Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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004 FXUS61 KAKQ 220734 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 334 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will bring warm and dry conditions through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday...then slowly push through the local area on Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and low pressure lingers from the Great Lakes to New England. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Near 1028 mb sfc hi pres centered invof srn NJ attm w/ upper level ridge axis aligned N-S invof ern seaboard. A fair amount of CI now streaming into the region from the WSW...and conditions overall are mild and near calm. Will once again have patchy FG early this morning...coverage may end up a little more than the past couple of mornings. After that...another dry/seasonably warm day. Issue of partly sunny vs mostly sunny dependent on coverage of clouds (mainly CI)...w/ highs in the m-u70s...l70s at the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. During Mon...low pres deepens over the deep South/lower MS Valley while a strong upper ridge remains in place just off the East Coast. Still warm/mainly dry through Mon...increasing PoPs limited to (well) W of I 95 toward evening. Highs in the u70s E to the l-m70s W (where clouds begin to thicken in the afternoon). Latest 00Z/22 GFS/NAM/ECMWF have trended a bit slower w/ the overall timing of the next cold depicting the best lift/forcing for likely to categorical PoPs (60-80%) from about 09Z/Tue through 19Z/Tue. Strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in the 60s...won`t rule out ISOLD tstms late Mon night/Tue morning...mainly for SE VA/NE NC. Partial clearing expected Tue by late morning W and by late aftn E...and have continued w/ lowering PoP trend W-E. Still mild through Tue w/ lows Mon night in the 60s...then highs Tues in the 70s as cold air lags well behind off to the NW of the local area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any RA tapers off/ends near the coast early Tue evening. Temperatures falling from the 60s in the evening to 45-50F inland and 50-55F closer to the coast by Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45F inland and 45F to around 50F by morning. Conditions generally dry thereafter (Wed- Sat) as sfc high pressure builds back into the region Wed night through Thu night. Sfc high slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast Fri and then up off the New England Coast Fri night. Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed/Wed night with highs in the 60s areawide and lows in the 40s. Temps slow to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64F. High pressure slides overhead Thu night and then temperatures slowly moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50F beaches). Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F. Lows Fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-56F immediate coast. Highs Sat in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sfc hi pres is situated immediately off the Mid-Atlantic coast attm. Winds remain light/VRB while BKN-OVC CI spreads over the region from the WSw. Another round of fog is expected into early this morning...w/ a potential for IFR/LIFR conditions...mainly at SBY/PHF/ECG. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF forecast period...though w/ continue BKN- OVC CI...and a light SE wind of 4-8kt as hi pres remains off the Mid- Atlantic coast. A cold front is forecast to track through the region Mon night through Tue morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and low CIGs. Mainly VFR Tue aftn/eve through Thu. && .MARINE...
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A large area of surface high pressure over the region will allow for generally benign conditions over the waters today. Winds generally are 5 knots or less over all of the coastal waters this morning. Winds become ESE by this afternoon and increase to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are expected to range from 1 foot or less in the Bay and rivers (1 to 2 feet at the mouth of the Bay) and 2 to 3 feet over the coastal waters. The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not come later Monday through Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the west crosses the waters. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front later Monday into Tuesday, shifting to the WNW behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most or all of the area Mon night/Tue as the pressure gradient should be strong enough for winds of 15-25 kt with higher gusts. Coastal seas build to 5-9 ft with waves of 3-4 ft in the Bay likely. A fair amount of uncertainty remains Tue night/Wed regarding how strong the pressure gradient will be as the models tend to keep the cold air and strong winds off to our NW over the Great Lakes until Thursday.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...AJB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.