Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160843 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 343 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push across the region this morning, followed by high pressure returning tonight into Friday. A strong cold front will approach the area on Saturday...before pushing across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest weather analysis reveals ~998mb surface low pressure over Lake Huron/SE Ontario. The associated surface cold front extends SSW, and is pushing across the Appalachians attm. The front will cross the local area over the next few hours, with quick clearing from west to east from sunrise through mid-morning. Ahead of the front, ~1026mb surface high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada, and extends to the SW offshore of the New England coast. Regional radar mosaic showing a decaying line of showers pushing across the coastal plain, as a weak shortwave pushes offshore. Radar estimates indicate scattered rainfall amounts on the order of a few hundredths or less across the piedmont and north of RIC metro over to the MD eastern shore. Plenty of sunshine today with subsidence behind the shortwave and surface front on downslope W-NW flow. Post-frontal cold advection is initially on the weak side and as local thickness tools suggest, therefore expect temperatures to warm into the lower to middle 60s, upper 50s to near 60 along the immediate coast. However, winds do increase and remain breezy for the late morning and afternoon, and have accounted for gusts to 15-20 mph inland...20 to 30 mph over the MD eastern shore. Secondary cold front crosses late this afternoon into this evening, with temperatures dropping off quickly this evening into the overnight, as sfc high pressure builds in from the upper Midwest. Early morning lows from 30-35 inland and the lower MD eastern shore...to the low/mid 40s in SE VA-NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mostly sunny Friday as dry and cool surface high pressure builds overhead, sliding offshore Friday night and Saturday. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows Friday night in the mid/upr 30s inland to the low/mid 40s coast. Milder in return flow on Saturday. Compressional warming out ahead of next (stronger) cool front will drive maxima well into the 60s to around 70 across south central VA into SE VA, with low to mid 60s across northern zones. Brief window for pops coincident with frontal passage Sat evening (west) into late Saturday night (east of I-95). Clouds will gradually increase through the day, remaining partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Strong cold front pushes offshore on Sunday. After some lingering clouds (morning shower possible over coastal areas), subsidence behind the front likely at least resulting in partial clearing. Cooler with highs in the 50s to near 60 SE coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Maintained a dry forecast for the extended period with high pressure building over the eastern CONUS early next week. Highs temps in the 40s Mon increase to the 50s Tue and Wed. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few showers out ahead of a quick moving cold front early this morning. Ceilings are in MVFR to low-end VFR range out west, MVFR range along the coast. Front is expected to cross the area this morning, with Ceilings to quickly recover to primarily VFR conditions by around sunrise Thursday morning for a majority of the region, as high pressure returns to the area. W-NW flow on Thursday will be gusty at times from late morning into the afternoon with a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Thursday night through Saturday, before the next cold front approaches the region Saturday night. Sub-VFR ceilings and rain showers will be possible with the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday allowing for a return to VFR. Gusty winds will be possible behind the front on Sunday. && .MARINE... To be updated shortly... && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ635-636-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ654-656-658. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...AJB/MAM MARINE...BMD

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