Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 141854 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly settle over the region through Wednesday. A mainly dry cold front will drop across the region late Wednesday night, followed by high pressure returning Thursday into Friday. A strong cold front will affect the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest analysis places the center of sfc high pressure (~1032 mb) over eastern OH with weak sfc low pressure over the the southern Appalachians (this in association with a disturbance aloft passing through GA/SC). Locally, the NNE flow continues to bring some BKN/OVC stratocumulus to portions of SE VA/NE NC and also to the Piedmont (though both of these areas of clouds are scouring out to some extent). For the remainder of today, skies will avg out partly to mostly cloudy except mostly sunny for the MD eastern shore. Highs today will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Models in good agreement w/ sfc high pres centered from the NE CONUS to the mid-Atlantic states tonight into Wed afternoon. Becoming mostly clear tonight w/ lows in the l-m30s inland ...u30s-l40s at the coast. Upper level system passing off the SE coast looks to help initiate the development of at least a sfc trough off the NC and SE VA coast Wed with the surface high centered over northern New England and ridging SSW down the east side of the Appalachians. Any deep layer moisture looks to remain off the coast, but both GFS and NAM Bufkit soundings suggest shallow low level moisture pushes inland during the morning hrs with NE low level flow. Overall this means that skies look to become mostly cloudy Wed, earliest along the coast and by late morning/early aftn well inland. Limited mixing and the clouds will keep highs from warming much if at all despite rising 850 mb temps. Highs Wed will avg in the low to mid 50s N/NW a to the upper 50s SE. The high slides off the coast Wed night, as a mainly dry cold front drops across the region very late Wed night. That front will be moisture starved...so have gone w/ PoPs aob 10%. GFS/NAM do suggest that a very weak sfc low approaches the coast from the E Wed night which may increase PoPs (to 20-30%) mainly over the ocean waters. Lows Wed night will mainly range from the u30s- m40s. Warmer and becoming mostly sunny Thu with a breezy downslope NW flow. Highs on Thu in the lower 60s N and NE to the m-u60s central/S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term begins with shortwave ridging and high pressure at the surface moving across the region on Friday ahead of the next upper trof. Mid temps Thursday night in the 30s, with high temps Friday in the 50s. This is a bit below normal for mid November. Next upper trof moves through the region in the Saturday through early Sunday time frame. Still timing differences between 12Z GFS/ECMWF, with the ECMWF still about 12 hours slower than the GFS, which has slowed about 6 hours from yesterday. Have gone with a model blend, which leans a little toward the ECMWF. Upstart is that any precipitation along the front will hold off until Saturday afternoon, and potentially Saturday evening, if ECMWF solution works out. Expect a warmer day on Saturday, with max temps in the 60s (potentially around 70 if ECMWF is correct), after low temps Friday night in the upper 30s and 40s. Trof moves offshore by Sunday morning, with a dry, but breezy/perhaps windy and colder day Sunday, with high temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Cold high pressure builds into the region Sunday through Monday. Low temps Sunday night in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with high temps next Monday in the 40s. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NNE low level flow allowing for redevelopment of BKN/OVC stratocumulus over much of the area, now having shifted inland due to daytime heating. Conditions are still primarily VFR with cigs mostly above 3,000 ft AGL. Sfc high pressure to stay centered N of the local area but ridging down into interior VA tonight which should lead to skies becoming mostly clear by 00Z. Models now showing some sfc low development along/just off the SE VA/NC coast on Wed, and this will tend to bring BKN/OVC clouds back into coastal areas early Wed morning, and to all areas from 15-18Z/Wed. Cigs expected to be mainly MVFR or low- end VFR, ranging from 1500-2500 ft near the coast, and more like 2500-3500 ft well inland. Mostly cloudy but VFR Wed night as a cold front approaches from the W with a mainly dry frontal passage Thu. Becoming breezy with WNW winds and mainly sunny/clear conditions Thu and thu night. Mostly clear Fri/Fri night. A cold front will impact the region over the weekend, breezy SW flow ahead of the front Sat, shifting to the NW in the wake of the front Sat night or Sun. Some showers and flight restrictions will be possible though a lot of uncertainty as this is several days out.
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&& .MARINE... Adding SCA headlines to the lower James for NE winds 15-20 kt. Extended the SCA headlines for Currituck sound into early evening to match with the Bay, while Ocean SCA flags remain in effect through tonight. Winds will avg 15-20 kt with 25 kt gusts. Otherwise, seas will average 4-6ft through this evening and then gradually subside to 4-5ft overnight tonight. Stacked low pressure crosses the Upper Great Lakes Wed/Wed night, digs over the St Lawrence River Valley/Northeast States Thu/Thu night, and exits along the Canadian maritimes Fri. A spoke of upper level energy is expected to cross the Mid Atlantic Region Wed night and may allow a sfc coastal low to spin up near the Hatteras/Mid Atlantic coasts Wed night into Thu morning before pushing away from the coast Thu aftn by the upper level wave. Gradient tightens up by Thu aftn due to presence of coastal low and sfc high pressure building over Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Winds generally light and onshore/ENE to N aob 10kt Wed night becoming WNW and increasing to roughly 10-15kt all waters Thu morning/aftn. A cold air advection surge is anticipated Thu night into Fri morning, and a period of SCA conditions may be possible. Seas 3-5ft; waves 3-4ft. High pressure returns briefly Fri...sliding off the Southeast Coast Fri night. Winds become light aob 10kt with variable wind directions...becoming more southerly late Fri night and increasing into Sat (SW 15-25kt) as the next cold front approaches from the west. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...BMD/JDM

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