Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201718 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 118 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region today and tonight, then slides off the coast Monday into Tuesday. The next cold front will impact the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest High res data suggests isltd pops are possible across interior sern VA / nern NC along a moisture boundary there (much like yesterday). So added this to the aftrn fcst. Otw, mstly sunny with highs in the mid-upper 80s at the coast to the upper 80s/lower 90s inland. PVS DSCN: Mostly clear tonight, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, patchy fog possible again after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The area of high pressure slides off the coast on Monday and the flow turns more to the S/SE, which will allow some additional moisture to return to the area. The orographic lift will allow some convection to form along the Blue Ridge and Appalachian mountains. Some of this convection could slide newd off the higher terrain and impact portions of the Piedmont counties and the nrn neck/ern shore later on Monday afternoon and evening so have continued the slight chance pops. But most areas should be dry due to a lack of lift and little mid level moisture. Temperatures should begin to climb with most areas getting back up into the lower 90s (85-90 F at the coast). Monday night into Tuesday will see mainly dry weather as well, but the humidity will increase slightly as the southerly flow strengthens. Lows during the overnight hours should be in the low to mid 70s and the highs on Tuesday should be a little warmer into the low 90s. The interior southeastern portion of the CWA would have the best chance for an isolated shower as some Atlantic moisture lifts newd into NE NC and the VA Tidewater, though PoPs will be 20% at most. Cold front will move into the region from NW to SE late Tue night through Wed. Enough lift and moisture convergence on Wed for at least high chc PoPs all zones, and have raised them to likely (60%) Wed aftn/evening over the south as the front looks to slow down with a wave of low pressure then tracking along the front. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs Wed mid 80s N to lower 90s S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front exits the coast by Thu morning. Lingering showers/storms possible far SE VA/NE NC on Thu, although they should taper off from NW to SE as the front moves farther southeast and away from the area. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds across the Midwest into the ern Great Lakes Thu- Sat with dry conditions anticipated during this timeframe. Highs Thu-Sat mainly upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Wed night mid- upper 60s NW to 70-74F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around 60F NW to around 70F SE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected most of the forecast period with only sct CU btwn 3-4K FT over the next svrl hrs. Concern once again tonight is for patchy fog development as the winds become SSE. Kept vsbys in the MVFR range for now between 06Z-12Z, but some guidance suggests lcl IFR vsbys psbl across inland areas. Any morning fog burns off around 12Z Monday with VFR conditions to follow. OUTLOOK... The next cold front approaches the region Wed. Sub-VFR conditions and showers/tstms will be possible Wed, and may linger across SE terminals into Thu morning.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines in the short term today thru Mon night. High pressure will build over the area today, then slides offshore and out to sea late tonight thru Tue. W winds 5 to 10 kt early this morning, will become NNE later this morning into this aftn, then E by this evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft, and Seas 2 ft. E or SE winds arnd 5 kt tonight, SE or S 5 to 10 kt Mon, then S 5 to 10 kt Mon night. Increasing S and SW winds Tue aftn into Tue night, as a cold front approaches fm the NW. Speeds could reach 15-20 kt Bay/ocean with seas building to 3-4 ft north and 2-3 ft south; waves building to 2-3 ft. SCA flags may be possible for the Ches Bay Tue night. The cold front will cross the area during Wed, and exit the coast by Thu morning. Winds N-NE aob 15 kt behind the front late Wed thru Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...ESS/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG

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