000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230528
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC
WHILE SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE CONTINUING IN THE
PIEDMONT.

MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS
EXPECTED. CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND
MID-LVL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT, AND WITH IT A GENERAL INCREMENTAL
RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THURS MORNING.

SAME AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...AM EXPECTING A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED THURS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN...BUT PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS 15Z. ISOLD T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURS AFTN.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT AND DEFINITELY SUN...AS HIGH PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEGUN AND
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS RAMPING UPWARD INTO SCA RANGE OVER SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND HOISTED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES) WITH THIS EVENING`S PACKAGE.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT/ERY FRI THROUGH FRI
AFTN...WITH A STRONG N-NW SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY)
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-SCA WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SAT AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JDM/MPR
MARINE...JDM/MAM