Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171809 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 209 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR AND MORNING RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST OVER THE SE...BUT SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRAVERSING NC HAS COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS AOB 1 INCH)...SO NOT NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A BRIEF...LOCALIZED SHOWER. COOL/STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT THUNDER. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. WEAK WAVES WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER NC...COMBINING WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND...WITH THE NAM BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH INTO TIDEWATER. BASED ON UNFAVORABLE PLACEMENT IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND WAVES PASSING TO THE SOUTH...TEND TO THINK THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CUT BACK SKY COVER OVER CNTRL VA SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 4 TO 6 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S. OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY. WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN. SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND 2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER 18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. && .MARINE... NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...SAM SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...BMD/JDM

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