Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140556 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 156 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather continues through late week. The next chance of showers arrives Friday afternoon. Cooler weather returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 935 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest sfc analysis depicts high pressure centered over FL and continuing to gradually move E. Temps are dropping off fairly quickly this evening given the dry airmass, light winds, and mostly clear skies. Latest obs show temps ranging through the 50s. Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 40s. Thu will be mostly sunny with some thin cirrus building in from the W late. Well above normal temps expected with highs around 79-80F for most. The humidity will also remain low with min RH values ~25% inland. Cirrus slowly begin to build across N portions of the FA Thu night with lows in the 50s as warm air advection ramps up. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast Fri with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clouds increase through the day Fri with SW winds becoming breezy in the afternoon (10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph). While the forecast is for partly to mostly cloudy skies Fri, it will likely be mainly cirrus with sun still filtering through for most of the day. A weak cold front crosses the area Fri night with scattered showers (and isolated storms) possible ahead of the front Fri afternoon into Fri evening. Don`t expect much in the way of accumulation though with the GEFS and EPS showing <0.25" (highest accumulation across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore). As such, have kept PoPs chance instead of likely. Any showers move offshore Fri night with lows in the upper 40s N to upper 50s S. Clouds clear through the day Sat with highs in the lower 60s NE to around 70F SW (most in the upper 60s) due to the lack of real cold air advection behind the front. The front lifts back N late Sat into Sat night with lows in the mid-upper 40s under partly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... W/WSW winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph Sun with party sunny skies early becoming increasingly cloudy late as cirrus move in from the W. Given downsloping, expect Sun to be warmer than Sat in the upper 60s N to mid 70s S (most in the lower 70s). Additionally, can`t rule out an isolated shower across the S/SE Sun afternoon/evening (15-30% PoPs) as a shortwave passes to the S. Low pressure moves into Quebec Sun into Mon, bringing a seasonally strong cold front through the area Mon. This will usher in cooler temps Mon-Wed with the coolest day on Tue. Additionally, can`t completely rule out an isolated shower Mon afternoon across the NE with the shortwave. Highs in the mid 50s N to lower 60s S Mon, upper 40s to lower 50s N to mid 50s S Tue, and lower 50s NE to around 60F SW Wed. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s NW to the upper 40s SE Sun night with below freezing temps possible across interior portions of the FA Mon and Tue nights. Upper 20s are even possible for some locations. Still chilly Wed night with lows in the lower 30s NW to the upper 30s to around 40F SE. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 155 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure is centered over the Southeast coast as of 06z. VFR under a clear sky with a calm to very light southerly wind. High pressure very slowly slides off the Southeast coast today into tonight. VFR conditions will continue with a clear/sunny sky outside of a few bands of cirrus. The wind is expected to become SSW 5-10kt by this aftn. VFR conditions and a light SSW wind are expected to continue into Friday, with scattered showers (and perhaps isolated tstms) developing later Friday aftn into Friday evening as a cold front crosses the region. Breezier Friday aftn with a SW wind increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Dry and VFR Saturday through Monday, with a dry cold front crossing the region Sunday night.
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&& .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... Sfc high pressure was centered nrn FL this aftn with light winds, ~2 ft seas, and 1-2 ft waves. Benign, sub-SCA conditions will prevail through Thu evening, as high pressure will eventually slide well off the SE coast. S/SW/W winds of 10 kt or less are expected during this time period. Increasing SW winds are then expected ahead of a cold front going into the weekend. At this time, the forecast shows SW winds increasing to 10- 20 kt late Thu night and Fri. A 3-6 hour period of low-end SCA gusts is possible on the rivers/Currituck Sound and near the land/water interface on the south/west side of the bay Fri aftn (when mixing over land is maximized). Winds become W then NW or N Fri night into Sat morning, with the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds are forecast to remain a few knots below SCA criteria...although there is the potential for a brief period of ~20 kt gusts between 4-11 AM Saturday on the bay. Sub-SCA conditions are expected later Sat through the rest of the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...AM/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...ERI

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