000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240802
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. NOT EXPECTING
SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT
FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE LO TO MID 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA FRI MORNING USHERING IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING
DURING THE AFTN WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTING
OVER 20MPH. THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC
PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ANY PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURE ON FRI TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW TO MID 70S FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS NWRLY
CAA FLOW CONTINUES. CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S). THIS IS ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BLO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HV GONE CLOSE TO A ECMWF/HPC(WPC) BLEND WITH THIS PERIOD, WHICH
YIELDS ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. GFS HAS STARTED
TO CATCH ON TO ECMWF`S SLOWER SOLUTION WRT PROGRESS OF CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL
DAY AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE MISSOURI/LOWER OHIO VLYS.

BY MIDWEEK, THE FRONT SHUNTS NORTH OF THE AREA. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RESULTANT BERMUDA
HIGH/"SUMMERLIKE" SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS (AND
HUMIDITY VALUES) FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS (ERY/MID) MRNG PRIOR TO CDFNT
CROSSING THE RGN. WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS (3-6KFT) (AND WINDSHIFT TO
NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30 KT) XPCD POST CDFNT AND AS
MID/UPR LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE RGN TDA (LT MRNG THROUGH AFTN).
WINDSPEEDS SUBSIDE TNGT...THEN BECOME GUSTY AGN ON SAT (W/ VFR
CONDS CONTG). LESS WIND AND GENLY SKC SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDS GENLY BLO SCA ATTM. WNDS STARTING OFF WSW ERY/MID MRNG PRIOR
TO CDFNTL PASSAGE LTR THIS MRNG. WATCHING SFC PRES RISES (AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WNDS TO ABT 25 KT) FM WRN NY TO OH RVR VLY) AND
XPCD THAT TO ARRIVE W/ THE CDFNTL PASSAGE AFT 12-15Z/24. WINDSHIFT
TO NNW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) TO SOLID SCAS (20-30
KT). OCNL GUSTS TO/ABV GALE (35KT) PSBL ON THE OCN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY GALE WARNING FOR NOW THOUGH AS PROB RMNS LO. THESE CONDS TO
LAST THROUGH SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP BEFORE
MOVING NE ACRS ERN NEW ENG ON SUN. GFS/ECMWF RMN IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OFF NJ/SRN NEW ENG
TNGT INTO SAT. SLO/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN WTRS)
BY 2ND PART OF THE WKND.

WILL START ALL HEADLINES (SCAS) W/ NEW PACKAGE...AND CONT THROUGH
SAT AFTN/ERY SAT NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB