Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 140556
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather continues through late week. The next chance of
showers arrives Friday afternoon. Cooler weather returns early next
week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 935 PM EDT Wednesday...
Latest sfc analysis depicts high pressure centered over FL and
continuing to gradually move E. Temps are dropping off fairly
quickly this evening given the dry airmass, light winds, and
mostly clear skies. Latest obs show temps ranging through the
50s. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 40s.
Thu will be mostly sunny with some thin cirrus building in from
the W late. Well above normal temps expected with highs around
79-80F for most. The humidity will also remain low with min RH
values ~25% inland. Cirrus slowly begin to build across N
portions of the FA Thu night with lows in the 50s as warm air
advection ramps up.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast Fri with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clouds increase through the day
Fri with SW winds becoming breezy in the afternoon (10-15 mph with
gusts 20-25 mph). While the forecast is for partly to mostly cloudy
skies Fri, it will likely be mainly cirrus with sun still filtering
through for most of the day. A weak cold front crosses the area Fri
night with scattered showers (and isolated storms) possible ahead of
the front Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Don`t expect much in the
way of accumulation though with the GEFS and EPS showing <0.25"
(highest accumulation across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore).
As such, have kept PoPs chance instead of likely. Any showers move
offshore Fri night with lows in the upper 40s N to upper 50s S.
Clouds clear through the day Sat with highs in the lower 60s NE to
around 70F SW (most in the upper 60s) due to the lack of real cold
air advection behind the front. The front lifts back N late Sat into
Sat night with lows in the mid-upper 40s under partly clear
skies.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...
W/WSW winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph Sun with
party sunny skies early becoming increasingly cloudy late as cirrus
move in from the W. Given downsloping, expect Sun to be warmer than
Sat in the upper 60s N to mid 70s S (most in the lower 70s).
Additionally, can`t rule out an isolated shower across the S/SE Sun
afternoon/evening (15-30% PoPs) as a shortwave passes to the S. Low
pressure moves into Quebec Sun into Mon, bringing a seasonally
strong cold front through the area Mon. This will usher in cooler
temps Mon-Wed with the coolest day on Tue. Additionally, can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower Mon afternoon across the NE
with the shortwave.
Highs in the mid 50s N to lower 60s S Mon, upper 40s to lower 50s N
to mid 50s S Tue, and lower 50s NE to around 60F SW Wed. Lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s NW to the upper 40s SE Sun night with below
freezing temps possible across interior portions of the FA Mon and
Tue nights. Upper 20s are even possible for some locations. Still
chilly Wed night with lows in the lower 30s NW to the upper 30s to
around 40F SE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure is centered over the Southeast coast as of 06z.
VFR under a clear sky with a calm to very light southerly wind.
High pressure very slowly slides off the Southeast coast today
into tonight. VFR conditions will continue with a clear/sunny
sky outside of a few bands of cirrus. The wind is expected to
become SSW 5-10kt by this aftn.
VFR conditions and a light SSW wind are expected to continue
into Friday, with scattered showers (and perhaps isolated tstms)
developing later Friday aftn into Friday evening as a cold
front crosses the region. Breezier Friday aftn with a SW wind
increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Dry and VFR Saturday
through Monday, with a dry cold front crossing the region
Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...
Sfc high pressure was centered nrn FL this aftn with light winds, ~2
ft seas, and 1-2 ft waves.
Benign, sub-SCA conditions will prevail through Thu evening, as high
pressure will eventually slide well off the SE coast. S/SW/W winds
of 10 kt or less are expected during this time period. Increasing SW
winds are then expected ahead of a cold front going into the
weekend. At this time, the forecast shows SW winds increasing to 10-
20 kt late Thu night and Fri. A 3-6 hour period of low-end SCA gusts
is possible on the rivers/Currituck Sound and near the land/water
interface on the south/west side of the bay Fri aftn (when mixing
over land is maximized). Winds become W then NW or N Fri night into
Sat morning, with the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are
forecast to remain a few knots below SCA criteria...although there
is the potential for a brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 4-11 AM
Saturday on the bay. Sub-SCA conditions are expected later Sat
through the rest of the weekend.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AM/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI