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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 181414
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1014 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME MID LEVEL ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATER IN THE
DAY SO HAVE KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. DESPITE CLOUD COVER EXPECTING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ADVECT
NORTHWARD AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF EITHER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS QUITE LIGHT LIMITING MIXING FOR DRIZZLE
FORMATION. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF DEEPER MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. COMBINE THAT WITH MAY SUNSHINE AND OUR
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH EMBEDDED SUBTLE SHORT WAVES SHOULD
BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RISE SO NOT EXPECTING THE COVERAGE NOR INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS TO GET TOO STRONG. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB TO NEAR
70F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH 60S MORE COMMON CWA-WIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION WITH
EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND. WITH NO DISTINCTIVE
TRIGGERS AND THE HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE...WE WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER AND
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO
THE 50S...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR.

MONDAY...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE MIGRATING THROUGH THE REGION
AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO
THE 60 DEGREE RANGE. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AND/OR A THUNDERSTORM.
WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH SHEAR PROFILES
LESS THAN 20KTS. SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...AN INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS INSTABILITY ACROSS
OUR REGION REMAINS FAVORABLE TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST. A RATHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE REGION
WILL BE DEEPER IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR WITH LOWS GENERALLY
INTO THE 60S SOME 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO BE UNSETTLED AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION.

WHILE A RIDGE AT 500 HPA SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...AN
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH.
OUR REGION WILL ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WITH A SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT/S
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT ANY PARTICULAR DAY THAT WILL HAVE MORE OR
LESS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
EXTENSIVE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND SWEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS SHOW 850 HPA TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH
THEY DISAGREE ON JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET. THE 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH IS CONTINUING A TREND IT HAS SHOWN
FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS WARM AT THE GFS AND MEX
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL...MAX
TEMPS LOOK WARM WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR
TUESDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR WED/THURS. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW 70S FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER FOR THE HILLS AND MTNS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...WITH 50S TO LOW 60S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH JUST SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS WELL WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. MID LEVELS CLOUDS WILL
BECOME BKN AT AROUND 5-8 KFT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE
THIS EVENING. TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY...CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS
AT KPOU DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTENING LOW
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN AM...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN PM-NIGHT...VFR...ISOLD -SHRAS.
MON-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS...ALL AREAS HAVE REACHED
GREEN UP.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH...WHICH CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND RECOVER TO GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT TONIGHT. VALUES
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERALL QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ARRIVES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM