Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260609 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 109 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... FORECAST UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PCPN THIS EVENG BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DEWPTS BEING MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT DEWPT OBS. OTWS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK HI PRES PROVIDING A QUIET DAY UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. LATE THIS AFTN...TEMPS RANGED FM THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. WINTER RETURNS TO THE REGION TNGT INTO THU...AS YET ANOTHER SRN STREAM LO PRES AREA BRINGS SNOW...SLEET...POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN. LO TRACKS FM THE GULF OF MEXICO NE AND OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST TNGT INTO THU AFTN WHILE INTENSIFYING. STILL A VERY CHALLENGING FCST...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER N THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE AREA WHERE HIGHER SNOW AMTS MAY OCCUR SHIFTING FARTHER N AND W INTO AKQ CWA...AS ALL MODELS INDICATE WARMER 850 MB AIR (0 TO 2 C) PUNCHING INTO AT LEAST NE NC BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THU. THUS...MUCH OF NE NC...ESPLY COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SND OR THE CST...WILL LIKELY HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN FOR THE EVENT...CAUSING LWR SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE CUT DOWN IN NE NC INTO EXTRM SE VA IF DRY SLOT DEPICTED IN LATEST MODELS PANS OUT. BUT...FOR NOW...HAVE STILL ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL NE NC COUNTIES EXCEPT INLAND AND OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK. WILL HAVE A WINTER WX ADVSY FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. HIGHEST SNOW AMTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE OVR NORTHAMPTON...HERTFORD...AND GATES COUNTIES. AS FOR VA/MD COUNTIES...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FLUVANNA AND LOUISA.. THESE TWO COUNTIES WILL HAVE A WINTER WX ADVSY. LATEST BLEND OF THE MODELS INDICATES BEST FRONTGENETIC FORCING/850 MB TEMP -2 TO -5 C LOCATION AREA...NOW SETS UP OVR SCNTRL VA/INLAND NE NC...ENE ACRS THE PENINSULA/MIDDLE PENINSULA...AND INTO THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHR. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT SNOW AMTS RANGING FM 3 TO AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVR THIS WARNING AREA...AS QPF AMTS WILL RANGE FM 0.20-0.25" IN THE FAR NW...TO NEAR .80" OVR EXTRM SE VA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND THUS EVENTUALLY WHERE THE AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS AREA COULD SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NW. STAY TUNED. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL BETWEEN 11 PM TNGT AND 8 AM THU MORNG. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S LATE TNGT INTO THU MORNG. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR LATE THU MORNG THRU THU AFTN. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... BRISK NNE WINDS PERSISTS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AS 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VLY TOWARDS THE AREA. NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN W-SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING A GENERAL MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND COOL PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POP CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM N TO S ON SATURDAY AS HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER FOR FRI/EARLY SAT, FRESH SNOWFALL AND ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A ~1040MB HIGH SITUATED OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH WAA ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO UPPER 40S S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AT THIS TIME 30-40% POPS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE -RA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BEGIN AS -SN OR IP SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NE...TO THE MID 50S SW...ALTHOUGH WARMER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER. 12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30-35 RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 40S N...TO NEAR 50 S. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATER WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MAINLY -RA IS EXPECTED...WITH A POSSIBLE MIX AT THE ONSET OVER NW PORTIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR SBY WHERE IT WILL START WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VSBYS AND CIGS QUICKLY DROP INTO IFR RANGE ALONG WITH FZFG AS TMPS DROP AOB FREEZING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SERN COAST TONIGHT QUICKLY MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF SLEET THEN RAIN FIRST AT ECG THEN ORF LATER TONIGHT THEN PHF AROUND 12Z. EXPECT SBY AND RIC TO STAY ALL SNOW THRU THE EVENT. WILL WATCH A DRY SLOT CURRETLY PUNCHING NE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ACROSS SERN TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. OTW...PCPN TAPERS OFF W-E BTWN 15-18Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFFSHORE. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE / FZ DRIZZLE AT THE VERY END AS MID-LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN WITH A CHANGE OVER ACROSS SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A NORTH WIND...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLRG AFTR 18Z. THUS...KEPT A 1-2K FT SC DECK AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE END OF FCST PERIOD DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WEDGE SCENARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS ARND THROUGH A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE AT KECG ASOS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE RACES NE OVERNIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION IMMEDIATELY OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS BECOMING NE 5-10KT TONIGHT...AND QUICKLY INCREASE AND BECOME NNE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE TO 20-25KT ACROSS THE BAY AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF THE RIVERS...WITH 25-30KT N OF CAPE CHARLES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF 30-35KT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY (BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z) DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF CAPE CHARLES (INCLUDING THE SOUND). GIVEN THIS A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED REPLACING THE SCA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN AS IS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NE. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN ZONES...WITH 7-10FT S OF CAPE CHARLES AND HIGHEST OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...WITH 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS N OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW- LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST AND THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE SUB-SCA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS TIME-PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW MONDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 33.0 F (-9.4 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND TH COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: * RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0" * NORFOLK: 5.9" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8". && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>016-030>032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ017-102. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060>098. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099- 100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-049. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...AKQ

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