10-15kt Bay/Ocean/Sound (5-10kt rivers). Winds become more NW this aftn/early evening and increase to an average of 15-25kt Bay/Ocean/Sound (10-15kt rivers) behind the front and as cold air advection occurs. Gusts peak around 30kt late evening and overnight Bay/Ocean with coastal waters north of Parramore Island gusting up to 35kt. Seas build to 5-7ft north/5-6ft south, and waves build to 4ft with the cold air surge. SCA`s in effect early this morning for coastal waters south of Parramore Island for seas of 5-6ft. Although seas today and winds early this evening fall within solid SCA conditions north of Parramore Island, opted to issue a gale warning which is now in effect for early this morning through 700 AM EST Friday morning. SCA ramp-up conditions are mentioned within the Marine Weather Message (MWW). Main period for gale gusts will be 700 PM this evening through 700 AM Friday. Elsewhere, SCA flags for Bay and srn coastal waters have been extended through noon on Friday. SCA flags have also been issued for Currituck Sound, Lower James River, and Rappahannock/York rivers...mainly late this evening into Friday morning. SCA conditions subside through Fri as high pressure builds back into the region from the west. Sfc high stalls over the coastal Carolinas Fri night...sliding offshore Sat. Next cold front to race through the area Sat aftn/evening. A much colder airmass and a decent pressure gradient present in its wake should provide the right set-up for solid SCA conditions Sat-Sun and possibly gale force gusts over the coastal waters Sat night into Sun morning. Seas building to 5-7ft north and 4-5ft south. Waves 3-4ft with periods of 5ft waves possible Sat night. Adverse conditions slow to subside Sun night into Mon. High pressure builds across the Southeast States Sun night through Mon night with benign conditions anticipated on the waters during this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ635-636-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ654-656-658. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD

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