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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 221200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY. WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT ON THE COAST FRIDAY...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TSTMS HAVE ENDED AND ONLY SCT -SHRA REMAIN MAINLY OVER S VT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SOME ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALONG THE S TIER. FOR THE
NEXT SVRL HOURS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND END.
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF FCA WILL THIN WITH INCRG SUNSHINE FOR A FEW
HRS.

THE HOOSIC RIVER AND SOME SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE
REACHED BANK FULL AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED FLOOD THIS MORNING BEFORE
RECEDING. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THESE
SITUATIONS.

AT SFC WMFNT IS N OF FCA. IT WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE VLY TO
MICHIGAN LINE...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG AND PROPAGATES UP
IT TODAY. THIS LEAVES FCA IN WARM SECTOR WITH ALOT OF RESIDUAL
LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FM TUES CONVECTION

WITH TD IN 60S...TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 80S...VRBL CLOUDS THE THREAT
OF TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LOCAL WRF/HRRR WHICH HANDLED
TODAYS EVENT WELL...SHOW A MAINLY CELLULAR AND PULSE RESPONSE
TODAY IN SIMULATED REFL. GFS PRODUCES SFC CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG THE NAM 2000-4000 J/KG WITH A DEFINE PREFERENCE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT S & E AND THE MHWK VLY.

NAM AND GFS SHOW H850-700 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 THIS AFTN.

GOING TO HRRR FOR THE LATE AFTN:

POU/ALB/GFL
CAPE 2000/1812/1777
J/KG MAX WIND 33/33/40 EHI OF 1.6/1.5/1.2
STORM SPEED 24/18/18
SRH 175/156/106
MAGLENTA 1.75/2.17/2.44 ALL MAJOR SEVERE

WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOOKING THAN HRRR REFL. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN
CAPE AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG.

PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES OF 1.50-1.8 INCHES.

SOME OTHER CONSIDERATIONS LLVL JET AT H850 HPA IS 25-35KTS...AND
BULK OF IT MAY PASS WEST OF FCA. THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL UPPER
FORCING.  SPC HAS OUTLOOKED NY PORTIONS OF FCA AT THIS POINT WILL
NOT TRY TO GET SPECIFIC...WILL GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING TODAY. IF
THERES A PREFERRED AREA IT WOULD MHWK VLY AND S...AND A PREFERRED
TIME OF LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG HOURS AND DIM OVERNIGHT AS
FCA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTION. LOWS AND TD WILL BE IN THE
60S...AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU AND THU NT 500HPA TROF STARTS MOVING E THROUGH GRTLKS AS SFC
LOW ORGANIZES ALONG SEMI-STALLED FRONT FROM FM LK ERIE UP ST
LAWRENCE VLY. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY EAST DRAGGING A CDFNT TO
BTV-SYR LINE THU AFTN...AND THROUGH FCA BY 12UTC FRI. NAM/GFS IN
PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING. WHILE THERE IS INCRG
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING JET AND TROF...CAPES 1000-1500 ...CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD HOLDING MAX TEMPS TO MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS
ONLY PUT AREA IN SEE TEXT ATTM...WITH LOW PROBS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
REGARDLESS AREA WILL SEE PERIOD OF -SHRA/TSTMS INCRG THU...TRANSITIONING
TO -SHRA/-RA BEHIND THE CDFNT OVERNIGHT.

BY FRI MORNING CDFNT WILL BE IN I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE ATLC
COAST. 500HPA TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO NE USA...AND BOTH MODELS
DEVELOP A MODEST SFC LOW OVER NJ. THE WARMTH OF PAST FEW DAYS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOL BREEZY WITH -SHRA FRI. FINALLY SFC LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE FRI NT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS.
HWVR THE 500HPA TROF LINGERS AND CUTS OFF OVER NEW ENG SAT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A BRISK NW GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SOME
PRETTY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION FOR LATE MAY. WITH 500HPA CUT OFF
LINGERING SKIES MAY ONLY BE PS SAT IN GFS.

TEMPS WILL PROBABLY GO NOWHERE FRI...ONLY COMING OFF MORNING LOWS
A FEW DEG...OR HOLDING STEADY.

THE GFS/NAM ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW DEPARTING THE COAST FRI
NT...WITH ITS 500 HPA TROF CROSSING REGION SAT AND DEPARTING SAT
NT WITH PC SKIES AND A RATHER BRISK WIND GRADIENT.

THE 00UTC ECMWF CUTS OFF THE 500HPA LOW OVER NJ...DEVELOPS A
COASTAL LOW...WHICH LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF RAW CHILLY RAIN.

THE GFS TEMPS WOULD BRING MINS SAT MORNING INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH SOME NEAR 30 AND POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
ADRNDKS. HIGHS SAT WILL ONLY REBOUND EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUN TO
THE 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK. ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT TIME
TEMPS AND COOLER YET DAYTIME TEMPS IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HPC
LEANS TWRD A BLEND WITH CHC POPS LINGERING INTO SAT. IT WILL BE A
FALL LIKE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

WILL LEAN TWRD GFS/HPC BLEND THROUGH SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER RGN AND SFC LOW NEAR NEW
ENGLAND COAST FOR A RAW CHILLY WEEKEND...FINALLY CLEARING ON
MONDAY. HWVR AT THIS TIME ITS TO BE CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER.

GFS/NAM/HPC PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ALONG. 17 OF 20
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE KEEP IT DRY FROM FRI NIGHT ONWARD.
ONLY 3 HAVE ANY QPF. SO THE WORST CASE IN THE GFS IS SOME CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY MRNG. OVERALL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST TO FCA BY TUES. AT 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS FROM
GRT PLAINS TO GRTLKS.

PERIOD WILL START OFF PARTLY CLOUDY W/BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A BREEZE
CONTINUING SUNDAY. SCT FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIR TRRN. IN TIME THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO BRILLIANT SUNSHINE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABV BY TUESDAY AND WED.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MIDNIGHT SHIFT GUID.

THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL
START ON MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM
COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITE THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR SCATTERED VARIABLE BROKEN AT KALB...SOLID IFR
AT KPSF AND KGFL AND SOLID MVFR AT KPOU. SOME FOG IS OCCURRING AT
KPSF. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 13-15Z...LEAVING A
MIX OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AT ALL
SITES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MUCH
OF TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE...JUST PUTTING VCSH
UNTIL REGIONS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE OBSERVED AND
MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED LATER TODAY.  WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BUT AGAIN...SCATTERED
NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS PREVENTING ACKNOWLEDGING IN TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10MPH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING COULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT WITHIN
BANK RISES ARE LIKELY IN LARGER RIVERS.

3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.0 INCH RANGE AT
THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER