Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221726 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1226 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast today as a backdoor cold front drops south into the area. The front lifts back north as a warm front Friday. Another cold front will move through the area Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Midday MSAS and vsby sat pict shows the backdoor cold front has made very little progress south over the past few hrs as the winds at OFP just turned north. 12Z sndgs show this bndry very shallow and more like a bndry layer wind shift than a true frnt. Meanwhile, a differential heating bndry is setting up to the south as the dytme heating kicks in. This will likely keep the bndry from dropping to far south this aftrn. Models show this feature will likely not apprch the VA/Nc border until after sunset. Not much on radar either, so adjusted the wx grids to say "light rain" with stdy or slowly falling temps north. Bcmg pt sunny south with temps 75-80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cooler tonight with continued light rain/drizzle/fog across the north due to a moist onshore flow. Lows low-mid 40s north, upr 40s- lwr 50s south. Kept chc showers over northern areas Fri as the front slips back north as a warm front. Highs in the lwr 50s north to upr 60s-lwr 70s far south. Boundary lifts north leaving the local area in the warm sector Fri night along with chcs for more fog. Lows mid-upr 40s ern shore to mid-upr 50s south. Warm again Sat with chc for shwrs especially over NW areas. Highs mid 60s ern shore to the mid- upr 70s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday continues to look like a mild yet wet day with the surface cyclone staying over the Great Lakes with the surface cold front moving into the area Sunday afternoon. Best chances for rain will be north of I-64 where the better forcing and moisture will be located. However, the front will be slow to move through the area given that it will become nearly parallel to the upper flow aloft. Canadian high pressure builds in for early next week so it is possible that a lingering shower may persist across NC on Monday, it will most likely be dry Monday-Tuesday. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday, allowing return S-SW flow to develop. An approaching front Wed afternoon may allow for showers later in the afternoon into Wed night, but timing is still uncertain and have opted to keep out of the forecast. Sunday will be another warm day with S-SW flow ahead of the strong warm front. However, clouds and showers will likely keep temps in the upper 60s/lower 70s despite the +12C 850mb temps. Temps closer to normal Monday-Wednesday, but mostly sunny skies expected as the high pressure builds overhead. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The backdoor cold front will slowly sag south to near the VA/NC border this eve then stall across nrn NC tonight before lifting north as a warm front Fri. Stratus stubborn to scour out south of the front attm but do expect MVFR/VFR CIGS across sern Taf sites next svrl hrs ahead of the fropa. To the north at RIC/SBY MVFR CIGS lwr to IFR by 00Z along with some fog/drizzle for the rest of the forecast period. IFR conditions expected at all Taf sites later tonight through Fri morn along with patchy drizzle and fog. Outlook: The front moves north of the area Fri night with the offshore ridge dominating Sat into Sun. The next front will cross the area Sunday night, with another period of CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during this period.
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&& .MARINE... Backdoor cold front to slowly push south through the waters later today into tonight. SW winds averaging 10 kt will shift to the E and then NNE behind the front. Sub-SCA conditions to prevail for the most part but does appear to be enough of a cold air push over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island tonight/Fri morning to raise SCA headlines there for NE winds of 15-25 kt and seas building to 4- 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds will genly be 10-15 kt with 3-4 ft seas and waves in the Bay tonight to 2-3 ft. A brief period of gusts to 20-25 kt possible in the Bay but looks to be too short of a duration to raise any headlines. For Fri/Fri night, the front slowly lifts back N, gradually shifting winds back to the SE and then the SW. Front then mainly N of the region Sat into Sun, although it may stall in the vicinity of the northern coastal waters. SW winds to avg 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt, especially on Sunday. Cold front to cross the area Sun night/Mon with little cold air push so headlines do not appear likely at this time unless a significant wave of low pressure develops along the front Mon. && .CLIMATE... Record highs and record high mins were set at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City Wed 2/21. At Norfolk, the record high was tied and the record high min was set. See RER products for details. For today 2/22, record highs and record high mins will be possible and these values are listed below. **Please note, record high mins like record highs are calendar date values so the the records are not complete this morning (temperature needs to stay up through midnight tonight). * Date: Today/Thu 2/22 * Site: Record High...Record High Min * RIC: 73 (1985) 52 (1913) * ORF: 77 (1937) 55 (1878) * SBY: 70 (1997) 50 (1996) * ECG: 77 (2003) 56 (1997) Very warm temperatures will continue through the weekend, record highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25. * Record highs * Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25 * RIC: 82 (1985) 83 (1930) * ORF: 82 (2012) 81 (2017) * SBY: 77 (2012) 80 (1930) * ECG: 79 (1985) 78 (2017) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR LONG TERM...AJB/MRD AVIATION...AJB/MAS MARINE...LKB CLIMATE...

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