Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 172330 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 630 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides offshore of the Southeast coast tonight into Saturday. A weak area of low pressure moves through the Carolinas Saturday night with high pressure returning by Sunday afternoon. A backdoor cold front pushes through the Eastern Shore Sunday night as high pressure builds well north of the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... GOES wv imagery and model analysis depict a nrn stream upper trough pushing off the New England coast as an upper ridge builds across the Great Lakes, with a srn stream trough over TX/LA. The surface pressure pattern is rather weak and generally characterized by high pressure from FL to off the Southeast coast. Sunny and dry this aftn with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s/around 50 over the Ern Shore to the upper 50s/low 60s west of the Bay. The nrn stream trough will continue to push farther offshore tonight as high pressure remains off the Southeast coast. Mostly clear tonight, although there could be some passing high clouds over NE portions of the area as some moisture streams through NW flow aloft. Temperatures should fall through the 40s during the evening, with overnight lows ranging from the low/mid 30s across most of the area to the upper 30s/low 40s for far se VA/coastal NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level ridging builds into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs rising into the upper 60s to low 70s (upper 50s/low 60s at the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore). Mid/high clouds increase Saturday aftn as a srn stream system pushes into the Tennessee Valley. The upper system dampens as it lifts into the central Appalachians Saturday night with the energy shifting off the Southeast coast. Trended PoPs downward to only ~20% across the Piedmont and central VA, and the Currituck Outer Banks. This system ambles offshore Sunday as weak high pressure builds in from the west. Above normal temperatures continue with decreasing clouds. Morning lows range from the mid 40s to around 50, followed by highs in the upper 60s to low 70s west of the Bay (again locally cooler at the coast). High pressure builds into the Ern Great Lakes Sunday night and pushes a backdoor cold front through the Ern Shore. This high (1030+ mb) will continue to build ewd Monday resulting in onshore flow along the coast, which will result in cooler (but still above normal) temperatures along the coast, while the Piedmont will remain mild. Lows Sunday night/Monday morning average in the low/mid 40s. Forecast highs range from the low/mid 50s for the Ern Shore, to the low/mid 60s in the I-95 corridor, to the upper 60s/near 70 over the Piedmont. Mostly clear/sunny Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will settle over the region Mon night through Tue and then slide off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tue night into Wed. After that, the area sits right smack in the middle of split flow with active systems passing well north and well south...and primarily westerly flow aloft. This is not a good set-up for active weather within the long term forecast periods. 12Z GFS now trying to depict one long, elongated trough passing through the region on Wed and bringing precip to the area. This is a new solution and does not seem to hold much merit to what should happen in reality. The 12Z ECMWF is also trying to bring weakening shortwave energy and light precip across the area as well. Leaned more towards a WPC solution regarding POPs and then dropped everything by 5 percent. This ends up keeping a slight chance for rain showers late Tue night into Wed. Will see how this pans out against new 18/1200Z data. Otherwise, expect a generally dry forecast with temperatures running anywhere from 10-20 degrees above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence that VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Mainly clear skies are expected to persist tonight with only the potential for a few higher clouds. Mid/high clouds will increase towards the end of the forecast period as an upper trough lifts into the Tennessee Valley. Winds generally remain light and variable tonight and increase to SW 5-10 knots during the day on Saturday. Outlook: An upper level trough will push into the central Appalachians Saturday night, with weak low pressure reorganizing off the Southeast coast. The primary forcing will split the area with only a 20% chance of spotty light rain. High pressure returns later Sunday which will allow for dry and VFR conditions to continue into early next week. A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday with only a minimal chance of light rain. rain. && .MARINE... Light and variable winds around 10kt or less the rest of today with seas of 2-3ft and waves 1-2ft. Sfc high pressure east of FL will result in winds becoming more sly this evening and increase to 10-15kt. Winds then become southwest overnight through Sat night with speeds remaining aob 15kt during this time. Seas will continue to average 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. A weakening upper level low passes south of the area Sat night into Sun as a very weak trough develops off the Carolina and Southeast coasts. Main impact to waters will be a wind shift to w-nw in this timeframe with speeds remaining aob 15kt. High pressure will then settle over the waters Mon through Tue and then slide off the Mid Atlantic Coast Tue night into Wed. Winds become more n-ne Mon through Tue...swinging around to the sw by Wed. Speeds continue to average aob 15kt, seas 2-3ft, and waves 1-2ft. && .CLIMATE... Very warm once again for the weekend, currently not expecting to set record highs but it may be close so for reference the record highs are listed below: * Site Sat 2/18 Sun 2/19 * RIC: 77 (2011) 78 (1961) * ORF: 77 (1937) 73 (1907) * SBY: 75 (1976) 72 (1961) * ECG: 80 (1976) 77 (1939) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJB/AJZ MARINE...BMD CLIMATE...

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