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648
FXUS61 KAKQ 090748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will slowly push through the region later today
through tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
region. An upper level trough will bring another round of
showers and storms later Friday into Friday night. A chance for
showers continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend.
Dry and warmer weather to start next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

A complex WX pattern in place for today, with the weakening
remnant of earlier convection over the Tn Valley now pushing
through central NC and over south central VA. Still dry across
the FA, but expect a few showers to move into the southern zones
over the next few hrs. There is no sfc-based CAPE over the local
area (an just very limited ML CAPE to ~250 J/Kg over the far
southern areas) so these will just be showers with embedded
tstms. Some gusty winds to ~40 mph will be possible over the
south this morning, but severe WX is not expected this morning.
Expect a few hrs w/ little to no precip late morning/early-mid
aftn, followed by PoPs ramping back up by later aftn.

While SPC has a Slight Risk for the entire CWA today, a
more southerly position of a developing sfc low/boundary this
aftn (in the vicinity of the I-64 corridor), lends to a lower
risk for SVR later today to the NE (especially the eastern shore
where aftn temps will barely be in the 70s (or cooler) with
little to no ML CAPE and no sfc- based instability. This sfc
boundary later today will likely act as a focus for re-
developing storm activity later this aftn into early this
evening, and may provide some localized enhanced directional
shear for an isolated spin-up tornado. The last few HRRR runs
show 0-3KM SRH values to ~300 m2/s2 by from about 20Z-00Z
across the I-64 corridor (give or take ~30 miles). The overall
instability appears to be less than what was expected yesterday,
but still should approach ML CAPE ~1000 J/Kg to the S of the
boundary, along with deep layer shear of 40-50kt so localized
damaging winds will be possible. High today will be in the
mid/upper 80s in NE NC, but only in the 70s over the N (with
readings falling into the 60s near the Atlantic coast of the ern
shore).

PoPs remain high chc to likely in the early evening, shifting
off to the NE overnight, and diminishing except across the far
NE after 06Z. Lows mid/upper 50s N to mid 60s S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

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Friday starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are
expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the
associated shortwave moves across VA and the Carolinas. There
will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool aloft
could set off some tstms, mainly across the southern 1/2 of the
CWA. At this time, severe wx is not expected. Highs on Fri will
be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s possible
far S). PoPs are highest over the SE (~50%) and lowest over the
far W. Drying out Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper 40s W
to the lower 50s E.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

There remains some uncertainty for the weekend, but overall the
model agreement is improved compared to yesterday`s 12Z runs.
The main weather maker will be yet another shortwave dropping
SE and pushing across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday.
This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low
chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading
through the region Sat night/early Sunday. The airmass will be
cooler and fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system
(unless the trough and shortwave were to push farther S than
any of the guidance currently shows). Will keep ~30% PoPs over
the N Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~10% in NC.
The models start to differ more on Sunday, with the
deterministic ECMWF the southern outlier regarding the track of
the upper trough. The NBM as well as the GFS and Canadian are
drier so will only keep PoPs around 20% through Sun aftn over
the north. It looks dry from late Sunday through midday Tuesday
with some low chc PoPs possible by later Tuesday as the next
upper trough approaches from the lower MS/TN Valley. Temps will
be near to slightly below normal Sat-Sun (highs upper 60s to
mid 70s), warming a bit by Mon-Tue (highs mid/upper 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...

Outside of any widely scattered showers or thunderstorms this
evening, VFR conditions are expected this evening through most
of tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday
morning and again Thursday evening into Thursday night. Any
showers/storms may produce brief periods of reduced VIS and
CIGs. Storms Thursday evening could be on the stronger side and
produce gusty winds.

Outlook: Drying out from W to E Thursday night, then VFR
Friday, but there will be a chance for showers/isolated tstms
redeveloping Friday afternoon and evening. Mainly dry Saturday,
but another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Wed...The main feature of note during the period will
be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening
through tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be 10-15 kt out
of the southwest until tomorrow afternoon when they start to
back to the east. Waves will be 1-3 ft through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

A combination of high astronomical and flood tides at the mouth
of the bay will lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal
flooding on tonight`s high tide cycle. Water levels along bay-
facing portions of the MD Eastern Shore will approach or exceed
minor flood thresholds tonight and a Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effort for these areas. Locations along and adjacent
to the tidal Potomac (Lewisetta/Windmill Pt) will approach but
fall short of minor flood thresholds. Therefore, a Coastal Flood
Statement has been issued for these areas late tonight. Elsewhere,
nuisance tidal flooding is possible but not expected to be
impactful enough for additional statements.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...