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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 162307
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
707 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
LATER SUNDAY AS MORE MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 700 PM...THE WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO SHOWERS EVIDENT ON
CURRENT RADAR LOOP...ALTHOUGH A FINE LINE MARKING THE POSITION OF
THE COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO UNDER
10 MPH BY LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS...AND MAINLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CLEAR OR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST AT TIMES DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS EACH
AFTERNOON AND SOME OVERUNNING MID/HI CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEASONABLE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...
AND 40 TO 50 SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH...WITH RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MIDWEST...AND THE SOUTHEAST.  AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK.
A WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF TH REGION...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY IN THE DAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE RETURN FLOW FROM SFC HIGH COUPLED WITH
A RESIDUAL COLD POOL ALOFT MAY ALSO FOCUS SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  SLIGHT CHC POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR THE
CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND.  CLOUDS AND THE MARITIME FLOW FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEPS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U40S TO 50S.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.  LOW AND MID LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING...AND
WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASING COULD ALLOW AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER
MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY /POSSIBLY A LOW CHC OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...AND BERKS SOUTH/...WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
PROGGED ON THE ENSEMBLES/GFS/ECMWF.  A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH A SLIGHT CHC NORTH AND EAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...FOLLOWED CLOSELY HPC FOR THE MID WEEK PORTION OF
THE FCST WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUE...AND THEN A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY FOR WED.  THE
GFS IS INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY ON WED WITH SBCAPES IN THE
500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F  WITH
INCREASING 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR TO 30-40+ KTS.  SOME STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING IS REALIZED BUT THIS IS DAY 6...SO
WE WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THU FOR
CONTINUED LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE FCST.  TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS WITH 70S TO L80S
FOR THE STRETCH...AND 50S TO L60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME STRONGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY DESPITE A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT...AND TRACKING ACROSS OHIO...WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE VERY
DRY WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AT MID LEVELS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR...CHC IFR SHRA/TSRA
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS...ALL AREAS HAVE REACHED
GREEN UP.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 MPH. ON
FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100
PERCENT...THEN FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH FLOWS
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM