Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180821 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 321 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure traverses the area through tonight. The high slides offshore Saturday with a cold front approaching the region from the west late. The cold front moves across the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, producing scattered showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1022mb high pressure is centered over the Virginia and Carolina coastal plain this evening. Temperatures have dropped quickly into the 30s this evening with a clear sky and a calm to light wind. High pressure will gradually slide SE overnight. Clear through the early overnight hours with increasing high clouds late, especially N and W. Overnight lows should be achieved within the next few hours, then temperatures should become steady as high pressure slides offshore. Lows will mainly be around 30F to the low 30s inland (upper 20s for the interior MD Ern Shore) and mid/upper 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Turning milder again on Saturday due to return flow around the offshore high. Increasing pressure gradient due to advancing Midwest cold front will allow for breezy conditions/late morning into the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph (highest immediate coast and Eastern Shore). Compressional warming out ahead of the approaching cold front will drive maxima well into the 60s...to around 70 across SE VA/NE NC, with low to mid 60s across northern zones. Quick dewpoint surge with warm front lifting across the area Sat aftn/night. Low level S-SW flow quickly increasing PW values into the 1"-1.25" range after 00z/Sun. A brief window for showers coincident with narrow axis of low-level convergence/forcing ahead of the frontal passage late Sat evening (west) into early Sunday morning (east of I-95) will require likely PoPs (60-70%) most areas Sat night, mainly west of RIC metro before 4am, then reaching the coast before sunrise Sun morning. Convective parameters remain weak with the fropa, owing to the timing and the progressive nature of the system. Therefore, will keep thunder mention out of the forecast. Lows Saturday night from the mid 40s Piedmont to the mid 50s coast. Some concern for gusty winds with and in the immediate wake of the frontal passage. Gusts to 30-40 mph (higher possible MD counties and northern neck) possible late Sat night and Sunday morning. Cold front pushes offshore early Sunday. After some lingering clouds east (morning shower possible over coastal areas), subsidence behind the front should result in a mostly sunny sky. Winds diminish late afternoon as the gradient slackens. Cooler with highs in the 50s...to near 60 SE coast. Cool sfc high pressure centered over the TN Valley Sunday night will expand eastward into the mid-Atlantic on Monday. We can expect a clear sky and below normal temperatures. Lows Sunday night in the mid/upr 20s Piedmont to the mid/upr 30s coast. Highs Monday in the upr 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure moves offshore of the region during the day on Tuesday allowing for a warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows fall into the upper 30s to low 40s inland (mid to upper 40s at the coast). Temperatures remain near normal during the day on Wednesday before a mainly dry cold front crosses the area Wednesday late afternoon/evening. Introduced a slight chance of PoPs with the passage of the front, but moisture appears fairly limited at this time. A cooler airmass moves into the region for Thanksgiving and the end of the work week behind the front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for Thanksgiving Day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into the lower 30s away from the coast. An offshore trough develops on Friday which will bring a chance of rain for coastal areas. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the 06z TAF period. Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic coast will slide offshore through this afternoon. Clouds will gradually thicken/lower this afternoon and tonight as a strong cold front approaches the region through tonight. Winds will be gusty ahead of the front Saturday afternoon, gusting out of the southwest between 20-25kt. Outlook: The cold front crosses the area late tonight into Sunday morning, with the possibility of some short-lived MVFR ceilings with sct/numerous rain showers with the frontal passage. LLWS will be a concern tonight into Sunday morning just ahead of the front, 35-45kt at 2kft AGL. Winds quickly swing around to the W-NW post-frontal and will be highest within a few hours of frontal passage, but will remain gusty through Sunday. High pressure builds back over the local area Sunday morning, allowing for a return to VFR conditions through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure gradually slides off the Southeast coast Monday and Tuesday with VFR conditions prevailing.
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&& .MARINE... 1000 PM Update...Went ahead and made some tweaks to the headlines with this update, mainly adding a Small Craft Advisory to the coastal zones and upping the start time of the Small Craft Advisories in the rivers. Southwest winds and seas increase tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches the coastal waters, winds will occasionally gust up to 30 knots tomorrow afternoon. Bumped up the start time for the Advisories over the rivers as it is looking more likely that we see some gusts in excess of 20 knots tomorrow afternoon. Previous Discussion...Quick moving weather systems will lead to some rapidly changing conditions over the next 24-48 hrs. Sfc high moves offshore tonight shifting winds from the N aob 10 kt this evening to the SW after midnight. SCA`s for seas early this evening will end as seas subside to 2-4 ft. Pressure gradient quickly increases as a warm front pushes north across the region Sat. S-SW winds quickly ramp up into SCA levels by the afternoon with gusts to 30 kts over most areas. Data suggests offshore gusts to 35 kts possible across the coastal waters but not until after 00Z Sun. Even the "old" Boston technique suggests best mixing not until after fropa Sunday morning. Sharp pressure rises behind it will combine with strong CAA to produce widespread high end SCA`s to low end gales across the waters Sun. Issue with this forecast package is one of confidence given the NNW winds behind the front should be stronger than the SSW winds ahead of it. Thus, decided to go with a gale watch for the coastal waters Sat night into Sunday. Left strong SCA`s over the bay/sound and rivers for now. This way it gives later shifts the flexibility to upgrade to a warning or keep strong SCAs. Ended the headlines at end of 4th period per local policy, although SCA`s will likely be needed early Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Gusty sw winds may push a few areas into the action stage during Saturdays high tide cycle. Appears Bishops Head will approach minor flooding thresholds then. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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