Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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949 FXUS61 KAKQ 271531 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1131 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure will slowly move northwest from well east of the Florida coast toward the South Carolina coast Saturday and Sunday. The low will linger along the coastal Carolinas Sunday night into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Late morning analysis showing very little change in the pattern from yesterday at this time, high pressure at the surface and aloft remains centered off the Mid Atlc coast, with a warm airmass entrenched across the local area. Low pressure is clearly seen on satellite imagery near the Bahamas. For today, mainly sunny skies as of 15Z (except for a narrow area of BKN cloud cover in far SE VA). Should see some SCT cu development over the next few hrs for most of the interior of the CWA, with partly- mostly sunny skies during the rest of the aftn. The influence of the upper ridge should help to keep most of the aftn/evening shower/tstm activity west of the CWA along or just east of the Mtns. Will maintain just slight chc (20%) POPS for nw counties, POPS elsewhere at or below 10%. Highs today will be in the upper 80s/around 90 well inland/piedmont, to the upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mostly clear to partly cloudy tngt with Lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst to our south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence, so have maintained POPS at only 20% and confined to ne NC in the aftn. Otherwise, partly or mostly sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland/piedmont areas, and in the upper 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper moisture finally pushes nwrd into the cwa later Sat night into Sun morning, with PWATS rising to 1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast will determine sensible wx on Sun, but overall it looks like a warm and humid airmass will be in place and should be conducive to at least scattered showers and tstms. So, will continue with POPS to 40-60% most areas. When track becomes more certain, will potentially need to raise POPS even more, although the setup does not look like a complete washout. Rather, expecting periods of potentially moderate to heavy rain alternating with a variably cloudy sky and rain-free conditions. Highs on Sun generally in the upper 70s to lwr 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model guidance continues to support the development of this low by this weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hi pres sfc-aloft off the mid atlc cst will dominate the wx during the 12Z TAF pd. FEW-SCT hi based cu once agn xpcd...w/ isold-sct tstms psbl primarily W of the TAF sites lt this aftn or eve. SSW wnds rmn aob 15 kt. No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday. Chcs for shras/tstms increase for Sun through Tue as lo pres tracks NW to the SC cst. && .MARINE... Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns off the mid atlc cst into the wknd. A bit of a surge in speeds (avgg 15 kt) fm S direction ongoing and will cont into the early mrng hrs then wane tda. S-SW winds 5-15 kt will continue through midday Sat before winds become more ESE at similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3 ft thru Sat...waves 1-2 ft. Contg to monitor psbl low pressure development off the southeast coast this weekend...which may bring increased seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41". May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at Richmond. Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond 1. 9.13" 1889 2. 8.98" 1873 3. 8.87" 1972 4. 8.67" 1886 5. 8.59" 2003 6. 8.41" 2016 (to date) * Norfolk had their first 90 degree day Thursday. The other climate sites are still waiting for their first day. (Avg Date / Last Yr): * RIC: May 13 / May 12 * ORF: May 17 / May 12 * SBY: May 27 / Jun 1 && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through this morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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