-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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OR THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY POPS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAINLY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA WHILE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THROUGH OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WAS FORCING A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOVEMENT. THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUED OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS WEAK AND EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...KEPT LIKELY SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK WHERE MOS POPS ARE
CONSISTENTLY QUITE HIGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH UPR
50S ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NWD. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH/KY AREA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY PER
MODEL GUIDANCE WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BEST. POPS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...PCPN DECREASES OVER WRN PORTIONS BY MONDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...FURTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. PCPN DIMINISHES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTN
MAINLY OVER SRN VA/NE NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

72 HR QPF TOTALS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO AROUND
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH TOWARD THE COAST. SOME ISSUES ON AREA
RIVERS ARE PSBL EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS
FROM RIC TO SBY WERE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY
TO PHF AROUND 19-20Z. EVEN WITH THE SHOWERS CONDITIONS AT RIC WERE
MVFR AS OF 1730Z AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
THROUGH 22Z AS PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCE VSBYS TO JUST BELOW 3SM AND
THE NE FLOW DROPS CEILINGS TO JUST LESS THAN 1KFT. AT SBY
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 06Z WHEN
SE WINDS INCREASE AND STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE OCEAN. THE SHOWERS
NEAR RIC TO PTB SHOULD REACH PHF SHORTLY AFTER 20Z AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT PFH COULD BECOME BRIEFLY IFR WITH A FEW HEAVER
SHOWERS THROUGH 23Z. ONCE THE COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASES WITH SUNSET MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT PHF.

MORE SHOWERS WERE ONGOING FROM NEAR ECG WEST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY EXPAND
BRIEFLY BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN MAY STAY WEST OF ORF AND ECG THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY REACH ORF FROM
21Z-02Z BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY SCATTERED AS FAR EAST
AS ORF AND PHF. OVERALL CONDITIONS AT ORF AND PHF SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIC WILL BECOME IFR WITH STRATUS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH SBY AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE
COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SE VA
AND NE NC AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT RIC AND SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
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DIFFICULT FORECAST INITIALLY TO SEE IF WE GET TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY. ALL HIGH RES MODELS WOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. SEEING WINDS STAYING CLOSE BUT
JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT AT 19Z. EXPECT THAT BY 20Z MOST SITES WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THIS WIND INCREASE SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA INCREASING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH CONTINUED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SEE SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FEET ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO UNDER 5 FEET ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
ON SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND FINALLY BE NORTH OF THE WATERS
ON MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
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CURRENTLY THE AKQ 88D RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIAN ON HIS WAY. RETURN
TO SERVICE WILL HOPEFULLY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING.
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JAB
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...