Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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139 FXUS61 KAKQ 010723 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 323 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SOME EROSION OF THE PERSISTENT LO LVL WEDGE BEGINNING ACRS THE FA AS WNDS BECOMING MORE SE AND CIGS RISING. A RATHER WIDESPREAD OF RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH AREAS OF PIEDMONT MNLY W OF I95. TEMPS IN THE L-M50S. CONTD EROSION XPCD THROUGH THE MRNG HRS AS FCST BY THE RISING LI VALUES (THROUGH 18Z/01). LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS (60-100%) FOR AREAS MNLY NW OF A LINE FM AVC-RIC-WAL THIS MRNG...TAPERING TO 20-30% CHCS (SHRAS) IN FAR SE VA/NE NC. TRANSFORMATION FM STABLE CONDS TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTN AS WARMING OCCURS. WILL CONT W/ PSBL SCT SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE (ESP W OF THE BAY). HI TEMPS FM THE 60S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE M-U70S INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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KEEPING CHC-LIKELY POPS OVR THE FA TNGT...THOUGH TAPERING OFF AFT MDNGT. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVE...THEN WIDESPREAD STRATUS PSBL AFT MDNGT IN LGT SSW LO LVL FLO. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE L-M60S. MDLS SUGGESTING A BREAK IN PCPN AND EVEN WIDESPREAD CLDNS FOR MUCH OF MON AHEAD OF SLOLY MOVING CDFNT APPROACHING FM THE NW. BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AGN BY MON AFTN W/ VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS. FORCING RMNS VERY WK. HI TEMPS IN THE L-M80S...THOUGH 70S NR THE CST. UPR LVL LO PRES EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO THE MDATLC STATES BEGINNING MON EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE XPCD TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/TUE MRNG THEN EXIT BY TUE AFTN. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE AFTN. WILL HAVE A SEVERAL HR PD OF HI CHC (S)-LIKELY (CNTRL/N) POPS MON NGT/TUE MRNG THEN XPCG PCPN COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCT TUE AFTN. WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST SLGT CHC TSTM MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE ARND 60F NW TO THE M60S SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE U60S N TO M70S S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR TO BORDERLINE MFVR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME -RA MOVING ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. EXPECTING -RA TO IMPACT KRIC BETWEEN 08Z-10Z...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ALL SITES PRIOR TO OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WARM FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF RAIN BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AT KRIC AND KSBY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES (EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR KSBY) WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
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&& .MARINE...
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EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE BY LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTH 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AND WILL LET SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS EXPIRE AT 4 AM. CONTINUED S WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS...AND FOR THAT REASON PLAN TO HOIST ANOTHER SCA NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED THRU MIDDAY MON....WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR/MRD NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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