Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 170034 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 834 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered north of the region tonight into Sunday. Hurricane Jose will lift northward off the Carolina and Mid Atlantic coasts Monday and Tuesday, and then depart to the northeast off the Southern New England coast Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Latest wx analysis features 1022mb high pressure is centered from the Ern Great Lakes across the interior Northeast this evening. Offshore, Hurricane Jose churns NW well off the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, a weak coastal trough/coastal front continues to produce showers offshore of the OBX this evening. High pressure will continue to prevail tonight as hurricane Jose turns nwd off the Southeast coast. Cu and isolated showers continues to erode this evening, leaving partly to mostly clear conditions for the late evening hours. Then expect some shallow fog to develop later this evening due to the combination of calm to very light wind, low- level moisture, and aforementioned clearing this evening. The best chc for fog is from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore. Farther SE, the coastal boundary will push toward the coast later tonight, with increasing clouds and some sct showers for coastal SE VA/NE NC by daybreak. Low temperatures will be in the mid/upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hurricane Jose is expected to turn nwd well off the Southeast coast Sunday. The presence of a coastal boundary will result in a 20-30% chc of showers for coastal SE VA/NE NE, well to the NW of Jose. Otherwise, partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the low 80s (mid/upper 70s at the immediate coast). Jose is expected to lift nwd off the Carolina Coast Sunday night into Monday roughly 200mi off of Cape Hatteras later Monday. 20-30% PoPs will continue along the coast Sunday night into Monday under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A NNE wind will increase Monday afternoon into Monday night with the current forecast showing speeds of 20-25 mph at the immediate coast with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Lows Sunday night range from the mid to upper 60s, followed by highs Monday in the upper 70s to around 80F. The deepest moisture nears the coast later Monday into Monday night, with only 20-40% PoPs near and along the coast. Mostly cloudy Monday night with lows in the 60s. Jose is progged to be ~250mi E of the VA capes by midday Tuesday and moving nwd. The low-level flow will gradually become NNW through the day with drier mid-level air overspreading the area. A 20-30% chc of showers will linger near the coast with decreasing clouds. High temperatures range from the upper 70s/around 80F over the Ern Shore, to the low to potentially mid 80s farther inland. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Medium range period characterized by building high pressure over the eastern CONUS behind Hurricane Jose, which will bring generally dry and near to just above normal conditions for the period. Highs in the latter half of the week will average in the mid 80s inland, upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Temps cool back to near normal late in the period as low-level onshore flow develops, as upper ridging strengthens to the north. Blended model consensus continues to show low rain chances during this period, so will linger PoP right around climo for the late week into next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure is centered from the Ern Great Lakes across the Northeast Conus this evening, with Hurricane Jose churning NW well off the Southeast coast. A few very isolated showers continue well NW of the SBY terminal, with another broken line of showers offshore of the OBX ahead of a coastal front. Overall, winds remain light out of the ENE at 5-8kt, as sfc high pressure remains centered N of the region overnight as Jose turns nwd. Aftn cu and any lingering showers to the north should dissipate over the next hour or two this evening, resulting in a mostly clear sky. This combined with calm to light flow and low- level moisture should result in some additional fog overnight. The best chc of IFR vsby will be at SBY/RIC/PHF, with a lesser chc at ECG/ORF where a ~5kt NE wind is expected to persist, with a chance of showers and MVFR cigs pushing into ORF/ECG early Sunday morning. Low stratus will mix out by mid to late morning, leaving mid-level clouds and some sct showers by aftn across ECG/ORF. Confidence in areal coverage remains low, and thus have gone no further than vicinity shower wording for now. Outlook: Jose will lift nwd well off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night through Tuesday with a 20-40% chc of showers closer to the coast. A persistent NE wind increases to 10-15kt along the coast Monday, and increases further to 15-25kt Monday night into Tuesday. Jose departs well to the NE off the srn New England coast Wednesday/Thursday as weak high pressure builds in from the W.
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&& .MARINE...
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Late this aftn, weak high pressure was centered over the ern Great Lakes, while Hurricane Jose was well off the SE coast. At this time, sub-sca conditions are expected over the Rivers, Ches Bay and Currituck Sound thru at least Sun. But, SCA for hazardous seas will remain in effect for all coastal waters thru at least Mon (for now), due to increasing swell and corresponding seas ahead of Jose. Based on the latest Jose fcst, NE and N winds will really ramp up to their strongest fm late Sun night into Tue aftn, before becoming NW and diminishing Tue evening/night. Expect seas to build from 3 to 4 ft this evening, to 7 to 10 ft thru Mon, then potentially build to 10 to 14 ft Mon night into Tue morning. While, waves in the Ches Bay will build to 4 to 7 ft late Sun night into Tue morning. Please follow the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center for details, as exact winds/waves/seas will be dependent on how close Jose makes it to the Mid Atlc coast. A track closer to the coast would bring higher winds than currently projected, while the consensus track from NHC remains far enough offshore that winds would generally peak in the 25-35 kt range. After collaboration with surrounding offices, have increased to high risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 11-13 sec periods and ~3-4 ft nearshore waves. The risk is expected to become high by later Sun, and remain high into the middle of next week, as seas and swell associated with Jose increase.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Continue to monitor the track of Jose, along with what is now a likely round of at least nuisance to minor tidal flooding late in the weekend into the middle of next week. ENE winds will increase late Sunday and Monday through Tuesday, as long period swells gradually increase. This will result in water piling up in the Bay and tidal rivers. The potential exists for minor to locally significant tidal flooding by Mon/Tue, continuing into Wednesday, as waters will already be a bit higher than normal given the upcoming new moon. As of now, elevated water levels could bring some nuisance-type very minor coastal flood impacts in typical spots as soon as tomorrow night through Monday night. Based on the present track of Jose, more widespread minor coastal flooding is possible around the time of high tide Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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