Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 262007 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain centered over the southeast United States through the end of the week. A weak frontal boundary will move south into the local area tonight, then lingers across the region through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... It`s been another hot and humid day across the area with high pressure centered over the Southeast. A weak frontal boundary remains situated just north of the local area but will slowly push south through the evening/overnight hours. Starting to get a little more organization with tstms this afternoon but storms are primarily pulse in nature with localized heavy rain. Weak perturbations in the flow aloft along with the weak boundary dropping south will allow for chances for tstms into the late evening (slight chc overnight). The threat of severe wx will be low (marginal risk) but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours will be possible in the strongest tstms. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the mid/upr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Westerly flow aloft will allow the aforementioned boundary to stall over the local area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure remains centered over the area through Friday. There will continue to be enough instability, moisture, and weak forcing to support scattered tstms Wed/Thu aftn/eve (30-40% PoPs) across the area. Again, the threat of severe wx will remain low given weak shear profiles but locally heavy rain is possible with PWs in excess of 2". Given the increased cloud cover Wed and slightly lower/cooler low-level thicknesses and H85 temps across the north/west, should be able to shrink the size of the Heat Advisory headline to SE VA and NE NC. (Similar headline may be necessary Thu). Highs reach the low to mid 90s under a partly sunny sky. Latest model data suggests the weak front lifts back north as a warm front Thurs night to near the mason-dixon line on Friday in response to a series of weak disturbances progged to track east along it. Lows Thu night in the mid/upr 70s. Data also shows a lingering sfc trough in lee of mountains. Given the available low level moisture, expect enough instability across the region to carry chc pops across the northern two-thirds of the area Fri aftn (slight chc far south). Warm and humid again with highs in the low to mid 90s (possible heat advisory SE areas). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No major changes to the going forecast for the extended. The westerlies generally remain north of the area through early next week with the frontal boundary remaining just north of the area or even over the region through the period. This frontal boundary will allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms through the entire forecast period...with slightly higher POPs Sunday into Sunday night as heights lower across the forecast area as a weak upper trough passes north of the region. Will go with a dry forecast on Tuesday as the GFS and ECMWF finally suggest the surface front may pass south of the area as the upper trough deepens over New England and the Mid-Atlantic. It will continue warm and humid through the extended with highs each day in the low-mid 90s with dew points still in the low-mid 70s. Probably not quite as warm as previous days...but still uncomfortable. Perhaps a little cooler and slightly drier on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Latest visible satellite imagery depicts cumulus developing across the local area, with seabreeze boundaries visible along the coast. Expect isolated to scattered convection to develop through mid afternoon, becoming more organized with better coverage late today into the evening. Due to the scattered nature of the storms, it will be difficult to nail down timing to put in TAFS. Best chances this afternoon will be along the seabreeze boundary for KORF and KPHF. High resolution guidance is trending toward late afternoon into the evening hours for KRIC. Lower chances KSBY and KECG. Main threats will be gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, expect a scattered to broken deck around 5k ft AGL. Surface winds generally at or below 10 knots. Outlook...Quasi-stationary boundary remains in the vicinity of the local area through the rest of the week...with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected each day through Saturday. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Generally quiet marine conditions expected through next week with a weak front remaining just north of the area and high pressure well offshore. Winds will generally stay less than 15 kt and seas over the coastal waters 2 ft or less. With the chances for storms each day...cannot rule out stronger winds in and near storms but otherwise quiet through the weekend and even into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No records have been set so far during the current heat spell. Records Tue (7/26) * RIC: 100 (1940) * ORF: 100 (1940) * SBY: 102 (1940) * ECG: 97 (1949)
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ079>082- 087>090-092-093-095>098-514-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MAS/SAM MARINE...MRD CLIMATE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.