Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 112026 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 426 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... ***NWS SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMS BOTH AN EF-0 TORNADO AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN VIRGINIA BEACH*** (SEE PNSAKQ FOR DETAILS) ***NWS CONFIRMS STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IN THE CAPRON AREA AND ACROSS SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY*** LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH BECOMING WASHED OUT OFF THE NC COAST. ALOFT...WV SATELLITE REVEALS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE PUSHING E OF THE MTNS BUT WITH ONLY A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS THE LOCAL THUS FAR. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP THROUGH SUNSET MOST AREAS...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE 60S SO HAVE THIS INTO THE GRIDS AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND TO 65-70 F NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL LOOKING LIKE A NICE WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER NE NC AND WITH LIGHT FLOW COULD SEE A SEABREEZE INDUCED ISOLATED STORM IN THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC DIURNAL POPS ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC. OTW...PT TO MSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER AS H85 TEMPS RISE A BIT. HIGHS LWR-MID 80S AT THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F ALONG/WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MAINLY DRY SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F. NEXT S/W PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NE STATES SUN WITH A SFC THERMAL TROF PROGGED EAST OF THE MTS DURING THE AFTN. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT LOOKS TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE MOST PART SO WILL ONLY CARRY 20-30% POS AT MOST FOR AFTN TSTMS WELL INALND AND OVER THE NORTH...KEEPING IT DRY ACRS SE VA/NE NC. HIGHS U80S-L90S EXCEPT M80S AT THE BEACHES. FLOW TURNS TO THE SSW IN EARNEST ON MON...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HEAT RETURNING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR SCTD AFTN TSTMS ALL AREAS EXCEPT NC OUTER BANKS WHERE A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED. HIGHS 90-95 F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WET CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SEASONABLY WARM AS MUCH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE LOCKED WEST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AS AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS...HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WITH A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE (MODEL DERIVED PRECIP WATERS ~ 2+ INCHES)...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON ALONG A SHARPENING LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH/BOUNDARIES...CLOSEST TO THE BEST INSTABILITY. HIGHS TUE EXPECTED IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE NEAR 70. STRONG SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUES...EJECTING THE LOW NEWD INTO SE CANADA. THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE CLOSED LOW...BUT HEIGHT FALLS AND PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS MODELS DEPICT MARGINAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE > 2000 J/KG. ANOMALOUS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT THE ERN PORTION LIKELY STALLING OVER/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS WEDS ACROSS THE SE AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS. BUT...WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE MID ATLANTIC SLIDES OFFSHORE TNGT AS A FRNTAL BNDRY DROPS S OF THE AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRNT...MOIST CONDS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS TNGT...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY 2-4K FT CLOUDS BREAK. THIS MAY BE LESS LIKELY AT ORF AND RIC. INCLUDED MVFR CONDS FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE SOME IFR AS WELL. DRY WX CONTINUES INTO SAT AND SUN WITH THE HI OFFSHORE AND LO PRES WELL NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. NEXT FRNT COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE REGION MON AND TUE. && .MARINE... 10KT NE/E WINDS TODAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE AKQ MARINE WATERS. MEANWHILE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...SLIDING OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 18-20 KT. SLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS TUES-TUES NIGHT. PERSISTENT SLY FLOW MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5-6 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POST FRONT BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS TO THE NE. THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...SAM/DAP AVIATION...MAS MARINE...DAP

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