Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020737 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 337 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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`S ARND 1.5 INCHES. NO FLOOD WATCH NEEDED ATTM. YES WE HAD A DECENT RAINFALL YSTRDY OVR MOST OF THE FA...BUT XPCT THE AXIS OF HVYST RAINFALL TO SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTRN AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRNT. THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE THE 2+ INCH AMTS ON MONDAY SO THEY PRBLY CAN HOLD MORE QPF THAN ACROSS THE NORTH. LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH AFTR TODAYS RAINFALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD FRONT PROGGED NR THE VA/NC BRDR BY 00Z AS THE SCND WAVE OF LOW PRS MOVES OUT INTO THE VACAPES. KEPT CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING THRU THE EVENING THEN LIKELY/CHC BUT DROPPED THUNDER AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S. NXT IN THE SERIES OF S/W`S RIDES ENE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WED AND WED NIGHT. HIGH PCPN CHCS CONT BUT WITH A LOW PRBLTY OF THUNDER. RTHR COOL WED DUE TO THE CLOUDS...PCPN AND NNE WIND. ANTHR WEDGE LIKE SCENARIO WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STUCK IN THE M-U60S... RANGING TO THE M-U70S ACROSS THE SERN PRTNS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 60S. NOT MUCH CHANGE THURS WITH YET ANTHR S/W KEEPING PLNTY OF MSTR ARND FOR CHC POPS. A BIT MORE INSTAB PROGGED FOR SOME AFTRN THUNDER. HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WET WEEK AHEAD WITH THE PTNTL FOR AN ADDNTL 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THE COAST RANGING TO 2-3 INCH QPF FCST WEST OF THE CHES BAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH NR NORMAL TEMPS. A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LO WILL APPROACH FM THE W ERLY IN THE PERIOD LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE (50%) OF SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD ONTO 30-40% POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS MODELS TEND TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THESE SYSTMS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE CUTOFF LO OPENS UP/WEAKENS...WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT CSTL LO DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE ABLE TO FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST 30% POPS SUN AND MON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO AVG IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EACH DAY...WITH LOWS RUNNING THRU THE 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AT KSBY AROUND 08Z. OTW...EXPECTING ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES. IFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY SET IN AT KRIC AND EXPECT IFR CONDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND THROUGH THE TAF SITES ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION ATTM IS CHALLENGING AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF 06Z TAF PERIOD. MFVR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BE PREVALENT AT KRIC AND KSBY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CIGS FOR NOW ELSEWHERE...BUT GOOD CHANGE CIGS DETERIORATE ALL TERMINALS BY TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...ONSHORE NE FLOW TUE NIGHT INTO THU AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODIC MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS NORTH/WEST OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS THRU MIDDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. THE FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WED MORNING. ATTM HAVE CAPPED WINDS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT (BAY) AND 25 KT (OCEAN) TONIGHT. SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED WED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS ON WED DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...BUT WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR THURS AND FRI...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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