Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271957 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 257 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WK S/W ALOFT MOVES AWAY TO THE NE THIS EVE...RESULTING IN AN END TO THE SCT LGT SN INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTRW...SFC HI PRES (~1042MB) CONTS TO BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VLY...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE FA LT TNGT. XPCG PCLDY-VRB CLDS OVRNGT. LO LVL CAA WILL BE ONGOING BUT PDS OF CLDNS LIKELY TO PREVENT SHARP DROP IN TEMPS ACRS MOST OF THE FA. LO TEMPS FM THE UPR TEENS TO L20S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN ON SAT PROVIDING CONTD WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS. ANOTHER DAY OF PCLDY-VRB CLDS...GOING W/ HI TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO MAV GUID...MNLY FM 30 TO 35F. NR ZONAL FLO ALOFT FM SAT NGT THROUGH MON WILL BRING INCRSG CHCS FOR PCPN (AND GRADUALLY MILDER CONDS). HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN FM THE W ARRIVES RMNS UNCERTAIN (12Z/27 CONTS TO BE QUICKER THAN THE GFS). A FASTER ARRIVAL ON SUN (MRNG/MIDDAY) WOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED P-TYPE...ESP FM CNTRL VA TO LWR MD ERN SHORE. WILL TREND POPS UP SLGTLY FM W-E BY SUN AFTN...W/ HIGHEST POPS W OF I 95 (TO 30%). OTRW...WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLDNS OVR THE FA ON SUN WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY WARMUP. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE UPR TEENS TO M20S. HI SUN IN THE U30S FAR N TO M40S SE. SFC LO PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MON...W/ ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT PUSHING ACRS THE FA. WILL HAVE HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS SUN NGT INTO MON. THERE IS A VERY LO PROB ATTM FOR MIXED P-TYPE SUN EVE (N PORTION)...OTRW XPCG RA (AS PRIMARY P-TYPE) AND TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A BIT SUN NGT (THROUGH THE 30S/L40S SE). HOW QUICKLY CDFNT EXITS MON AFTN WILL DETERMINE ANY CLRG TAKING PLACE W-E. WILL HOLD ONTO 40-50% POPS ON MON ACRS MOST OF THE FA. HI TEMPS FM THE U40S TO M50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME 40-50% POPS ARE FORECAST NE...WITH 30-40% ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING MAINLY -RA AS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S SW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S N...TO LOW/MID 30S S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING AND BE DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO BE MILD AND MORE SPRING LIKE...WHILE COOL (BUT MORE SEASONAL/WITHIN -1 ST DEV) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL -RA AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK SHORTWAVE MOISTURE MOVING SW TO NE IS OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CIGS OF 2500 TO 4500 FT AGL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 460 CORRIDOR FROM KFVX TO KAKQ...SLOWLY DRIFTING SWD. AS THE MOISTURE DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CIGS TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND SPREADS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO WSW WINDS ALOFT. MAIN IMPACT FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KT CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COAST... ESPECIALLY AT KORF AND KECG. WINDS DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND THEN EXITING THE COAST ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... ANTHR ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. MODELS SHOW A CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT NOT ALL THAT STRNG. GIVEN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE BNDRY...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A MINIMAL SCA (15-20 KTS) FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT. SURGE A FEW HRS LATER OVR THE CURRITUCK SND (05Z-15Z). ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE SCA OVR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR SEAS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCRS TO JUST UNDER SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. RETURN S-SW FLOW DVLPS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT APPRCHG FROM THE NW. THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH WINDS BCMG NW TO N BEHIND IT. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 26TH: * RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB. * NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING): 2/28 3/1 ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH _______ _______ __________________________________________ RIC -1/1934 11/1937 10 MARCH 4 2009 ORF 17/1934 18/1980 14 MARCH 14 1888 SBY 13/1950 13/1980 1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911 ECG 14/1934 16/1937 16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943 RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY): 2/28 _______ RIC 28/1934 ORF 30/1934 SBY 29/1934 ECG 33/1934 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...BMD MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...AKQ

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