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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 200248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH...ALONG
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1048 PM EDT...ONLY A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
WINDHAM COUNTY VT AND EVEN THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THOUGH...AS A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS
ENVELOPED THE AREA WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER OR MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTER WITH LOWS OF
CLOUDS AND PERIODS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE DIFFICULT...BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE FORECAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN AND EVE...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTN THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE WARMER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80... LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHEARS OUT AS MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FLATTENS. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR HUDSON
BAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
SYSTEM`S WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
MID WEEK AND THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AS BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL NEED TO
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT THE MODELS ARE
NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE TO BE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION IT WILL BE COOL WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NOTE: THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START
ON MAY 20TH FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY AND ON MAY 25TH ON THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE ALL OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH ONE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS IS PASSING BY JUST
NORTH OF KGFL. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A SOUTHEAST MARINE
FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC SKIES INITIALLY
IN MVFR RANGE LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME WILL MENTION IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KPOU/KPSF
BEFORE 06Z...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FORECASTING IFR AT KALB/KGFL UNTIL
06Z SINCE CIGS ARE INITIALLY HIGHER AT THESE LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN AROUND 13Z-
16Z...AS THE STRONG LATE MAY SUN WORKS ON THE STRATUS DECK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY START TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON...SO WILL
MENTION VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END
THIS EVENING. AS A HUMID AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AT THE SAME SPEED...BUT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH BEFORE IT ENDS THIS EVENING. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM