Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250214 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1014 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will pass through the region overnight into early Tuesday morning. The front will stall south of the region across the Carolinas through the middle of the week. High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday before moving moving offshore Wednesday. The next cold front passes through the region on Friday.
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For the overnight, have adjusted pops to 20-40% for showers or tstms over the Lower MD ern shore based on latest radar and models indicating best lift, moisture and energy moving acrs this region with frontal boundary. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows near 70 or lower 70s in the piedmont, and lower to mid 70s elsewhere. For Tuesday...The cold front stalls south of the region which will allow for the continued chance for showers and thunderstorms across far southern VA and northeast NC. Elsewhere, dry conditions and mostly sunny skies are anticipated as high pressure influences the weather pattern. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s across the north to near 90 south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short term period starts off Tue night with just a lingering small chance of rain over far SE areas during the evening hours with the lingering frontal bndry sliding south of the area as high pres builds over the NE states. Expect NE flow under a partly cloudy sky with low temps mainly in the upr 60s/lwr 70s. Mainly dry wx then for Tue with just a slight chance of an aftn shra/tstm as sfc hi pres slides off the NE coast. High temps in the mid 80s. Slight chance PoPs again for Thu ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Return of sly flow will allow for high temps near 90F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The preference in the long term is to lean toward the ECMWF solution. This favors a slower cold fropa on Friday, followed by dry wx prevailing this weekend into the first of next week as the front dissipates to our south and a broad trough develops over the eastern CONUS. Have solid chc PoPs (40-50%) on Friday with the fropa. Limited chc PoPs (30-40%) to southern areas on Saturday, then dry all areas next Sunday/Monday. Max temps through the long term will generally be in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Little to no convection expected tonight although some isolated activity is possible over the Piedmont. A weak cold front crosses the region late tonight and into tomorrow morning shifting winds to the W/NW for Tuesday. Outlook: There will the continued chance for showers and thunderstorms across south central VA and NC on Tuesday, but VFR conditions should dominate through this period. A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period. && .MARINE... SW winds 5-15 kt, except 15-20 kt off the NC OBX currently ongoing across the marine area. Seas 2-3 ft; waves 1-2 ft. A cold front to the NW slowly approaches through the evening then sags south through the marine area overnight into Tues morning. SSW winds 10-15kt expected ahead of the front this evening, then as the front passes overnight, expect winds to veer around to the N/NW Tues morning at 10-15 kt, but taking until 8-10am to do so off the NC OBX. This surge should stay below SCA levels Tues morning, but some gusts to 20 kt may occur for a short time over the middle Ches Bay. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft perhaps briefly up to 3 ft early Tues. Behind the front, winds are expected to become onshore Tues aftn into Wednesday, then become SSE again on Thursday. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft. The next frontal boundary is expected Friday. SW winds 10-15 kt become N/NW again Friday night/Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels will approach minor flood thresholds early Tuesday morning around Bishops Head. Therefore...have issued a coastal flood statement. Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain below minor flood thresholds. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB/TMG SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJB/JEF MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.