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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 161731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.  THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING FROM
GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
SFC WAVE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN NY AND NRN PA...AS
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.

THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
COUPLED WITH THE THERMAL ADVECTION. THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TIED TO THE BETTER QG LIFT IS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
THE SHOWALTER VALUES GRAZE 0 C...AND THE SBCAPE OR MUCAPES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE. THE PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY /GENERALLY IN THE
200-500 J/KG RANGE/ SHOULD CURTAIL ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME RUMBLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...AND WE HAVE PHRASED IT AS
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SFC CYCLONE AND ITS PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE U60S TO M70S ARE FORECASTED FROM THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES
NORTHWARD...WITH U70S TO L80S SOUTH...WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED.  PWATS WILL BRIEFLY BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. THE HIGHEST QPF OF A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH IS FROM ROUGHLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SFC
TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IN
LOCATIONS...THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FCST FOR LOCATIONS AT 1000 FT AGL OR LOWER. A COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND MIDWEST. LOWS WERE USED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV-
MET MOS VALUES WITH 50S TO L60S OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY. THIS SFC WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT
STARTS TO DESCEND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TRICKY
BASED ON THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE/GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME DECENT HEATING
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM KALB SOUTH. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM.
THE SBCAPES ARE MUCH LOWERS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO NAM...SINCE THE
NAM HAS HIGHER DEWPTS /LOWER TO M60S/ OVER THE SRN TIER. THE GFS
INDICATES SBCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG WITH THE NAM HAVING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
DOES INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS FOR POSSIBILITY OF DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE FLOW BEING UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WOULD INDICATE SOME LINEAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT A CAVEAT
TO ALL THE CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES IS THE SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST CAUSING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HELDERBERGS
AND CATSKILLS...ALLOWING THE SFC DEWPTS TO DROP OFF.

SCT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS ISOLD AT BEST SINCE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H250 JET STREAK TO HELP
ENHANCE ANY CONVECTION. LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
THE 10-METER WINDS SHOWING THE SW FLOW NICELY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN
THE U70S TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 70S OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING OVER
E-CNTRL NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES TO U50S TO L60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT...AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WAVE OR MCS ALONG
IT. THE GFS BLASTS THE FRONT THROUGH...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A NICE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/CAN GGEM
STALL THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SOME OVER
RUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. A LONG CONFIDENCE FCST
HERE...AND WE HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN BASED ON THE STRONGER CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE.
TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER WX TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION ON TUE WITH U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS. LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TUE NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S TO L50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

DESPITE BEING UNDER THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A
COUPLE/FEW DAYS.

BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
ZONAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT MOVING INDIVIDUAL PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THIS FLOW. HAVE GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
(20-30 PERCENT) FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OUT BELOW NORMAL MID WEEK HOWEVER
THEY WILL MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WITH NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY THICKENED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE APPROACHING LOW GETS CLOSER. SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KGFL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER THE THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT IS
NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS...JUST HAVE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF LOW OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO VFR
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KGFL WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5-8 KTS MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.  THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY.

A GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE RH TRENDS EACH MORNING. THE SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.

RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
WITH ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE SOUTH.

QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA