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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 220407
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1207 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HAVE ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #203 TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED. A SUMMARY LOCAL STORM
REPORT (LSR) HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE LAST SEVERE WEATHER REPORT WE
RECEIVED WAS 9:35 PM. THREAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS 914 PM EDT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ALBANY
00Z SOUNDING HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1800 J/KG AND THE 850-500
MB LAPSE RATE OF 7.2 C/KM. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE BEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MAJORITY OF REPORTS EARLIER TODAY WHERE HAIL AND THIS EVENING WE
HAVE HAD WIND AND HAIL REPORTS.

AS 415 PM EDT...IMPRESSIVE LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND POINTS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED HAIL MONSTER LIKE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH SOME ELEVATED HAIL CORES /> 50 DBZS/ WAY ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT. IN SOME CASES...EXCEEDING 40 KFT AGL !!!

A QUICK MESOANALYIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW/MESO LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WITH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KGFL...AND S/SW AT KPOU...AND SE WINDS OVER ALY. THE FCST
AREA GOT INTO A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS SOARED INTO
THE MID AND U80S...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. A FEW 90S HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT IS JUST CLIPPING THE DACKS...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND S-CNTRL VT.

SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES SBCAPES
HAVE REACHED 2000-3500+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD /1000-2000 J/KG/. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES /BASICALLY
SOUTH OF ALY/ WITH LESS THAN 30 KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR
VALUES ARE 30-40 KTS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE
6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO REFIRING ON THE AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SBCAPE VALUES...AND THE RIM OF THE 30 KT SHEAR VALUES.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA INDEX INDICATES A MAJOR SEVERE EVENT /HINGING
ON THE LARGE CAPE VALUES/.

CAPE=2000 J/KG (APPROX)
MAX SOUNDING WIND=40 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=20
KTS SRH=125

THE SVR CONVECTION SHOULD SIMMER DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE FROM EXTREME SE ONTARIO...AND NRN LAKE
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT OUR NRN ZONES BTWN BTWN 7 PM-10 PM. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...AND WE KEPT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. POPS WERE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL AND HIGH LIKELY
VALUES...AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY COULD GET SOME
DECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT SETS UP IN THESE AREAS. THE SHOWALTER VALUES ARE STILL BELOW
0C...SO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE A ROUND...SO WE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN.

OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE ON THE MURKY SIDE WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
M60S FOR LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 1000-2500 J/KG
AGAIN OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ONLY 25-30 KTS OR SO PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THEN THEY
INCREASE BTWN 00Z-06Z BASED ON THE NAM/GFS. THE LAPSE RATES DON/T
STEEPEN TO 6.5C/KM UNTIL AROUND 00Z TOO. OUR THINKING IS FOR A
LATER CONVECTIVE EVENT TOMORROW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED /EXCEPT WRN NEW
ENGLAND/. HAVE DECIDED TO USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GUIDANCE USUALLY
STRUGGLES WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGHS...AND ONE LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES OF 1.25-1.75"...AND SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN
THE 60S AGAIN. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT.
OUR LOCAL WRF INDICATES A SQUALL LINE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL
NY BY 00Z/THU IN THE 3KM BASE REF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS...AND
M80S TO U80S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S WED
NIGHT WITH SULTRY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ON
THU WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST. THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING AND ISSUE. LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
AND EAST MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE
WEATHER. NO SPC OUTLOOK YET...BUT DEFINITELY COULD SEE ONE LATER
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.  WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU. THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WAVE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S BY
DAYBREAK FRI. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER`S GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEFS MEANS. WPC
INDICATES THE DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE STEADIER MEANS THAT THEY WERE
NOT INCORPORATION INTO THEIR FORECAST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE
LINGER SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AROUND 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF
THE GROWING SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES WOULD BE LIKELY
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS COULD BE COLDER WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A
FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HAVE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION...STRONG TO SEVERE...HAS MOVED INTO
THE AREA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALSO HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BASED TIMING OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TAFS ON RADAR TRENDS. DO EXPECT A LULL IN
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AGAIN...AND THE AREA GETS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA BECOMING LIKELY.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG
VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS
TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE HIGHEST AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC QPF WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION...AND A THIRD OF AN INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA