-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
521
FXUS61 KALY 060503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
103 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
It will remain cloudy and damp overnight, with some patchy
drizzle or isolated showers possible. Clouds will break for
some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to
the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before
the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the latter
portion of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...As of 100 AM EDT, showers have ended across the
region, with overcast skies remaining. Warm front has reached
western NY, with cold front approaching from SW Ontario/Lake
Erie region. These fronts should merge into a weak occluded
front overnight, and as it approaches from the west, isolated to
scattered showers should redevelop across the SW
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak.

Otherwise, skies should remain overcast, and with a light
southeast to south wind persisting, temps will hold steady, or
even rise slightly from current levels through daybreak.

Despite a very moist boundary layer, the persistent wind and
cloud cover may tend to limit fog formation in many areas.
Should winds decrease and/or any small breaks in the clouds
develop, then patchy/areas of fog could quickly develop, and
will monitor trends closely.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0745 PM EDT]...A slow moving frontal boundary
is located over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of
this storm system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south-
southwest low level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady
area of light to moderate rainfall over much of the region. The
steadiest and heaviest rain is in a band from the mid Hudson
Valley northeast through the eastern Capital Region, Taconics
and Berkshires and into southern VT. Through the the early
evening hours, this band of steadiest rainfall will be slowly
shifting eastward into New England.

As the steadiest rain starts to exit off to the east this
evening, precip will start to become more showery in nature,
thanks to the best isentropic lift shifting northeast of the
area. Still, additional showers are expected for late this
evening and into the overnight, as our area will be still
downstream of the slow moving frontal boundary to the west, as
the moist southerly low level flow, aided by the cyclonic flow
aloft, will continue to allow for additional showers. In
addition, some patchy fog may start to develop, especially for
sheltered areas for the overnight hours. In total, some areas
will have seen over an inch of rain in total (especially within
the Capital Region, parts of the Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks), although no hydro impacts expected to recent dry
weather and rainfall rates being manageable.

Temps have been steady all day in the mid 40s to low 50s. These
temps will continue into the overnight, with not much variation
expected due to the widespread cloud cover. Although winds have
been gusty from the south through the day, they will gradually
start to come down through the overnight hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface front will finally be crossing the area from west to
east during the day on Monday. A few additional spotty showers
can`t be ruled out with the front (mainly eastern and southern
areas), but moisture will become limited, as the high PWAT air
will have shifted off to the east. While all areas will start
the day cloudy, increasing sun is expected by afternoon as the
front crosses through and winds switch to the west. It may take
until later in the day for the sun to finally break out for
southeastern areas. Temps should rise fairly quickly once the
sun breaks out, as warm temps should still allow for a mild
afternoon, with highs in valley areas back into the low to mid
70s (60s for the high terrain).

Better clearing is expected for Monday night with quiet weather.
Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s with the fairly clear
skies and light winds thanks to nearby surface high pressure.

A warm and sunny day in expected on Tuesday thanks to high
pressure. With plenty of sun expected and 850 hpa temps of +5 to
+8 C, highs should reach into the 70s once again for many valley
areas. While Tuesday evening will start off dry, clouds will be
increasing and a threat for showers will arrive by the late
night hours, as the next shortwave starts to approach from the
Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term
period.

Area of low pressure will be tracking close to the area on
Wednesday. Recent model runs have speed the timing of this
feature up slightly, so the best chance of rain may be from
Tuesday night into the first half of the day on Wednesday. Some
instability may still be present (especially southern areas), so
can`t rule out some thunder, but still unclear if there will be
a threat for stronger storms, especially considering the earlier
timing of this system. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and
more humid for Wednesday with the showers and possible t-storms.
Temps still look to reach the 60s and 70s.

There should be a brief dry stretch behind this initial system,
so much of Wed night looks dry into start of Thursday, but
another system will be impacting the region for the late week.
Have gone with high chc to likely POPs for Thurs/Fri as another
slow moving shortwave moves across the area with some additional
showers. Instability looks lower than Wednesday, but a stray
rumble can`t be ruled out. Highs look mainly in the 60s with
lows in the 40s for Thursday into Friday.

Over the weekend, there are some differences in the models
regarding the next approaching storm trough. There could be a
period of ridging allowing for some dry and quiet weather before
another round of showers heads towards the area. The timing is
still uncertain, so will keep the chance for showers for both
Saturday and Sunday, although it`s possible some dry weather
could occur. Temps could be a little below normal with highs in
the lower 60s, although it will depend on the exact coverage of
clouds/sun.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Mixed MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue
through much of the overnight period as showers exit to the east
while areas of fog/mist develop before sunrise Monday morning. While
the coverage of rain showers has begun to lessen, MVFR or possibly
IFR vsbys are still expected within heavier shower elements before
showers fully depart into New England by 03-06Z Mon. MVFR/IFR cigs
below 2-3 kft will persist through the overnight period, although
cloud coverage trending toward bkn skies after 06-08Z may allow for
areas of fog/mist to form, more likely at GFL/POU/PSF than at ALB
where winds will remain slightly higher.

Vsbys return to VFR and cigs begin to trend upward after sunrise
Monday, with scattered light rain showers again possible as a weak
cold front crosses the region from northwest to southeast through
the late morning and into the afternoon, with no impacts to flying
conditions expected.

Southeast winds continue through the overnight period at 10 kt or
less at all terminals. Some gusts at ALB may reach 15-20 kt before
rain shower coverage diminishes by 02-04Z Sun. Elsewhere, speeds
trend downward quickly, with very light or calm winds expected,
although low-level wind shear may exceed 30 kt at 1500 ft at PSF
through 03-04Z Sun. Winds turn out of the southwest and ultimately
out of the west by 15-18Z Sun, at 5-10 kt at ALB/PSF and at less
than 5 kt at GFL/POU.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/Picard
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Picard