Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240617 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 217 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT... EXPECT LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MAS

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