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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160734
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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ANTHR SUMMER LIKE DAY AHEAD. MODELS A BIT SLOWER WITH APPRCHG FRNTL
BNDRY FROM THE NRTH (WENT WITH NAM-SREF BLEND). XPCT PLNTY OF SUN
DURING THE MORNING HRS ALLOWING TMPS TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 80S
BY NOON. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS FROM THE M80S-L90S...A BIT COOLER AT
THE BEACHES.

FRNTL BNDRY MERGES WITH SFC TROF BY LATE AFTRN. DESPITE RTHR WEAK
DYNMCS...ENUF MSTR POOLING ALONG WITH INCRG INSTAB LEADS TO SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS VA THRU 00Z. WILL KEEP THE 20-40% POPS AS
BNDRY SAGS SOUTH. SO SVR WX XPCTD BUT LCL HVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WNDS PSBL IN ANY STORM.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FRNTL BNDRY SLOWLY DRIFTS S ACROSS SRN VA TONITE. ENUF SPRT TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...MAINLY IN THE EVE ALTHOUGH SOME SHWR ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER IVOF BNDRY AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS 60-65.

MODELS PROG FRNTL BNDRY TO STALL INVOF NRN NC LATE FRI THROUGH
SAT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRS MOVG ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LEADS TO
ONSHR WINDS. UPSHOT...AN UNSETTLED PRD XPCTD WITH SKIES VRBLY TO M
CLDY WITH PERIODIC PCPN CHCS. LOWEST POPS ACROSS ERN SHORE AND NRN
NECK AS DRYER AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM HIGH PRS TO THE NRTH. HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WEST AND SRN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRNT. MSTR INCRS FROM
THE WEST SAT ENHANCING PCPN CHCS ON ACROSS WRN CNTYS.

FRIDAYS TMP FCST A BIT TRICKY. ALL DEPENDS ON FRNTL LCTN AND PCPN.
HIGHS M-U70S CSTL AREAS...80-85 WEST OF BAY. LOWS FRI NITE 55-60.
HIGHS SAT L-M70S...XCPT 75-80 SRN MOST CNTYS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN ADDITION TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD
WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN H5 RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS OVER THEN EASTERN U.S. MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW MUCH SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO A LACK OF A TRIGGER TO GET ORGANIZED
TSTMS GOING...WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES TO THE 20-30% RANGE REACH DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MILD SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THEN 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TODAY AS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NRN VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. SW WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT THIS MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR TODAY...NOT AS BREEZY AS WEDS AFTERNOON WITH
W/SW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AS
THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM DUE TO LACK OF
COVERAGE...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE W/SW
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
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LATEST SFC OBS SHOW SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 15 KT. SEAS OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO RELAX BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS SE CANADA...BUT SPEEDS OF
25 TO 30 KT OBSERVED (KWAL SOUNDING) ABOUT 1K OFF THE SFC OF THE
WATER. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DIMINISH AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL AOB 3 FT. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY...BUT SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NRN COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 7AM FOR HIGH SEAS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK
TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SWD INTO NRN VA TODAY...CROSSING THE
WATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/NW TO N/NE
FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN SUB SCA. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. E/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM