National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 190543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW...WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH A RETURN S/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPACTING ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH MILDER CONDITIONS THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. SKIES ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS A BAND OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AT 500 HPA IS MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WHILE THE KENX RADAR
SHOWS NO ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA YET...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BY AROUND 6 AM. THE WINDS WERE
KEPT IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO
THE FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO THE
MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS NOW
FORECASTING A RAINY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30
AND 40 PERCENT BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND STLT TRENDS...
THE 12Z GFS RUN ALREADY SEEMS TO BE IN ERROR SO HAVE GENERALLY
DISCOUNTED THE RAINY DAY SCENARIO. (THE GFS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE PCPN REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND ALSO MOVING FURTHER
AWAY THIS EVENING).

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE SURGING TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATING
DEWPOINTS RISING TO 60 OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THAT
TIME...THEREBY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT DURING
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
WORK WEEK.  A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...TO PROVIDE A
NICE START TO THE WEEKEND THAT FOLLOWS.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS NORTHERNMOST EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE.  HIGHS
WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTH AND VALLEYS...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  POST
COLD-FRONTAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COOLER...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN PRIMARILY THE 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY FOR THE PERIOD ARE LOWER 70S AND
AROUND 50...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LOWER
LEVEL MVFR STRATUS WAS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  THIS MVFR DECK WILL PRODUCE
SCT-NUM SHOWERS FOR THE REGION AS THE SURFACE WARM INTERACTS WITH
THIS DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT KPOU-KPSF WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND UPSLOPE MAY LOWER THE CLOUD CIGS WITHIN
THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL EITHER WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF THE
REGION AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  THIS IS
WHERE FLIGHT TRENDS FROM LOW END MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME MORE PREVALENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS OVERNIGHT /MANY
LOCATIONS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE/...WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...MVFR...CHC IFR. SLGT CHC OR CHC -SHRAS.
MON-MON NIGHT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRAS/SLIGHT CHC -TSRAS.
TUE-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND SOUTH
THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE 90 PERCENT OR MORE TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN 50 AND 70
PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERALL QPF ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM