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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
000
FNUS71 KAKQ 150825
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for Bear Swamp Mega...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures quickly warm after sunrise this morning. Dry conditions
are expected through at least the early afternoon with minimum
relative humidities falling to 35-40%. Southwest winds will average
around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms is then expected later this afternoon, with
the best chance after 3 PM. Winds shift easterly for Tuesday with
cooler temps expected.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (67400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 88 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31 24 16 9 12 16 19 28 46 46
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 50 50
Temp............64 68 73 77 80 81 82 82 82 79
RH..............58 54 48 42 39 38 37 37 37 42
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7
20 FT wind gust.12 12 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.6 4.7 3.9 3.0
Transp wind dir.SW W W W W W W W W SW
Transp wind spd.8 10 13 15 15 15 14 15 16 16
LVORI...........2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............8 16 33 52 68 79 88 82 74 58
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 10 22 36 49 59 67 61 53 41
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD FR FR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming northeast 5 to 6
mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph shifting to the north 7 to 9
mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 33.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50 55 61 56 51 46 41 35 30 27 24 22
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 20 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0
Temp............75 71 68 66 65 63 62 61 60 59 57 57
RH..............50 59 68 73 78 84 87 90 87 83 83 80
20 FT wind dir..SW SW S SW W W W NW N N N NE
20 FT wind spd..6 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6
20 FT wind gust.9 9 8 6 5 3 5 5 5 7 8 9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW S S SE E E E N N N N NE
Transp wind spd.12 7 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 4
ADI.............33 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22 8 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
southeast around 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 16 mph shifting to the northwest
2 to 6 mph early in the afternoon, then
shifting to the west 3 to 5 mph late in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (29000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 42.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........22 22 28 37 49 54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 0 0
Temp............56 57 63 67 69 71
RH..............77 67 50 40 37 35
20 ft wind......NE 6 NE 6 NE 7 E 7 SE 7 SE 7
20 ft wind gust.9 11 12 13 12 12
Mix hgt (ft)....500 700 2200 3200 3900 2800
Transport wind..NE 12 NE 16 NE 14 N 9 NW 3 W 3
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 2 2
ADI.............5 17 38 35 16 11
Haines index....2 2 3 3 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 10 26 24 12 8
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...WRAY
Requested by...Natasha Whetzel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410796.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL natasha.whetzel@tnc.org
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