Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220549 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... STRONG/COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1035 MB) CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENLY CALM (LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AT SOME COASTAL SITES IN SE VA/NE NC). MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 30S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL DROP ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT...WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE TYPICALLY COLDEST SPOTS TO AROUND 30 F AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 30S. THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S. LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS (OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI. GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S. HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS. CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY THIS AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.
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&& .MARINE... WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (MAINLY FOR SEAS)...WITH HEADLINES NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT. TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MAS/DAP/JEF MARINE...MPR

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