000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191216
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY...AND
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STUBBORN UPPER LOW
OVER WRN KY WITH A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED
FROM KY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...STATIONARY
FRONT/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER NRN NC. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN N CNTRL NC
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH
INTO THE REGION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...BUT A FEW SHALLOW
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE ERN SHORE...AIDED BY MID LEVEL
ENERGY/SHORTWAVE. RUC H7 OMEGA HANDLES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WELL...WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WAA AND CALM WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS HALF A MILE IN THE RICHMOND AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE DYING UPPER LOW
INTO A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING LATER THIS
MORNING. COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING OVER WRN
NC. PRECIP WATERS STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES (+1 STD DEV). EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN VA PIEDMONT BY MID
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF WRN KY AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT. SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH VA...COMBINING WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT WEAK.
HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...BUT GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS....MAINLY ACROSS SRN VA. S/SE
FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE ERN SHORE. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...SO THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER CLOUDY/WET DAY WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. COLDER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE MIDWEST. AT
THE SFC...WARM FRONT WILL LOCATE NORTH OF THE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WWD INTO
THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN AS S/SW FLOW ADVECTS DEEP MOIST FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING +1.5 STD DEV. WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT
EXPECT MOST FORCING AND RESULTANT CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG CAPE)...A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SHEAR. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO THE EAST OF THE
AXIS OVER CNTRL AND ERN VA.

TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE CNTRL CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND SUBTLE UVM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY (~1500 J/KG
CAPE AND ~-6 LIFTED INDEX) FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING
WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO
EXPECT NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY (UPPER 70S/LOW 80S) BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
850 TEMPS APPROACHING +1 STD DEV...WILL RESULT IN TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER TROF
DEEPING AT 500 MB TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BEFORE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL HAVE
GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NORTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK ON SATURDAY TO AT
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM ECG AND ORF N AND NW TO RIC
AND SBY. A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD DECK AT ECG AND ORF HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATION TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS OF 12Z. PERIODIC
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ORF THROUGH 15Z BUT TREND TAT
ORF WILL BE TOWARDS VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AT ORF
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM PHF TO RIC
AND SBY WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER. PHF SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT RIC AND SBY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 16Z.

MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPR TROF FROM THE TN VLY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE AT TERMINALS IN THE 12Z-00Z TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTM PSBL AT KSBY THROUGH 18Z...AND
AT KRIC AFTER 21Z.

REGION IN WARM SECTOR MON THROUGH WED WITH SCTD...MORE
DIURNAL...SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SPEEDS
BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE. WIND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTH ALL AREAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
THROUGH REGION. WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KT ON THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND...AND 10-20 KT ON THE OCEAN /HIGHEST N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT/. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3
DAYS...BEFORE WINDS BECOME SSWLY/SWLY IN THE TUE TIME FRAME.

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS FORECAST DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SEAS TO
INCREASE TO 5+ FEET. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN
PLACING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS IN 5-6 FOOT SEAS TODAY/TONIGHT.
ATTM...WILL HAVE SCA FOR THE NRN 2 CSTL ZONES FOR SEAS THROUGH 00Z
MON. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 5 FEET AT 44009 AND 44014...WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR 5 FOOT SEAS IN COASTAL WATERS AREA BEING IN THE
NRN COASTAL ZONES. SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET AFTER 00Z
MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RIDGES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACTION STAGE AND MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHICH BASINS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP WHICH IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AKQ 88D RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...