Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181459 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1059 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening frontal boundary laying across the North Carolina Outer Banks combined with an upper level trough over the region, will result in the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms today into this evening. High pressure gradually builds toward the Mid Atlantic for the middle and later portion of the week, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Update...No major changes planned to the fcst this morning. Will include isolated showers/storms throughout the area this afternoon with diurnal and sea breeze thunderstorms expected. The various CAMS guidance (including the HRRR) suggest the best chance will be closer to the Bay, as well as north/west of Richmond (similar to yesterday). Otherwise, a little warmer than yesterday across the interior with temps in the lower 90s. Plenty of clouds across NC to keep temps only in the low-mid 80s there. Early this morning, a weakening frontal boundary was laying acrs the NC Outer Banks, while an upper level trough was moving into extrm wrn VA and NC. The combination of the upper level trough moving ESE over the area, and the frontal boundary sliding farther ESE of the Outer Banks, will maintain slgt chc to chc Pops for showers and tstms over much of the area into this evening. Warm and humid with highs ranging fm the mid 80s to lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper trough axis passes over the region tonight through Wed, then settles off the SE coast as a closed upper low by late Thu. A little warmer temps combined with the passage of the upper trough, could again trigger isolated to sctd showers and tstms, esply Wed aftn/evening. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values between 95 and 100 degrees. Upper high pressure will build twd the nrn Mid Atlc region during Thu. Except for isolated sea breeze induced showers or tstms Thu aftn/evening, expect hot and humid conditions with highs in the mid 90s most places. Heat index values will range between 98 and 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Bermuda High settles over the central Atlantic the rest of this week as very persistent troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard. Mid Atlantic Region remains well ensconced in a warm sector throughout the long term forecast. Expect periods of unsettled weather with showers/storms developing each aftn/evening...especially invof lee trough axis which persists through at least Sunday. Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions continue with dewpoints in the upper 60s NW to around 75F SE. Meanwhile, high temps will be in the mid-upper 90s Fri/Sat (possibly pushing 100 degrees in cntrl VA on Friday) and low-mid 90s Sunday. Lows in the 70s each night. The combination of heat and humidity will support widespread heat indices in the 100-105 range with 105-109 possible SE for Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect mainly VFR conditions at the TAF sites today into Wed morning, except for isolated IFR cigs in the early morning at SBY. Isolated to sctd showers or tstms possible later this morning into early this evening, esply at ECG where will have VCSH where best chc for pcpn is fcst. OUTLOOK...Isolated to sctd pcpn possible Wed aftn/evening due to passage of upper trough. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions Thu into the weekend, as high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlc region. && .MARINE... Trough sfc-aloft to gradually weaken through Wed...then hi pres rebuilds over the waters by the end of the week. Prevailing winds will remain SSW through the period...mainly aob 15 kt...though some increase in speeds late each day into the overnight hours. Seas 2-3ft. Waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG/MRD SHORT TERM...TMG/MRD LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB

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