National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 231445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1045 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift eastward today bringing partly to
mostly sunny, breezy and milder weather. A low pressure system
will bring some rain and a localized high elevation rain snow
mix tonight through Wednesday. High pressure then returns with
dry weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...As of 1045 AM EDT, weak surface high pressure
continues to be squeezed between an approaching frontal low to
the west and a cutoff flow drifting northward to the east over
the Atlantic. Modest pressure falls have begun locally per
regional ASOS and NYS Mesonet observations, but cloud cover has
largely remained to the west of the region; have therefore
lowered sky cover expectation through the afternoon, however
mostly cloudy skies are still anticipated for this evening.
Temperatures are warming as expected beneath sunny skies, while
dewpoints have remained fairly low, supporting the issuance of
Special Weather Statements in collaboration with state
environmental and forestry agencies across VT and much of NY
for enhanced risk of fire spread as gusty south winds increase
over the coming few hours. Forecast therefore remains on track;
see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0645 AM EDT]...High pressure will be
positioned to our east today. The approach of a positively
tilted upper-level trough and surface low pressure system from
the west will result in a gradual increase in high clouds
through the day, but it should still remain partly to mostly
sunny through the afternoon. Following a cold start to the day
with temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s, southerly return
flow will aid in temperatures rebounding into the 60s for most
areas with some upper 50s across the higher elevations. An
increased pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions
developing this afternoon where a few gusts could reach 25 mph.
Any precipitation from our approaching system will hold off
until at least the evening hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A neutral to positively tilted upper level trough will cross the
region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Low pressure will track
near or just north of our area on Wednesday with a strong cold
front crossing the region on Wednesday. Clouds will increase and
thicken this evening with showers arriving from west to east
overnight into Wednesday morning. There is the chance for some
breaks of sun to occur for areas south and east of the Capital
District on Wednesday that some weak instability develops and
results in the potential for a rumble of thunder with any
convective showers that develop. Precipitation should taper off
from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon. The arrival of
cold air at the surface and aloft behind the cold front could
result in some wet snowflakes mixing in across portions of the
Adirondacks and southern Greens Wednesday afternoon before
precipitation ends but generally no accumulation is expected.
Overall QPF amounts look rather light for this evening with
less than 0.20 inches across much of the area. Upslope flow
could result in some QPF amounts up to 0.40 inches across the
Adirondacks. The clouds and southerly flow will keep
temperatures milder tonight with values in the upper 30s to
mid-40s. Temperatures reach the lower 40s to upper 50s on
Wednesday with falling temperatures in the afternoon hours
behind the cold front. Windy conditions will develop behind the
front as well with some gusts over 30 mph possible.

Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday night and will remain
anchored over the region through Thursday night. Clear/mostly
clear and dry weather is expected during this time with less
wind compared to Wednesday. It will be on the cold side both
Wednesday and Thursday night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.
Highs will only reach the 50s on Thursday with some upper 40s
across the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out on Friday with high pressure over the
region providing dry conditions, near normal temperatures and
relatively light winds. The high will shift eastward off the New
England coast Fri night, with a slight southerly flow
developing. This will result in low temperatures not as cold as
the previous few nights.

An upper level ridge axis will move east across the area on
Saturday. Guidance has slightly slowed the arrival of some
showers associated with a warm front approaching from the
south/west as it encounters the ridging. So will now mention
only slight chance PoPs from the Hudson Valley east and low
chance west through Sat afternoon. The upper ridge is expected
to flatten somewhat as a possible disturbance aloft moves
through Sat night. Along with the warm front, this should yield
scattered showers with milder lows in the 40s.

The warm front should lift north of our region on Sunday, as
upper ridging becomes re-established. This will result in
temperatures warming to above normal levels with lower/mid 70s
for highs in most valleys. There will still be a slight/low
chance of some showers spilling over the ridge, but overall it
looks mainly dry Sun into Sun night. The peak of the anomalous
warmth is expected to occur on Mon, with the ridge axis overhead
and developing low level SW flow. A cold front approaching from
the west may bring showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms
Mon afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...VFR conditions will likely prevail
through the 24 hour TAF period with high pressure over the
region early this morning, then shifting eastward off the New
England coast during the day. Just some high level cirrus clouds
will be around today. Mid level clouds will move in from the
north/west late this evening into the overnight hours ahead of a
low pressure system starting to approach from the Great Lakes
region. Cigs are expected to lower to around 4-5 kft by around
09z Wednesday, with scattered showers developing as the system
gets closer. Some borderline MVFR conditions are possible around
or shortly after 12z Wed.

Winds will initially be near calm through early this morning,
then becoming southerly and increasing to around 10-13 kt with
gusts of 20-25 kt developing by this afternoon. Winds tonight
will remain southerly with speeds decreasing to around 5-10 kt.
Borderline low level wind shear may develop this evening as SW
winds aloft increase. Will continue to monitor trends and will
include in subsequent TAFs if confidence increases.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will shift eastward today bringing partly to
mostly sunny, breezy and milder weather with temperatures rising
into the 60s with some upper 50s across the higher elevations. RH
values will lower to 25 to 35 percent during the afternoon hours
with southerly winds gusting to around 25 mph.

A period of rainfall is expected tonight through Wednesday and
may mix with or end as a brief period of snow across portions of
the Adirondacks and southern Greens before ending. Dry weather
then returns for Thursday and Friday with winds generally 5 to
15 mph both days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Picard/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun