Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010554 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 154 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR- LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL. HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA. LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I- 95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH). BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS ON FRI. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...BMD MARINE...LKB

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