Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271935 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving cold front approaches the area from the west tonight. Low pressure developing along the front approaches from the south tonight into Thursday, with rain becoming more widespread and falling locally heavy at times tonight. A Flood Watch has been issued for southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina where upwards of two to three inches of rain is forecast. Drier air returns for late Thursday and Friday with breezy winds. Temperatures will warm into the weekend with more unsettled weather possible next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Rain becomes more widespread from west to east through the afternoon, reaching the coast late this afternoon into this evening. Period of heaviest rainfall along the coast will be this evening into the morning rush hour Thursday morning. 2. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. Rainfall totals forecast to reach 3 to 3.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Latest wx analysis reveals ~995mb low was centered near James Bay, ontario with broad troughing extending east of the Rockies. The ridging and surface high that had been in place over the local area have moved offshore, leaving us in deep- layered southwest flow aloft, which is funneling anomalously moist gulf moisture north across the eastern seaboard. All of this moisture is lifting NNE along and ahead of an advancing (but slow- moving) cold front, which extends southward from the parent low across the interior northeast into the eastern gulf coast. That front is just pushing into far western portions of VA/MD as of this writing, and will slowly approach our area through late tonight. An area of low pressure continues to lift across this front across the Carolinas this afternoon, and will lift slowly along the Carolina coast toward the VA Capes midday tomorrow afternoon. First round of showers slowing a bit, as overrunning moisture lifts across the northern mid-Atlantic into the northeast. Spotty showers continue over the next few hours and will eventually begin to expand in coverage farther to the east across Hampton Roads once again this evening, as the surface low slowly treks northward and nudges the pseudo warm- sector closer to the region. The front pushes into our far western sections tonight, with rain becoming increasingly heavy after 8-10p and through the overnight hours along and especially east of the front, as the low tracks slowly NNE across NE NC. DESI via the 12z HREF showing increased probabilities for rainfall rates 0.50-0.75" per hour after 09z/5a late tonight through the first half of the AM rush over much of the Flood Watch area. Localized ponding water and potential flooding concerns continue over these areas as a result.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain continues on Thursday with flooding issues possible. 2. Northwest winds become gusty on Friday. Thu: Heavy rain continues across the eastern half of the CWA to start the short term period. This will make for a messy morning commute over Hampton Roads and the eastern shore especially, with potential flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 8pm Thursday. Far western areas such as Louisa, Fluvanna, Prince Edward, etc will be post-frontal by mid-morning and should see the rain diminishing in coverage and intensity through the mid to late morning period, as the focus shifts toward the coastal plain. Secondary forecast concern will be the increasing NNW winds, owing to tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building to the west over the Ohio Valley and our deepening low offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast. QPF: Overall additional rainfall totals will range from 0.50-1.00 across the far west, 1-2" inches across the RIC metro/I-85 corridor up to the MD Eastern Shore, and 2.5-3.5" inches with locally higher amounts possible across southeast VA and northeast NC. Thu Night-Friday: The system will push offshore late Thursday afternoon into Thu evening, bringing rain chances to an end for the entire area. You can expect a gradually clearing sky Thu night into Friday morning. Partly cloudy and breezy on Friday, as the pressure gradient remains compressed between the departing system and high pressure building to the NNW. High temperatures Friday will be in the mid-upper 60s inland with coastal locations holding in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds subside Fri evening into Saturday, but between the well-mixed BL and increasing high clouds ahead of the next system, went toward the warmer end of the guidance envelope. Low temps mainly in the 40s, to near 50 SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Moderating trend with mainly dry weather and warming temperatures for Easter Weekend. 2. Rain chances increase Monday into Tuesday, before trending warmer and drier toward the middle of next week. Dampening ridging pushing east from the plains in the wake of our midweek system will combine to provide NW flow pattern aloft through the weekend. This portends a mainly dry period to start with increasing clouds as weak disturbances to pass through from time to time late Saturday into early next week. The first of these systems slides by to our north Saturday/Saturday night, bringing some increasing clouds across northern sections. Some lingering moisture may build up against the mountains ahead of a second disturbance moving out of the Ohio River valley on Easter Sunday. A shower or two may try to push into our far northwest CWA NW of Richmond, but for now kept the forecast dry for Easter Sunday. Models begin to differ on the overall driving force of our weather pattern to start the new work week. Both the 12z/27 GFS and ECMWF are showing a slightly better chance of spotty showers across the area Monday and Tuesday. However, the ECMWF lifts a warm front north of the area and drying the region out a bit quicker into Tuesday, while the GFS is a bit slower to do so. Given that the ECMWF solution clusters well with EPS and even the GEFS, have gone closer to the warmer/drier ECMWF solution toward midweek. Thicknesses steadily climb each day, allowing temperatures to gradually warm each day Fri-Sunday starting with mid 60s inland Friday, then jumping to near 70 degrees on Saturday, and low to mid 70s...to upper 70s possible southern sections on Easter Sunday. A weak front slides into the area on Monday, but lifting back north by midweek, allowing temperatures to warm back up toward the end of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday... Widespread IFR across area terminals to begin the 18z TAF period, with pockets of MVFR along the coast ahead of the steadier showers. Rain continues to become more widespread around the KRIC terminal this afternoon, could even get a few more rumbles of thunder as well. Rain becomes more steady along the coast this evening. Heaviest rainfall pushes over coastal terminals after ~00-02Z/8-10p dropping VIS down to ~2SM with RA/+RA and BR with CIGs of 200-300 ft AGL. This heavy rainfall will persist until Thursday afternoon (evening along the coast) with little improvements. Winds will generally be east/southeast AOB 10kt through the period. Outlook: Rain moves out and skies gradually improve Thursday night into Friday. Northerly winds will become a bit breezy on Thursday behind the system, with gusty northwest winds expected areawide on Friday. VFR conditions to start the weekend; a slight chance of rain may return on Sunday and into early next week. && .MARINE...
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As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday... Weak high pressure is noted over the Ches Bay leading to light winds across the N and easterly/onshore winds 10-15 kt over the S. Waves are 1-2 ft with 2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas offshore continue to slowly diminish and are running 4-6 ft, with the highest values across the southern zones where onshore flow is stronger. SCA headlines continue for the Atlantic coastal waters due to lingering seas. 12z guidance shows a more shallow track of low pressure Thursday night and early Friday which results in the strongest winds across the southern waters Thursday night with some increase expected farther north as the low pulls away Friday morning. NNW winds strengthen through the day tomorrow with 20-25 kt and gusts to 30-35 kt likely by early evening. Winds peak late Thursday night with gusts to 40 kt offshore. The consensus of the 12z guidance argues for upgrading the southern coastal waters to a Gale Warning with this forecast package. Will maintain Gale Watches for the remaining offshore zones as well as the mouth of the bay from Thursday afternoon into early Friday due to lower confidence and later timing of potential gale conditions. While seas from Cape Charles southward may briefly fall below SCA thresholds tonight, opted to extend the SCA headlines until the start of the Gale Warning as seas are expected to build once again during the day Thursday. For the offshore zones north of Cape Charles, SCAs currently end late tonight but these may need to be extended as well depending on buoy observations. Winds decrease quickly after sunrise on Friday with most areas falling below 20 kt by the afternoon. Seas will quickly diminish in the wester/offshore flow on Friday but will take some time to fall below 5 ft. The weekend into early next week will be much improved with high pressure dominating the local weather pattern.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday... Heavy rainfall will develop and persist across (mainly) the eastern half of area tonight through Thursday morning. A range of 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rain is expected, with the highest amounts across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, where a Flood Watch remains in effect. This could create some flooding issues, especially in urban areas and poor drainage spots on Thursday. Additionally, river forecasts are indicating levels may rise into minor flooding stage across portions of the Nottoway River, Meherrin River, and Cashie River Friday and into the weekend as a result of the heavy rainfall.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday... Tidal anomalies continue to linger around 2 ft despite ebb tides dominating at the mouth of the bay. Opted to upgrade the previous coastal flood statements to Coastal Flood Advisories for the tidal Potomac and bay side portions of the MD Eastern Shore as locally minor tidal flooding is forecast this afternoon/evening. The subsequent high tide cycle may also reach minor flood thresholds at Bishop`s Head but will hold of on extending the advisory with anomalies expect to continue falling off.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening for VAZ087>090-092-093-095>098-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>078-085-522. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for ANZ634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ656- 658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM/JKP LONG TERM...MAM/JKP AVIATION...MAM/JKP MARINE...AM HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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