Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241935 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the north bringing drier conditions today into early next week. Unsettled weather returns by mid-late week with additional rain likely.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Quiet wx areawide this afternoon. High pressure continues to build over Quebec, extending S/SE into the Great Lakes region. Pressure gradient remains compressed, especially across SE parts of the FA. This is allowing for gusty N/NNE winds to continue along the coast and could still see some 30-35 mph gusts over the next few hrs. Also seeing some stratocumulus streaming off the ocean in NE NC. These should dissipate near or just after sunset. Temps are in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs will likely top off a few degrees higher in the next couple hrs. High pressure builds further down into the region tonight. This will allow winds to turn noticeably lighter inland. Still remaining breezy along the coast, however. Main focus for tonight is how far into NE NC freezing temps get (where the growing season has begun). Still seeing some discrepancies in the guidance w/ the deterministic models higher than the statistical aids. Either way, think the 32 F isotherm penetrates into at least Northampton (NC) and wrn Hertford county. Headline-wise, have continued the freeze warning for Northampton and extended it into Hertford. Have a frost advisory for Bertie and Gates county where temps dip to ~33 F, though it is questionable how much frost will be able to form with winds remaining light (but not calm). Further N/NW, lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Along the bay and ocean, winds keep temps in the upper 30s-low 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... On Monday, sfc low pressure meanders near Bermuda with a co-located upper low. Well to our W, vigorous sfc low ejects from the lee of Rockies into the Midwest states. The local area remains in between these features with high pressure holding on. Remaining mostly sunny with some increase in high clouds late across the W. Highs will be warmer as 850 mb temps and upper heights build across the ern CONUS. Current fcst has temps around 60 W of the Chesapeake Bay with mid- upper 50s near the coast where onshore flow continues. Overnight lows will still be chilly, but not as cold, with upper 30s-low 40s E to low-mid 30s inland. Expecting an increase in low clouds late along the coast as the offshore low advects a maritime air mass towards the area. The CONUS low moves further NE into Tuesday, eventually occluding over the upper Midwest. Associated cold front extends S to the Gulf Coast (where tstms are likely). This cold front slowly moves E later Tue into early Wed. Moisture return initially is limited as the upper feature becomes well displaced to our N. Therefore, expecting most of the area to stay dry through Tuesday night. High temps Tue in the mid-upper 50s E to the low-mid 60s well inland. Skies will be mostly cloudy along the coast w/ partly sunny conditions inland. Lows Tue night in the low-mid 40s. The front becomes ill-defined in the midweek period as the upper flow becomes parallel to the front. Models continue to show some light QPF as the front basically stalls over the FA. Have PoPs slowly increasing from W to E Wed morning through Wed afternoon. Current rainfall forecast for this initial wave Wed is generally up to 0.50" across the W/SW with only a tenth or so elsewhere. Highs Wed could show a lot of variation across the FA as rain is more likely W of I-95. Highs across the SE could reach the upper 60s while 50s linger across the W/NW. Lows in the 40s to around 50.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... More widespread rainfall is expected Thursday as a potent srn stream disturbance induces low pressure formation along the prior frontal boundary (just off the Carolina coast). This scenario would push another batch of moderate-locally heavy rainfall N into the area. PoPs continue to increase from the NBM and have introduced a wide swath of categorical PoPs across the ern half of the area for Thursday morning and afternoon. Despite run-to-run variability in the deterministic guidance, there remains a robust QPF signal in the GEFS, GEPS (Canadian), and EPS. The GEFS remains more N than the EPS, painting the highest totals across central VA (vs across nrn/NE NC in the EPS). Still, they both show increased probabilities of 1- 2"+ of rain. Given the area just saw 1-3" of rain, any additional rainfall in the amount of inches could lead to some hydrological issues. Because of this, WPC has a large marginal risk ERO across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic later Wed into Thu (with them mentioning a potential upgrade to slight somewhere once confidence increases). It also could become quite breezy yet again along the coast, though this is heavily dependent on the strength of the low. Thursday will also be cooler with the rain. The low departs offshore Friday with high pressure building in from the SW. Therefore, quiet wx is expected heading into the holiday weekend. Blended/ensemble guidance favors increasing temperatures for Fri and Sat with 60s and 70s possible, respectively. Overnight lows generally remain above freezing through the extended period.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday... Prevailing VFR expected at all sites through the period. Will need to watch some low streamer clouds (w/ 2500 ft CIGs) moving off the ocean in NE NC, but current thinking is this stays just SE of ECG. Otherwise, NNE winds remain elevated through the rest of today (10-20 G25-30 kt). Winds diminish some tonight but remain gusty at ORF. N winds 10-20 kt expected Mon under a mainly clear sky. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Mon night. However, onshore flow and potential cloudiness (w/ lower CIGs) will be possible Mon night through most of Tue. Additional rain chances will then be possible late Tue night into Thu night, with degraded flight conditions possible. && .MARINE...
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As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... A strong area of surface high pressure centered just south of Hudson`s Bay continues to push southward along the eastern seaboard through the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile an area of low pressure continues to develop along the trailing cold that moved through the area on Saturday. This area of low pressure is forecast to deep significantly over the next few days about halfway between the US coast and Bermuda. This will set the stage for a strong persistent NE flow between the two weather systems from today through midweek, before another frontal system arrives on Wednesday. With the persistent NE flow of 20 - 25 kt over the coastal waters and 15 to 20 kts over the Bay, expect significant waves of 8 - 12 ft to continue to push toward the coast. This will lead to high surf along the coast. So with this forecast update have adjusted headlines to drop Gales for all but the southern two coastal zones as winds are coming down below Gale levels but should persist for all put the rivers above SCA levels. This should linger through Monday afternoon and perhaps into Monday night before the winds begin to weaken as the next front approaches from the west and the area of High pressure continues to slide eastward into the Canadian Maritimes allowing the pressure gradient to relax. But the seas will remain up for a much longer period so have already adjusted the northern coastal waters SCA through early Tuesday morning and they will likely need to be extended further. The next front arrives on Wednesday but stalls over the area at the upper level jet lifts through the Great Lakes into the Northeastern US. This will briefly allow the winds to relax, but another wave of low pressure is expected to form along the front and lift into the Mid-Atlantic States, providing at least SCA winds and possibly a brief period of gales.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... A blow out tide (up to 1 ft below normal) will occur along the Ches Bay side of the lower MD Eastern shore during low tide later this morning. Otherwise, water levels will begin to slowly increase over the next 48 hrs as high pressure to our north interacts with broad low pressure well offshore to cause a prolonged period of onshore (E-NE) flow and elevated seas nearshore. This combination of increased winds and elevated seas will not allow water to flow out of the mouth of the Ches Bay as efficiently and over time this water will start to back up into the middle and upper Bay. So, not only will some minor to moderate coastal flooding be possible along the Atlantic coast from Ocean City, MD to Currituck, NC starting today, but minor to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible up the Ches Bay to Cambridge and Bishops Head, MD starting Monday night and then continuing for all of the local waters through Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Locations across the lower Ches Bay, the lower James River, and the southern coastal waters from VA Beach to the northern OBX will have the best chance of reaching moderate coastal flooding thresholds. Due to tidal anomalies already increasing rapidly this morning from about Lynnhaven around to VA Beach and south to Currituck (given the strong NE winds and building waves/seas), have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory starting with this morning`s high tide cycle and continuing through this evening`s high tide cycle. Additionally, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for Norfolk/Portsmouth (namely from Sewells Pt to Money Pt) due to water levels coming close to minor flood thresholds with this morning`s high tide cycle. If tidal anomalies continue to trend as expected, then coastal flood advisories will be necessary for these same areas for this evening`s high tide cycle and beyond. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ102. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ012-013. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ014-030. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for VAZ098. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...ESS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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