Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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735 FXUS61 KAKQ 282034 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WW119 ISSUED FOR OUR SW TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE NC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58 AND WEST OF A JACKSON NC TO EMPORIA VA LINE UNTIL 11PM. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WAVY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND OF NE NC BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEGINNING TO NOTE INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF COOL SECTOR/CAD WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS S CENTRAL VA AND NE NC. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL...WHILE PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. FAIRLY UNIFORM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF ~25-35KT PORTEND TO SEMI- ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HRRR/RUC AND FAVORABLE LIFT INDICES OVER THIS AREA PER MSAS ANALYSIS. SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS INLAND NE NC (MAINLY WEST OF THE CHOWAN RIVER), AND IT IS STILL BELIEVED TO BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY/EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT... THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/DAP MARINE...MAM/SAM

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