Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260029 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 829 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... ANY CU DISSIPATES BY SUNSET AS OFFSHORE RIDGE DOMINATES. MSTLY CLR. LOWS IN THE L-M60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES THE PREVIEW OF SUMMER THRU THE PRD. MODELS DVLP A LEE TROF EACH DAY. CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES E INTO THE PIEDMONT TUE AS AIRMASS OVR MOST OF THE FA REMAINS CAPPED. KEPT 20-30 DIURNAL POP OVR THE WRN MOST CNTYS. HIGHS IN THE M-U80S...M70S-L80S CSTL AREAS...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. LATEST MODELS AMPLIFY THE SFC TROF AND ARE QUICKER TO BREAK THE CAP WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE APPRCHG MSTR FROM THE OHIO/TN VLLYS BOTH WED AND THURS. CONTINUED SUMMER-LIKE BUT WITH HIGHER CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTRN/EVE SHWRS/TSTRMS WEST OF THE CHES BAY WED AND AS FAR E AS THE COASTAL AREAS THURS. GIVEN THE INCRG PW`S AND LL MSTR...THREATS WILL BE FOR LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS AS STEERING CRNTS REMAIN WEAK. A TAD COOLER GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT WITH MORE HUMIDITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE L-M80S...XCPT 75-80 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS IN THE M-U60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW AND SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE OF POPS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS WILL BE LOWER OVER FAR SE PORTIONS. GUIDANCE HAS 85H TEMPERATURES GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 16C. CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL ALSO HOLD READINGS DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 INLAND AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL BE MODERATELY HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS BE SOUTHERLY MONDAY EVENING...INCREASING FROM THE S/SW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG HI PRES OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THIS STAGNANT WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT...UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE CSTL WTRS EACH LATE AFTN/EVENG. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY BUT HAVE CAPPED SUSTAINED WINDS FOR NOW AT ~15 KT. WAVES OVER THE BAY WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AT 2-4 FT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...MAS

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