Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 220048
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
848 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
A cold front crosses the area this evening. Breezy northwest
winds will develop later tonight and continue through Saturday.
Otherwise, cool and more seasonable conditions will persist
tonight through next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure centered over the northern
Mid Atlc with an attendant cold frnt stretching down through the
fa. A narrow line of shwrs associated with the front is currently
pushing east through the area and will lead to only light
rainfall amounts. Behind this line, there is some uncertainty over
how much the radar will fill back in with some anafrontal pcpn.
For now have carried mainly chance pops behind the frnt with
likely pops over n/ne areas. Any additional rainfall amounts will
be light. Temps also drop sharply behind the frnt along with a
mstly cloudy sky. Temps tngt much cooler than previous
nights...with lows in the upr 40s to lwr 50s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry wx returns Sat with decreasing clouds and much cooler
conditions under strong caa...high temps only in the low-mid 60s.
Winds will be highest along the coast where sustained winds will
average 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. Farther inland, gusts
will average 25-30 mph. Winds then decrease Sat night into Sun as
sfc high pressure builds over the SE states, which also allows
temps to moderate back to more normal readings...highs in the upr
60s most areas.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A dry cold front crosses the area Mon shifting the winds back
to the NW in the afternoon. CAA lags so expect a mild day under
pt to mstly sunny skies. Highs in the upr 60s to lwr 70s. Cooler
Mon nite with lows in the 40s to near 50 se.
1030mb Canadian high pressure builds south across the area Tues
then slowly shifts east to a position off the New England coast
Wed. Continued dry but cool. Highs Tue 60-65. Lows Tue nite in
the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Wed in the low to mid 60s. Lows
Wed nite in the mid 40s to lwr 50s.
Low pressure tracks from the nations mid section Wed into the Gt
Lakes region Thurs. An assctd warm front progged to lift NNE across
the mts and into PA Thu. Best support for pcpn with this feature
remains north of the fa but ECMWF does show some weak lift as far
south as VA late Thurs / Thurs nite. GFS a bit slower spreading the
moisture east of mts. Kept low chc pops across northern half of fa
during this time frame. Highs Thurs 65-70. Lows Thurs nite in the
50s. Warm Fri with highs in the upr 60s to mid 70s.
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...A cold front extended from low pressure over the
Northeast States south across eastern Virginia to norther Florida. A
high pressure ridge extended from James Bay south across the middle
Mississippi Valley to central Texas. The cold front moves off the
coast late this evening with high pressure building in from the
Scattered showers were over the forecast area and will move off the
coast shortly after Midnight. Periods of showers and MVFR are in the
TAFs this evening with improving conditions during the early morning
hours. Gusty northwest winds can be expected during most of the TAF
period as the low pressure system over the Northeast States
intensifies. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots can be expected toward the
coast and at RIC during the day Saturday. Occasional gusts to 35
knots are likely at SBY on Saturday.
OUTLOOK...High pressure builds across the Southeast Saturday night
into Sunday. A dry cold front sweeps across the area Monday, with
high pressure returning Tuesday and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Strong cold front on track to cross the marine area late this aftrn
and evening. A quick wind shift to the NW and increase in speeds
this evening to SCA levels with the real CAA surge not expected to
arrive until after midnite into Sat morning. Current Gales/SCA`s
will begin with the afternoon package as conditions are expected to
develop within the next 12 hrs. Strongest gusts up to 40 KTS looks
to be across the northern coastal waters and middle Che Bay with
gusts to 35 KT across the south. Appears a secondary surge/increase
in mixing Sat evening is likely so went ahead and extended the
Gales/SCA`s into Sat night.
The offshore NW flow will keep seas from building to much higher
than 5-7 ft most areas (highest out 20 NM offshore). Bay waves build
to 4-5 ft. Winds remain elevated on Sunday but should diminish to
some extent and avg 15-20 KT. The next front crosses the area Mon.
Appears another surge (albeit much weaker) will likely require SCA
headlines late Monday or Monday night.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633-635>638.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634-654-
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.