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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
332 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Breezy west-southwest winds continue today. A warming trend
starts Sunday as persists into next week with higher pressure
settling south and then southeast of the area. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon along a weak
frontal boundary.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

984 mb occluded low pressure continues to spin over the Great Lakes
and eastern Ontario/western Quebec vicinity. Secondary cold front
that crossed the area late yesterday is now offshore. Aloft, the
axis of a deep layer trough extends from the nrn Mid-Atlantic into
the Carolinas. The trough departs offshore later today with upper
heights rebuilding across the region. As the low will be slow to
move away, the remnant pressure gradient, combined with deep BL
mixing, will keep gusty WSW winds across the entire CWA today. Winds
will be at their highest late this morning into the early afternoon.
Gusts of 30-35 mph will be common, but cannot rule out a few gusts
to near 40 mph. This falls shy of wind advisory criteria. See
the fire wx section below for info regarding this potential.
Otherwise, any clouds across N/NE portions of the area this
morning should clear by the aftn. Highs will warm to around 70 F
for most of VA and NC today, with a few lower 70s possible. It
will likely remain in the mid- upper 60s over the VA/MD Eastern
Shore. Overall, these highs are 2-3 degrees higher than NBM and
closer to the MAV/MET guidance which tends to perform better in
well- mixed and downsloping flow regimes. Given the dry airmass
and subsiding winds tonight, lows should be able to fall into
the low-mid 40s areawide (mildest along the water).
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

The upper flow turns more zonal for Sunday as thicknesses build over
the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern also favors warmer temps through
the week. At the sfc, high pressure also situates over the
southeast CONUS. SW winds Sunday will be lighter (compared to
past two days) but still gusty to 20-30 mph in the afternoon
hours. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80, except in the low-
mid 70s on the eastern shore. A weak perturbation passing
through the OH River Valley will also allow for an increase in
mid/high clouds, especially in the later aftn Sun into Sun night
and Monday. Lows Sun night will also be much milder: in the
upper 50s/low 60s. Monday will be even warmer with most areas
likely to see one of the warmest days so far this year. The
current forecast has low- mid 80s for most of our VA and NC
counties with upper 70s on the eastern shore. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some upper 80s in NE NC. As mentioned before,
continued high clouds should keep the sky mostly-partly sunny.
Also cannot rule out a very brief shower with a moisture-starved
frontal boundary dropping S through the area. Coverage should
be low (20% of less) given low sfc moisture. Overnight lows Mon
look to be in the 50s.

The flow turns weak over the area Tuesday as ridging gradually
builds over the area. WPC progs and model guidance show the
remnant boundary from Monday lifting back N Tuesday, bisecting
the FA (roughly paralleling I-64). Light easterly flow is likely
NE of the boundary and S/SE flow SW of the boundary. Thus,
there may be a decent gradient in highs Tuesday. Mid 80s are
forecast well away from the coast over inland NE NC and SW
portions of the FA. Highs may stay in the mid 70s close to the
coast with even some upper 60s possible on the Atlantic side of
the eastern shore. The other thing the mention is model
soundings show a decent amount of sfc-based instability
(500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) along and SW of this boundary with
some higher dew points likely to pool where the warmer temps
reside. Therefore, there could be some pop-up showers and
thunderstorms S of I-64 given the boundary nearby. Have painted
a broad 20% PoP for most of VA, with 30% PoPs mainly SW of
US-460. Given very weak shear, no severe wx is expected. Lows
Tue night in the 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Low pressure is forecast to lift ENE through the upper Midwest
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into
the southern states. It`ll be slight cooler Wednesday (around 80
degrees) with increased clouds and a slight chance of showers
across the N/NW. Thursday has trended a few degrees cooler as
global models now show less in the way of ridging over the area.
There still is a good deal of variability among the ensemble
guidance, however. Instead of mid-upper 80s, NBM now suggests
lower 80s (with a few mid 80s possible across the far S).
Deterministic guidance is even cooler and in the upper 70s. The
cold front moves toward the area Friday with a chance for
showers and possibly thunderstorms. PoPs are only around 30% at
this time due to 1) models showing the front losing moisture E
of the Appalachians and 2) differences among when the front
actually crosses the area. Cooler Friday with afternoon highs in
the low-mid 70s. Overnight temps will remain on the mild side
and in the 60s Wed night and 50s Thu night. There is a decent
signal of temps trending even cooler for next weekend,
potentially into the 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR expected through the period. Mainly SCT clouds with bases
~10k ft AGL across the area early this morning. SKC is noted at
ORF/ECG/PHF. Similar conditions continue through 12z, with
clouds perhaps thickening to BKN-OVC at SBY. Any clouds clear by
later this morning/early aftn (lingering at SBY the longest).
Winds as of 6z are 10-15 kt. Winds then become gusty again after
sunrise into this aftn with gusts to around 30 kt possible.
Winds finally subside this evening/early tonight to 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Dry/mainly VFR for Sunday into early next week with
lighter winds.

&&

.MARINE...
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As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis shows low pressure well to our north with a
secondary cold front approaching the waters from the west. Winds are
W-SW at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt and will remain gusty through
late this aftn w/ SCAs continuing for all the waters until 4-7 PM.
Winds become W 20-25 kt (with gusts to around 30 kt) this morning
through early aftn behind the above mentioned cold front. The
highest winds will be on the tidal rivers due to mixing over
adjacent land areas. Similar to yesterday, a few gusts to 35 kt are
possible here (and potentially on the west side of the Ches Bay/near
the immediate Atlantic coast as well).

Sub-SCA winds return tonight through most of Sunday as high pressure
settles over the southeast CONUS. SW winds may then briefly increase
again to 15-20 kt (w/ gusts to 25 kt) Sun night into Mon morning
ahead of the next front. Local wind probs for 18 kt winds have
increased to 70-90% on the bay for a few hours Sun evening-Sun
night. That (weakening) front is forecast to drop through the area
late Monday into Monday night, with winds turning to the NE and then
to the E-SE on Tuesday (generally staying sub-SCA through this
timeframe given that it is a weakening front).
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Afternoon relative humidities will drop to around 25% for most
area this afternoon (30-35% on the eastern shore). Breezy
conditions are also expected with wind gusts of 30+ mph during
the time of the driest conditions. While these values
meet/exceed IFD thresholds, recent rainfall is likely to
preclude any significant fire wx concerns.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1250 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages/Headline Summary:

1) The Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended until 7 AM for
Currituck Co. NC and Va Beach for soundside flooding. All other
coastal flood headlines have expired.

Gusty W-WSW winds continue across the region. Tidal departures
have fallen significantly across the upper bay/ocean. However,
water levels remain above minor flood thresholds in/near the
Back Bay area of VA Beach and have been relatively steady over
the past few hours. These should slowly fall today, but have
extended the Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM for now (and can`t
rule out further extensions today).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NCZ017-
     102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...RHR/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...