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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 151740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH. THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL START
CREEPING BACK TOWARD US LATE SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 135 AM...LINE OF -SHRA AND TSTMS ORIENTATED NW TO SE AND TIED
TO OCCLUDED FRONT FROM NR MSS TO LITCHFIELD CO...MOVING EAST AT
30KTS...AND SHOULD CLEAR NYS BY 4PM AND FCA BY 5PM. THERE MAY BE
SCT -SHRA EARLY THIS EVNG..OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY
DURING THE EVNG HRS FROM W TO EAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY BOTH 500HPA CUT OFF AND ITS VERTICAL SFC LOW MOVE EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES LEAVING THE FCA IN A NW
FLOW.  THE GUID SUGGESTS A SECONDARY CDFNT TIED TO ONE OF THE
500HPA SHORT WVS PASSING THROUGH. BUT ATTM THE ONLY IMPACTS ACROSS
THE FCA WILL BE INCRG CLOUDS ALONG THE N TIER THU AFTN. REST OF
AREA WILL BE PC TO MS. FCA WILL BE UNDER RATHER HEALTHY WIND
GRADIENT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS REGION IS BETWEEN LOW
IN MARITIMES AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE GRTLKS.

THE 500HPA CUT OFF LOW IN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE KEEPS OVERALL 500
HPA FLOW FAST AND NW ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SFC HIGH TO BUILD FROM
THE GRTLKS INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SUPPRESS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA. SINCE
THIS AIR MASS IN MARITIME PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMAL..WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SIGNIFY THE START OF A WARMING
TREND...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF SHOWER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH A SURGE OF WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THAT THE GFS HAS A FEW WRINKLES
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLASSIC UPPER RIDGE WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT WARMUP...BUT
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO START FLATTENING BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 00Z/01Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW...THE ONLY DECENT
CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES
UNTIL AROUND 19Z OR 20Z AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCATION IS UNCERAIN SO HAVE ONLY
INDICATED VCSH IN THE REST OF FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THIS EVENING.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLR TO ONLY SCT CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGHTHE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT 10
TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AT KPOU. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT
THE SAME SPEEDS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...THEN
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 28 KTS. AT
KPOU THE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LITTLE WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU AFTN...VFR. NO SIG WX. WINDY.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR...SLGT CHC -SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...
     WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE 40 PERCENTILE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WIND GUSTS.
MAXIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD REBOUND TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED.

THURSDAY...A BREEZY DRY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO
25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP TO
AN AVERAGE 30 PERCENT. DEPENDING ON GREEN-UP STATUS FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MIGHT HAVE TO BE BROACHED. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY WITH LESS WIND AND MORE NORMAL
RECOVERIES AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. WITH MOST
AREAS IN GREEN UP...THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT
ON WATERSHEDS IN OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DIMINISHING FLOWS IN
AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.

START DATES FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE AS FOLLOWS...

MAY 15TH...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY VT...THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

MAY 20TH...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

MAY 25TH...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

DURING THE GROWING SEASON FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 33 TO 36 DEGREES RANGE.

THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR A GIVEN AREA IS BASED ON THE
MEDIAN DATE OF THE LAST SPRING FREEZE BASED ON 1981-2010 NORMALS AND
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...