Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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558 FXUS61 KAKQ 030159 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 959 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LATE THIS AFTN...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ENE OF THE AREA RESULTING IN WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS NOW COVERING THE CWA DUE TO SSW WINDS. TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SCTD TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT OVR SW VA...ERN TN...AND WRN AND CNTRL NC/SC. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ENE...AND WILL PUSH INTO OUR WRN/CNTRL COUNTIES THIS EVENG. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ASIDE FM ANY STRONG OR SVR TSTMS THIS EVENG...EXPECT INCREASING POPS TO CATEGORICAL (80%) OR LIKELY (60-70%) FM W AND N...TO THE SE...FM LATER THIS EVENG INTO TUE MORNG...AS LO PRES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACH AND PUSH INTO WNW COUNTIES. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ESE AND JUST OFF THE CST TUE THRU TUE NGT...WITH CAT OR LIKELY POPS TUE MORNG...GRADUALLY DECREASING FM NW TO SE. ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ANY SVR TSTMS ON TUE...AND MAINLY OVR SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE...COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THESE AREAS. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 60S TO THE UPR 70S. LOWS TUE NGT WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S TO NEAR 60. UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA WED THRU THU...DUE TO UPR AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS...ESPLY WED AFTN THRU THU...ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY WITH A ~40% CHC OF SHOWERS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH A 20% POP FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 02/12Z GFS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMPARED TO THE 02/12Z ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE PRECIP WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT MOST OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME TSTMS ARE STILL PSBL. TAF CIGS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MVFR/IFR CONDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING/AFTN IS PSBL BUT THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED OVER THE AREA AND MORE SHRAS ARE LIKELY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COTNINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NRN MID- ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK LOCALLY...WITH GENERALLY S TO SW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DROP SSW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SW FLOW OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE 3-4FT AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE WIND BECOMING NNE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS THERE IS A LACK OF CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINTAINING NE FLOW AOB 15KT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NW AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING. SEAS AVERAGE 3-4FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MAS/JEF MARINE...AJZ

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