Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180243 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 943 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will track northeast just off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening into early Thursday morning. The storm tracks east northeast out to sea Thursday while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure sliding from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the Southeast Coast will bring dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area Thursday night through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Updated forecast to allow warnings to expire for most of south central VA, will allow them to remain in effect acrs Greenville/Southampton/Sussex/Northampton NC. Also, extended advisories a few more hrs for areas to E/SE of metro RIC with no other changes to headlines. Latest analysis indicates a deepening ~1015mb sfc low off to the ESE of Cape Hatteras this evening with areas of snow now ending over NW portions of the CWA as drier air (dew pts into single digits) are filtering in. Farther S and SE, still have areas of light/moderate snow occurring across southern/eastern VA/ NE NC and the VA eastern shore. Models/water vapor imagery indicate the upper level low over western NC/far SW VA, with strong mid level vorticity/vorticity advection pushing into eastern NC. Based on the latest HRRR/RAP model trends, and anticipated upper level shortwave energy/vorticity advection and associated vertical motion transfer to the Mid Atlc coast this evening/tonight, have extended the ending times of warnings/advisories acrs the CWA. The highest snow totals have occurred over scntrl VA into interior NE NC and interior SE VA. Still monitoring far SE VA/NE NC but overall the snow rates/intensities have dropped off since 7pm so decided against upgrading to warnings. Additional snow amounts of 1-2" through around midnight will mainly be confined to NE NC and a few spots in far SE VA (though most locations in VA should expect an additional 1" or less). Expect gradual clearing fm WNW to E overnight into Thu morning. Cold with lows ranging fm the lower/mid teens W/NW to lower 20s SE. Driving conditions will still remain slick after pcpn ends and will be issuing an SPS when all other winter products end. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly Thu aftn with 850mb temps -2 to -4C at 12z warming to +4-6C by 21z. A cold start to the day, limited mixing, and mid-level WAA should result in rather stable lapse rates and surface high temps should only reach the upper 30s to arnd 40. High pressure will then slide from the Gulf Coast States eastward to off the SE Coast Thu night thru Sat, and bring dry weather and moderating temperatures to the area. Lows Thu night mainly in the lower to mid 20s. Highs on Fri will range fm the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri night will range fm the mid 20s to around 30. Highs on Sat will range thru the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Milder spell of wx through the extended forecast pd. Pattern evolving fits transition of MJO through phase 4 toward phase 5...leading to aoa normal temperatures. Other than a very wk upper level system tracking off SE CONUS coast Sun...sfc hi pres and upper level ridging will be dominant Sun into Mon. By late Mon...storm system expected to track into the wrn Great Lakes...w/ its trailing cold front approaching the mtns. That front will make progress across the local area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAs (though 12Z/17 ECMWF a tad slower than 12Z/17 GFS attm). Drying/clearing out and a bit cooler (returning to near seasonal levels) for Tue afternoon-Wed. Lows Sat night ranging through the 30s. Highs Sun in the l50s on the ern shore to 55-60F elsewhere. Lows Sun night mainly 35-40F. Highs Mon in the m50s on the ern shore to the u50s-l60s elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the u30s to l40s. Highs Tue in the l50s on the ern shore to the m-u50s elsewhere. Lows Tue night in the l-m30s. Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Drier air slowly filtering from the NW, with mainly VFR conditions now at KRIC/KSBY and pts NW. Still MVFR/IFR across SE VA/NE NC in snow and this will persist through 03-06Z, lingering the longest across the far SE. Winds will generally be N with gusts to 25 kt near the coast overnight. Skies gradually become SCT to SKC between 06-12Z, with breezy N to NW winds continuing. VFR/mainly clear for the remainder of the day with winds shifting to the W by aftn. Outlook: Predominant VFR conditions Thursday night through Sunday as the trough departs well to the NE and a ridge builds across the region. Next chance for showers (rain) and flight restrictions will arrive later Mon/Mon night. && .MARINE...
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Raised Gale Warnings for southern coastal wtrs and mouth of the Bay through Thu morning due to frequent gusts up near 35 kt anticipated overnight. Several stations along/near VA Beach coast already gusting to 30-35 kt. Previous Discussion... Sfc lo pres exits off the coast this eve...w/ continued low level CAA into Thursday (morning) before waning. NNW winds will average 15 to 25 kt...gusts to around 30 kts - esp near the lower Ches Bay and on the ocean waters. Will need to monitor for at least low end Gale gusts this eve-tonight as the lo pres system exits...esp on the lower ocean waters S of Cape Charles VA. SCAs have been raised to most of the ern VA rivers (through tonight)...otherwise no big changes to other SCA headlines attm. High pressure settles over the area for the end of the week...through the weekend allowing for diminishing winds and sub-SCA conditions.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NCZ013-014-030. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ012. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for NCZ015>017- 031-032-102. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for VAZ078-082>086-089-090-093-096-518-520-523>525. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ087- 088-092. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for VAZ095- 097>100. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ079>081-514. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ634-654. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>633- 638.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JEF MARINE...ALB/MAS

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