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765
FXUS61 KALY 090524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
124 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Variable cloudiness and cooler temperatures are expected
this morning.  Chances for showers increase late this
afternoon and tonight and linger through the weekend. It looks
like we trend back towards drier and slightly warmer conditions for
the beginning of next week before chances for showers increase again
by midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 123 AM EDT...The skies have become mostly clear or partly
cloudy in the wake of the cold front from the Capital District
south and east. Mostly cloudy conditions continue south and
west. Cold advection continues across the forecast area with
west northwest winds of 5-15 mph with a few gusts 20-30 mph over
the higher terrain. A few light showers/spotty drizzle
continues over the southern Dacks...mainly north of Old Forge.
Some changes to sky cover with this update and a re-trending of
temps. Portions of the southern Adirondacks are already in the
mid 40s according to the NYS Mesonet. Expecting lows in the 40s
north and west of the Capital District/Mid Hudson
Valley/southern Taconics and NW CT with lower to mid 50s in
these areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow starts off relatively cool, especially across the
northern portions of our forecast area. It will also be dry to
start the day with a ridge of high pressure at the surface
beneath confluent flow aloft extending over our region. However,
a positively tilted upper trough with several embedded shortwave
disturbances rotating around it dips into the Great Lakes
region. The surface cold front continues its track southwards,
and an area of low pressure tracks eastwards from the Ohio
valley along the low-level thermal gradient beneath the left
exit region of the upper jet. This will bring increasing shower
chances in the afternoon and especially overnight, mainly for
areas along and south of I-90. Precipitation does not look as
widespread as it did at this time yesterday, especially tomorrow
afternoon. If current forecast trends continue, PoPs may have to
be trimmed back even more tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the
50s to 60s for highs tomorrow, and drop into the 40s tomorrow
night. A few wet snowflakes could mix in across the southern
Greens late tomorrow night, but little to no accumulation is
expected.

Friday and Friday night...Forecast confidence remains lower than
we would like for this timeframe. The upper trough takes on a
neutral to even negative tilt, and the surface low tracks to our
south off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the same time, an inverted
trough will extend back north and west into central NY. We will
likely see showers or a period of steady rain for areas near the
inverted trough, but exactly how far north and east this feature
and the associated precip makes it remains somewhat uncertain at
this time. The best chance for rain therefore appears to be from
Albany south and west. Here, likely to categorical PoPs were put
in the forecast, with chance PoPs further north and east.
Precipitation chances diminish Friday night as the surface low
moves off to the east, but will keep slight chance to chance
PoPs around with the upper trough axis moving overhead. Friday
will be quite cool, with highs the 40s for many high terrain
areas with 50s for the lower elevations. Friday night lows will
generally be in the 40s, with some upper 30s in the high terrain
areas. A couple wet snow flakes could mix in across the highest
peaks of the ADKs, southern Greens, and Catskills with any
lingering light showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Saturday with another upper shortwave
approaching from the west. This shortwave will close off aloft at it
moves over our area, which will slow the forward progress of the
large-scale trough causing it to remain overhead through most of the
weekend. The surface low associated with the upper shortwave weakens
as it moves into our area before redeveloping well or our east over
the Atlantic. With the surface low and upper trough nearby all
weekend, temperatures will likely be on the cool side, mainly in the
50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys). It will be mainly cloudy with
chances for showers each day, although we will see scattered showers
as opposed to an all-day rain.

We may dry out Sunday night into Monday as upper confluence and a
ridge of high pressure briefly build over the region, although an
upper shortwave and associated cold front may bring additional
chances for showers Monday afternoon into Tuesday for the norther
half of our forecast area. The track of this feature is far from set
in stone, so at this time till mention chance PoPs north of I-90 and
work to refine the timing/location of any precip over the next few
days. Forecast confidence decreases for the Tuesday into Wednesday
timeframe, as another storm system will be developing upstream and
may eventually track into our region towards the end of the long
term period. Will mention chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will be warmer, with more sun
than over the weekend and a southerly component of the flow helping
to advect warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front tracking through the terminals this evening has
resulted in a brief period of strong northwest winds sustained
up to 15-20kts and gusts up to 30-35kts with a few scattered
showers mainly at GFL, ALB and ALB. Showers quickly diminish and
winds weaken by 00 - 02 UTC in the wake of the boundary. Cold
air advection continues the rest of tonight with ceilings
gradually lowering and likely resulting in MVFR cigs at all
terminals. GFL and PSF should see MVFR cigs first beginning at
03 - 06 UTC with ALB and POU following closer to sunrise by 09 -
12 UTC. Low-level moisture looks to remain pooled beneath the
subsidence inversion through 15 UTC or so before winds shift to
the north-northeast and high pressure builds into northern New
England allowing for VFR conditions to resume.

Clouds lower late in the TAF period mainly at POU and PSF as a
warm front lifts from the mid-Atlantic northward but should only
drop to low-end VFR. Additional showers also spread northward
but mainly look to remain around POU with the rest of the
terminals remaining dry through 00 UTC.

Breezy northwesterly winds this evening sustained 5 - 15kts and
gusts up to 20-30kts associated with the arrival of a cold
front will weaken by 02 - 03 UTC. Northwesterly winds shift to
the north-northwest overnight and remain sustained around
5-7kts. Northerly or north-northeasterly winds continue through
the end of the TAF period and remain sustained around 5-8kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main/Wasula
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Speciale