-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA AS DEPICTED WELL BY ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. DESPITE A
NORTHEASTWARD CELL MOVEMENT...SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DISSIPATE OVER
SRN VIRGINIA. AROUND 14Z...CONVECTION BEGAN TO INCREASE OVER FROM
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY VA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE CWA EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PSBL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
AS OMEGA IS WEAK BELOW 10K FT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE PSBL ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE NORTHERN NECK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCTD SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...DAP/LSA
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...WRS