Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 290127 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 827 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. RIDGING ALOFT HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE PRECIP AWAY FROM THE AREA SO FAR TODAY...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NE NC NEAR 70. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THE SCENARIO COVERED VERY WELL. A GENERAL ONE-THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS TONIGHT...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND AROUND 50 NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. COLDER N/NNE FLOW ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY TEMPERATURE RISE...WITH MAX TEMPS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF MONDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND RAW CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR MONDAY EVENING...BUT MODEL TSECTIONS SUGGEST LOLVLS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH DRIZZLE. YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. NAM REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD SUGGEST A PREIOD OF SNOW FROM THE NRN NECK INTO THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP. WPC PREFERS THE WEAKER SOLUTION...AS DID PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE AS SHORTWARVE EXITS. MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOW 40S AS A RESULT. LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S MOST AREAS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 28/12Z GFS/ECMWF DEMONSTRATE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SW FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S...WITH MID/UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A STRONGER HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH KEEPS A WARM FRONT FARTHER S...WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS THE FRONT TO LIFT N THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURE...AS OVERALL SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN (ASIDE FROM A CHC OF SLEET ACROSS THE N FRIDAY NIGHT). DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NW BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST DETAILS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER DOES APPEAR TO BE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RAIN HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRL VA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ESE TO OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT MOVES INTO NE NC. CONDS ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION BUT SOME MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE FRNTL BNDRY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO LATE TUE. OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDS WITH RAIN ON TUE AS THE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER AND A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PCPN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA N-S THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW NNE SURGE. THE SURGE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT STILL ENOUGH WIND (~20KT) IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE/LOWER BAY. ADDITIONALLY...ENOUGH OF A NNE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SEAS TO ~5FT S OF CAPE CHARLES LATER MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE 28/12Z NAM IS STILL CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY LARGELY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WHICH FEATURED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC. THIS SUPPORTS THE WIND REMAINING NNE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7FT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE SRN OCEAN ZONES...WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. SEAS POTENTIALLY COULD BUILD TO 4-6FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SCA FOR THE SRN OCEAN ZONES WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 6PM TUESDAY. THE ONSET OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES WILL NOT LIKELY BEGIN UNTIL LATER 3RD PERIOD...SO WILL FORGO AN SCA AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING AND SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDING. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631- 632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SAM/WRS NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS SHORT TERM...SAM/WRS LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...JEF/LSA MARINE...AJZ EQUIPMENT...

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