Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241951 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will pass through the region tonight and into early tomorrow morning. The front will stall south of the region across the Carolinas through the middle of the week. High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday before moving moving offshore Wednesday. The next cold front passes through the region on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Scattered cumulus have formed across the region this afternoon and are expected to dissipate around sunset. A slight chance of showers or thunderstorms will remain possible across primarily northern portions of the region through the first half of the night. Slightly cooler and a bit more comfortable overnight with lows near 70 to low 70s in the piedmont and low to mid 70s elsewhere. For Tuesday...The cold front stalls south of the region which will allow for the continued chance for showers and thunderstorms across far southern VA and northeast NC. Elsewhere, dry conditions and mostly sunny skies are anticipated as high pressure influences the weather pattern. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s across the north to near 90 south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short term period starts off Tue night with just a lingering small chance of rain over far SE areas during the evening hours with the lingering frontal bndry sliding south of the area as high pres builds over the NE states. Expect NE flow under a partly cloudy sky with low temps mainly in the upr 60s/lwr 70s. Mainly dry wx then for Tue with just a slight chance of an aftn shra/tstm as sfc hi pres slides off the NE coast. High temps in the mid 80s. Slight chance PoPs again for Thu ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front. Return of sly flow will allow for high temps near 90F.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The preference in the long term is to lean toward the ECMWF solution. This favors a slower cold fropa on Friday, followed by dry wx prevailing this weekend into the first of next week as the front dissipates to our south and a broad trough develops over the eastern CONUS. Have solid chc PoPs (40-50%) on Friday with the fropa. Limited chc PoPs (30-40%) to southern areas on Saturday, then dry all areas next Sunday/Monday. Max temps through the long term will generally be in the 80s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Expecting primarily VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. All of the shower activity from this morning has dissipated and moved offshore of the region. There remains a very slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon, but models have continued to trend drier. A weak cold front crosses the region late tonight and into tomorrow morning shifting winds to the W/NW for Tuesday. Outlook: There will the continued chance for showers and thunderstorms across south central VA and NC on Tuesday, but VFR conditions should dominate through this period. A weak cold front pushes into the area for the mid week period.
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&& .MARINE...
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SW winds 5-15 kt, except 15-20 kt off the NC OBX currently ongoing across the marine area. Seas 2-3 ft; waves 1-2 ft. A cold front to the NW slowly approaches through the evening then sags south through the marine area overnight into Tues morning. SSW winds 10-15kt expected ahead of the front this evening, then as the front passes overnight, expect winds to veer around to the N/NW Tues morning at 10-15 kt, but taking until 8-10am to do so off the NC OBX. This surge should stay below SCA levels Tues morning, but some gusts to 20 kt may occur for a short time over the middle Ches Bay. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft perhaps briefly up to 3 ft early Tues. Behind the front, winds are expected to become onshore Tues aftn into Wednesday, then become SSE again on Thursday. Seas 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft. The next frontal boundary is expected Friday. SW winds 10-15 kt become N/NW again Friday night/Saturday.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJB MARINE...JDM

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