Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221214 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 814 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS. LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL (60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST). THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30% POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT. && .MARINE...
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LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638- 656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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