Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 191905 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend southward from Canada into the southern Appalachians through the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track north well offshore of the Delmarva through Wednesday, then meanders off the southern New England coast Thursday through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Jose is situated ~250 miles offshore this afternoon. The latest satellite trends indicate Jose is starting to take more of a jog to the northeast, which follows along with NHC`s latest track which takes Jose north then northeast well off the Delmarva through tonight. Widespread showers are currently ongoing across far eastern VA and and lower MD and hi-res guidance indicates these will continue thru 7pm or so before dissipating. With Jose moving away tonight, expect to see drier air sweep eastward overnight with mainly clear to partly cloudy conditions (probably mostly cloudy until daybreak lower MD eastern shore). Will have chance to likely PoPs (30-70%) thru 7pm then 20-40% PoPs along the immediate coast until midnight. Lows tonight in the low/mid 60s...to around 70 at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure over the region along with subsidence in the wake of departing Jose results in a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day Wed. Latest data suggests enough moisture for sct convection to develop over the mts after 18Z, but generally dissipating as it tries to move east. Will carry slight chc pops over the eastern Piedmont (~20%) in the afternoon as some hi-res guidance indicates potential for an isold shwr/tstm. H85 temps btwn 15-16C along with ample sunshine results in highs reaching the mid-upr 80s to around 90 west of the Bay, lwr 80s along the immediate coast. Mstly clr and warm Wed night. Lows 65-70. Mostly sunny and warm Thurs and Friday as the high dominates. Highs in the mid/upr 80s, except upr 70s to low 80s beaches.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hi pres sfc-aloft builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS from Fri night into early next week as remnant lo pres (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of New England. Other than possible periods of SC off the ocean (by the late in the weekend-early next week) - esp at the coast...expecting dry /above normal conditions. Extended models have a little better at consensus wrt tropical systems into early next week. Tropical cyclone Maria expected to move to (well?) E of the SE CONUS coast by Sun-Mon. Monitor forecasts from NHC on Maria through the weekend. Highs Sat-Sun in the l80s at the coast...m-u80s elsewhere...then in the u70s-m80s Mon-Tue. Lows in the l-m60s inland to the u60s-around 70F at the coast. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Widespread -SHRA currently ongoing across far eastern VA and lower MD with MVFR CIGS of 2-3k ft. Improving conditions expected along the coast by 00z evening. Decreasing clouds west to east after 00Z as Jose slowly pulls NE and away from the area. Last region to clear will be KSBY by around 06z tonight. N-NW winds 20-25kt with gusts to 35 kt along the coast now will diminish after 00z. Outlook: Jose continues to drift NE to a position off the srn New England coast Wed and Thu. High pressure builds in behind the system for dry wx.
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&& .MARINE... Tropical storm warnings continue as planned for all coastal waters as winds continue at 25-35 kt sustained with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas currently avg to 8-11 ft nearshore and 12-16 ft out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay avg 3-5 ft except to 5-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay. Have replaced the Gale Warning for Currituck sound with a Small Craft Advisory (though 10 pm), and have extended the Gale Warning for the mouth of the Bay through 4 pm given current obs still depicting frequent gusts to 35 kt. Other SCA headlines remain as is for the rest of the Bay and Rivers for mainly 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt through the aftn, slowly diminishing to 15-20 kt this evening. Marine conditions then improve later tonight into Wed as Jose pushes well off to the NE and weak high pressure builds in from the NW. Sub- SCA conditions prevail Wed into Thu (except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on the coastal waters Wed). Seas are expected to start to once again ramp up Fri into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria begin to affect the region. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Will continue coastal flood advisories for all zones adjacent to the ocean and for much of the area along Ches Bay and the James/York/Rappahannock Rivers. Did this for the next 2 high tide cycles into early Wednesday morning, but may need to be extended into the following high tide cycle daytime Wednesday. Seeing potential for some moderate tidal flooding for the ocean side of the eastern shore with the next high tide and may upgrade to a coastal flood warning there w/ aftn re-issuance of the CFW. High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters today due to 12-14 sec periods and the large nearshore waves. The risk is expected to remain high again on Wed. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075-077- 078-084>086-089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ095>097- 523>525. Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...LKB/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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