Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261950 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 350 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure axis moves offshore tonight as a weak cold front slowly drops into the region on Saturday. The front may stall near the Virginia-North Carolina border Sunday into Monday, as high pressure re-establishes itself north of this boundary. Warm and humid conditions will persist this weekend into most of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Scattered cumulus is prominent across the bulk of the region this aftn. The cumulus clouds are anticipated to lift to 12kft or above during the evening and overnight hours...with the exception of far SE VA and NE NC where scattered cumulus should linger through most of the night into Saturday. Warm and muggy tonight with lows in the 70s and dewpoints only a few degrees lower than temps. A weak cold front to the northwest (extending through cntrl PA to the Ohio Valley as of 25/1900Z) is now expected to slowly slide south into the region during Saturday and possibly stall along/south of the VA/NC border. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure reinforces itself over the area as a mid-level ridge anchors itself over the cntrl Appalachians. Expect dry weather with warm and muggy conditions persisting through the day. Highs in the lower 90s inland/mid- upper 80s beaches. Heat indices will struggle to reach 100 degrees as dewpoints range from the upper 60s nw to lower 70s se.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The boundary remains stalled near the VA/NC border on Sunday and is then expected to wash out on Monday. Mid-upper level high pressure maintains itself over the cntrl Appalachians as the sfc high to the north slides off the New England coast. Thunderstorms are possible each aftn across NE NC and possibly far SE VA as shortwaves ejecting from Tropical Storm Gaston move onshore. Exact placement of these waves is still uncertain, thus only carrying a 20-30% POP on these days. Little airmass change anticipated, therefore expect a continuation of dewpoints in the upper 60s nw to lower 70s se and high temps in the upper 80s to around 90F. Although it will still feel muggy outside, heat indices will stay close to ambient air temps in the lower 90s. Lows Sat/Sun nights around 70F inland/low-mid 70s beaches.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Medium range forecast period characterized by continued dry/warm conditions for much of the period, courtesy of persistent mid/upper level (Subtropical) ridge that becomes anchored over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. (Low) Rain chances slowly creep back into the forecast by the middle of next week. There remains good support amongst the deterministic models, and many of their respective member ensemble means, that the upper level ridge will remain in place through midweek, even as it dampens overhead Tue/Wed. Resultant low-level flow over the local area veers from E-NE Monday, to the W-NW Tue-Wed. Model differences ramp up significantly for the latter half of next week, and center mainly around the fate of tropical disturbance Invest 99L in the Northern/Central Caribbean. There remains support for tropical energy to push across the Bahamas and eventually the Florida Straits over the weekend, potentially reaching toward the ne Gulf coast and parts of the Deep South early next week. The operational 12z/25 GFS now is a bit closer to the latest 12z/ECMWF solution, albeit still weaker. Either way, there remains no strong support for widespread pcpn over the local area thru Wed. However, given the trends of continued breakdown of the upper ridge overhead and gradually increasing PW values, continued inclusion of a slight chc to low end chc (20-30%) for iso to sct showers/tstms is reasonable and has been maintained in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will remain highest over the southern third of the area. Temperatures should average at or above normal through the period. Forecast highs Monday through Wednesday range from the mid 80s at the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Early morning lows through the period average in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Sct cumulus prominent across the bulk of the region this aftn. The cumulus clouds are anticipated to lift to 12kft AGL or above during the evening and overnight hours...with the exception of KECG where sct cumulus should linger through most of the night into Saturday. A weak cold front to the northwest (extending through cntrl PA to the Ohio Valley as of 25/1900Z) is now expected to slide south into the region during Saturday and possibly stall along/south of the VA/NC border. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure reinforces itself over the area as a mid-level ridge anchors itself over the cntrl Appalachians. Conditions will generally be VFR through the weekend with aftn storms possible Sun/Mon across NE NC and possibly far SE VA as shortwaves ejecting from Tropical Storm Gaston move onshore. Exact placement of these waves is still uncertain, thus only carrying a 20-30% chance for storms on these days.
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&& .MARINE... Sub-sca conditions will continue through at least the next few days. S/SW flow continues this morning ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The front drops through the area tonight, with winds shifting to the N/NE behind the front. Expect 1-2 waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters. Onshore flow below 15 kt will continue for the duration of the weekend as high pressure builds north of the region. Tropical cyclone Gaston is expected to track to a position east of Bermuda by early next week. This should result in long period swell propagating toward the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-5ft, again highest out near 20nm. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD MARINE...TMG

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