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000
FXUS61 KALY 172322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
722 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaching from west will gradually move
eastward across the region through Thursday, providing cool and
unsettled conditions. After a brief break Thursday night,
additional showers are likely Friday associated with a cold
front passage. Cool, breezy and mainly dry weather is expected
for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Band of light rain over much of the region and more rain to the
west is feeding into the band, helping to increase the
intensity and coverage as it spreads across the rest of the
region through the evening. So, rain will get steadier but will
still be mainly light through the night. Just minor adjustments
to sky cover rain chances and temperatures through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Showers will slowly develop from SW to NE through this evening,
as a front gradually approaches from the south/west. The upper
level ridge axis over the region today will shift east. The
primary cyclone tracks east across the upper Great Lakes while a
weaker wave develops near the Delmarva overnight. So our area
will be in between the areas of best forcing, resulting in
relatively light rainfall compared to the past few events. QPF
tonight ranges from around 0.10" north/east of Albany(where low
levels are drier) to around 0.65" in the Mohawk Valley and
Catskills. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s in the
mountains to mid 40s in lower elevations. With increasing SE
flow aloft, some downslope areas in the S. Greens/W. Adirondacks
will have gusts of 20-30 mph at times.

Thursday looks to be rather gloomy with plenty of clouds around
with additional light showers. The upper low over the Great
Lakes will open into a trough and weaken while it tracks east
across far northern NY on Thu, as it encounters the old upper
ridge axis over New England. Still, there will be enough forcing
for scattered to numerous showers into the afternoon. With
surface high pressure settling over coastal New England, a
persistent easterly onshore flow will result in cool/damp
conditions across our region. Highs only expected to reach the
40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave ridging develops Thu night, so showers will likely
end during the evening. However, forecast soundings indicate
plenty of low level moisture trapped beneath a developing
inversion with cloudy skies persisting. Some drizzle is possible
too with drying aloft occurring. Lows will generally be in the
mid/upper 30s in the higher terrain with lower 40s in the
valleys.

On Fri, the ridge axis shifts east of our area while a cold
front approaches from the west. Both moisture and forcing do not
look overly impressive, but enough for some showers, with the
highest probs west of the Hudson Valley with a low level S-SW
flow. Showers should be light again, with most areas receiving <
0.25" QPF. With plenty of clouds/showers around it will be
another cool day with highs expected to be mainly in the 50s.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of
20-30 mph developing.

The cold front moves through Fri evening, with showers ending
overnight. Cold advection commences as well, but with plenty of
clouds still around and a westerly breeze developing low
temperatures will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will settle in across the Great Lakes and
Northeast over the weekend. The main short wave that will
introduce the trough looks to move through early Sat evening.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible, mainly for higher
terrain areas north and west of the Capital District. Gusty
westerly downslope winds and limited moisture should keep areas
from Albany south/east dry. Highs will be slightly below normal
ranging from 40s in the mountains to 55-60F in valleys. Drying
expected Sat night into Sun, as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal, while still under the influence of a broad trough. So dry
and cool conditions are expected, with temperatures running
slightly below normal with breezy/gusty W-NW winds.

Dry and seasonable conditions expected Mon into Tue, with
surface high pressure and a broad trough aloft in place.
Temperatures look to moderate back to normal levels. A coastal
cyclone moving off the SE coast should stay far enough away to
limit any impacts across our region, with deterministic and
ensemble guidance in agreement. The next disturbance approaching
from the west could bring the next chance of showers late Tue
into Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Band of rain well ahead of a warm front will expand and become
steadier through the night. Current VFR ceilings will lower to
MVFR, mainly between 04Z-12Z. The rain should be mainly quite
light with visibilities likely not going below 6SM through about
12Z. Steadier rain through Thursday morning and afternoon, will
result in visibilities around 6Sm and ceilings will continue
MVFR. Ceilings will lower to near IFR at KPOU.

Light south to east winds at 10 Kt or less, with a few gusts
over 15Kt at KALB and KPSF through tonight. Southeast winds
Thursday morning and afternoon at around 10 Kt, with a few gusts
over 15 Kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS