Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260621 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 221 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND LEFT MINS AS IS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S. NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY. KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75. MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST...W/ LGT SSE WNDS ATTM. WNDS LIGHT ENOUGH...AND RECENT RAINFALL PTNTLLY LEADING TO PTCHY FG (AND MVFR CONDS) NEXT FEW HRS (THROUGH AT SUNRISE). XPCG SCT-BKN CLDNS TDA...W/ LO PROB FOR ANY CONVECTION. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15 KT AND SCT-BKN CLDNS XPCD SUN AS A CDFNT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W. PTNTL FOR MVFR CONDS IN ANY SCT CONVECTION LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
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&& .MARINE... NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...TMG

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