Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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865 FXUS61 KAKQ 270714 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 314 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary over the area lifts back to the north this morning. A cold front approaches from the west tonight and crosses the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The current surface analysis indicates a sfc boundary extending from the central piedmont to SE VA. This boundary progressed NE-SW through the late aftn/early evening hours and has now become stationary. Cool and cloudy over the Nrn/NE zones (temperatures mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s), with readings in the mid 50s roughly along the I-64 corridor, and low/mid 60s S of the boundary across far s-central VA and interior NE NC. Fog has pushed onshore, and is thickest along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore with vsby of 1/2-1sm. Most guidance indicates the front begins to retreat to the NE by 06z, and then lifts N of the area after 08z. Therefore, expect fog to retreat/dissipate as well. Sct showers across the piedmont associated with a dampening shortwave trough should dissipate between 04-06z. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 40s across the Ern Shore to the low/mid 50s elsewhere. Mainly dry and partly cloudy conditions are expected across far SE VA and NE NC. Initial system lifts into/through New England Mon...leaving FA w/ continued mild/warm conditions as hi pres (sfc-aloft) remains invof SE CONUS coast. Genly mostly cloudy mon morning, becoming partly sunny by aftn. All zones will be back in the warm sector Mon, even the eastern shore so aside from locally cooler readings at the immediate coast, most areas will rise into the mid-upper 70s. Not much forcing for widespread precip, but will carry 20% PoPs for aftn showers/tstms inland given some instability by aftn. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level ridging begins to break down Mon night, as the front approaches from the W and will carry chc PoPs west of I-95 after midnight/20% or less E. Warm with lows mainly 55-60 F. Upper level trough pushes into the area Tue as a sfc cold front passes by late. Continued warm w/ highs well into the 70s to near 80F There will be a higher chance for showers and aftn tstms. Will continue with 40-50% PoPs most areas, with a small area of 60% PoPs across the N. There will be some potential for a few stronger storms Tue aftn/evening as speed and directional increases and sfc dew pts will be near 60 F, but overall not looking like widespread severe wx. Drying late Tue night with lows mainly 50-55 F, with mostly sunny conditions Wed, somewhat cooler but still a little above avg with highs 60-65 near the coast and in the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry wx expected for Wed night thru Thu, as high pressure builds down over the area to along the East coast. Decent chc for showers and possible tstms later Thu night into early Sat morning, as low pressure and another associated cold front approaches and moves acrs the region. Dry wx and high pressure returns for Sat aftn thru Sun. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thu, in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri, and in the 60s to near 70 Sat and Sun. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed night, in the lower to mid 40s Thu night, in the mid 40s to lower 50s Fri night, and in the 40s Sat night. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Continuing LIFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs expected at SBY through 12-14Z/27 before gradual improvement. Additionally...ISOLD SHRASslowly spreading E into the FA...though continue to decrease in coverage. Sfc boundary dissecting the FA NW-SE will be lifting N through this morning. Expecting mainly VFR conditions by midday/afternoon hours w/ low prob for SHRAS. Unsettled wx conditions will persist across the region into Tue night. SHRAS becoming increasingly likely during Tue...into Tue night. Periods of reduced aviation conditions will be possible during times of precipitation. Dry/VFR Wed as winds shift to the N.
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&& .MARINE... Low visibility in fog (<1 NM) continues to plague the northern coastal waters and the middle/upper Bay early this morning. Based on trends in the latest obs have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the middle Bay north of Windmill Pt thru 4 am. DFA for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island as been extended until 7 am as don`t expect conditions to improve before then. The frontal boundary draped across the Delmarva early this morning will eventually get pulled back north of the local area later this morning and will see improving conditions. Light E/NE winds across the north now will become S 5 to 15 kt by late this morning. Low pressure and its associated cold front will then track fm the cntrl/srn Plains ENE and acrs the local area Tue aftn into early Wed morning. Expect SW or S winds arnd 15 kt or less Mon thru Tue in advance of this system. Then, as the low and cold front move out to sea late Tue night thru Wed morning, winds will turn to the NW then N 15 kt or less. High pressure will build in fm the N for Wed night and Thu, with NE winds 15 kt or less...become E by late Thu. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-3 ft thru the period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-650- 652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...JDM

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