Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271954 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 354 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A RETREATING TROUGH ALOFT HAS PRODUCED SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NW OF OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS KEPT THESE CELLS NEARLY STATIONARY SO FAR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO EVENTUALLY DRIFT SE INTO NORTHERN/NW PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF PCPN...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS AROUND 30-40% W/NW ZONES...LOWERING TO 20% ALONG THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR TSTMS THRU THIS EVENING DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. CHANCE OF PCPN DECREASES BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOST PLACES DRY OVERNIGHT BUT DID ALLOW ISOLD SHWR CHANCES. SKIES STILL PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSOLVES OVER SOUTHERN MD. NW FLOW DOES CONTINUE AND SO EXPECT ANY AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NW OF THE FA AND DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-40% POPS WEST...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. MAINLY DRY WED NIGHT AS PCPN WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET. LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY AND MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILDER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THURSDAY... UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30- 40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BEHIND THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THERE IS NO FOCUSING MECHANISM TO ORGANIZE ANY FORCING. FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM...AND WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS THAN MORE...BUT IN ALL CASES...SUSPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. SBY COULD SEE SOME FOG THOUGH AFTER GETTING NEARLY 1.5" OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE TRADITIONAL DAYTIME CU FORMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...
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WK SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST WITH WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE WINDS AVG 10- 15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GENLY BE A BIT LIGHTER TUE/WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. WAVES OVER THE BAY THRU MIDWEEK WILL AVG 1-2 FT...W/ 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SSW WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THU-FRI. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...ESS MARINE...LKB

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