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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 191904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
304 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring rain showers to the region this afternoon
into this evening. Behind the front, breezy and cool conditions
are expected for Saturday, with a partly sunny afternoon and
some isolated showers. It will remain mostly dry Sunday into
Monday with a mostly clear sky, but temperatures will continue
to be a little below average for late April.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers associated with a cold front have reached the western
Mohawk valley and southwestern Adirondacks. Breaks in the
overcast have developed over eastern areas. Showers will
continue to move east and clouds will also increase over eastern
areas. Winds will remain gusty out of the southeast until a few
hours after sunset.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface cold front slowly moves across the area tonight which
will bring showers to most of the area. Precipitation will
be light with forecast precipitation generally less than a
third of an inch. a few spots could see up to a half an inch of
liquid precipitation.

On Saturday, sky cover will gradually improve through the
morning hours, as the cold front continues to move east.
However, skies won`t clear out completely, as the upper level
trough and cold pool move overhead. The afternoon will likely
see increasing clouds and some isolated showers as the cooling
temps aloft and cyclonic flow promote the development of
cu/stratocu. While most areas will be dry on Saturday, a few
pop-up showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out by Saturday
afternoon, especially over northern areas. Some pea size hail
will be possible from any shower as a -30C cold pool drifts
across the northern part of the area. Temps will be a little
below normal thanks to the upper level cold pool in place. With
the decent mixing, winds will be gusty and breezy by Saturday
afternoon, with some westerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. It
will remain a little breezy into Saturday night with some
lingering clouds, although it should be dry with no precip
across the area.

Dry weather is expected to continue for Sunday into Sunday
night. Upper level trough will continue to be located over the
Northeastern US, although the core of the cold pool will remain
north of the area over Quebec. Another frontal boundary will be
passing across the area, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air,
but this moisture-starved front won`t be producing any precip
for our area. As a result, skies will be mostly clear for Sunday
into Sunday night, although it will on the cooler side. It will
be breezy once again on Sunday, especially during the afternoon
and early evening with gusts around 30 mph.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly fair weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as the
forecast area is forecast to be under weak upper ridging.
Temperatures on Monday look to start cold, but rise to near
normal. On Tuesday, heights rise and look to be be slightly
above normal over the southeastern part of the area by
afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday should be near to slightly
above normal depending on sunshine. By Wednesday, the next upper
trough starts to cross the region with a strong cold front
which will likely bring rain showers to the area. Rain showers
could end as snow showers Wednesday night across the high
terrain as temperatures are forecast to be well below normal
behind the front. Cold weather and some possible mountain snow
showers linger into Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Saturday...VFR conditions with BKN-OVC cigs in
place to start this afternoon. However, a cold front approaching
from the west will bring scattered to numerous showers mainly
from later this evening into the overnight hours. A first batch
of showers will move across KGFL through this afternoon, but
will be very light, with perhaps some brief MVFR cigs. A more
widespread batch of showers is expected to develop late this
evening and last through much of the overnight as the cold
front`s progress slows. Solid MVFR conditions are expected
during this time.

Conditions should improve to VFR by around 12z Saturday, as
showers end and the cold front pushes east of the region. Mid
level clouds could linger into the afternoon, but with cigs
remaining VFR.

Winds will be south-southeast into early this evening around
8-12 kt with occasional gusts near 20 kt, shifting to the south-
southwest overnight around 5-10 kt. Winds on Saturday will
become west- northwest and increase to around 10-15 kt with gust
around 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...JPV