Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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716 FXUS61 KAKQ 262037 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 437 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of upper level troughs will be crossing the region this weekend...resulting in a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front from the west will cross the local area Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Sfc hi pres will remain invof SE CONUS through tonight. Remaining breezy through early this evening (gusts to 20-30 mph) then winds wane overnight. SCT-BKN CU across the FA this afternoon expected to dissipate this evening...leaving mainly SKC for the rest of the night. Lows in the m50s-around 60F inland to the l60s near the coast in VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW through Sat morning. Models in decent consensus w/ the arrival of weak S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA (by after 20Z/27). SPC has outlooked wrn/central areas of FA in a SLGT risk...w/ remaining areas in a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show ML cape values of 1000-1500 J/KG, w/ 30-40 kt of effective shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Main threats will be large hail and localized damaging winds. Partly-mostly sunny Sat morning...then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs from the m-u70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the m-u80s inland. Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. A weak sfc boundary settles just S of the area (by Sun morning). Another S/W aloft expected to arrive late Sun...which again combined w/ daytime heating likely results in (at least) SCT convective development. Not as warm Sun due to VRB clouds-becoming mostly cloudy conditions. Lows Sat night mainly ranging through the 60s. Highs Sun in the u60s-m70s at the coast to the m-u70s inland. Will continue to highlight possible strong to severe tstms in HWO for the weekend. A break in the chances for SHRAs/tstms after Sun evening...into Mon morning. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then continue to the E Mon afternoon. Expecting additional SHRAs/tstms to accompany that frontal passage...mainly Mon afternoon/evening. Otherwise...partly- mostly cloudy Sun night-Mon. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Highs Mon mainly in the l-m80s (except 70s at the beaches). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A frontal boundary will push south of the area Tue morning, with weak high pressure providing mainly dry wx for Tue aftn thru Wed. More unsettled wx with chcs for showers or tstms then expected Wed night thru Fri, as a frontal boundary will linger over the region or acrs the Carolinas. Highs will mainly range fm the upper 70s to mid 80s thru the period, with lows ranging fm the upper 50s to the upper 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period. Gusty W winds to 20-25 kt will diminish this evening. Sct showers and storms return for Saturday afternoon into early next week as the pattern remains somewhat unsettled. && .MARINE...
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No headlines in the short term tonight thru Sun. Low pressure just off the New England coast late this aftn, will move east into the nrn Atlc tonight. Then, weak low pressure will move east acrs the OH valley late tonight, then slides ESE thru the CWA and off the coast Sat aftn into Sat night. Weak high pressure will build by to the north and off the coast late Sat night into Sun aftn. Then, a warm front followed by a cold front will affect the area Sun night into Tue morning. Wind speeds will be 15 kt or less tonight into Tue, with waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft. But, sctd aftn/evening tstms will pose a threat to mariners this weekend.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ALB MARINE...TMG

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